ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#441 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:33 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:I know shear can change and fast, but it's only a day or two away from the expanding shear area. I wonder if this is what causes the (at least temporary) dissipation that models are seeing. It's already ragged as hell, high shear will kick it in the teeth.

https://s22.postimg.cc/w55qb6plt/wave.png


I remember back when the Caribbean was a favorable area for development. It seems like for the past several years now its been a shredder, though.


Well, the post 2004/2005 steroid era there are just two systems to come out of the Caribbean (genesis there) that impacted the United States. Yes, I know this is just not a US forum. But the US for context here .... by my estimate....

2012 - Sandy
2017 - Harvey


I can still remember Wilma. Hard to believe she formed in the Caribbean like that. The Caribbean has been loaded with shear ever since then.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#442 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:52 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#443 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:31 pm

FWIW, 00Z GFS dissipates Isaac in about 66 hours, but brings what's left of him into the tip of the Yuacatan.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#444 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:45 am

Isaac has been increasing convection in the most unfavorable part of the Caribbean. Shear is forecasted to lessen and Isaac may strengthen over the Western Caribbean. It may then feel the weakness of departing Florence followed by a trough sweeping south into the SE US. This would pull Isaac into the Gulf of Mexico, especially if it gains strength.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/jzbvgNckHM5wFPYL6
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#445 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:27 am

Cpv17 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
I remember back when the Caribbean was a favorable area for development. It seems like for the past several years now its been a shredder, though.


Well, the post 2004/2005 steroid era there are just two systems to come out of the Caribbean (genesis there) that impacted the United States. Yes, I know this is just not a US forum. But the US for context here .... by my estimate....

2012 - Sandy
2017 - Harvey


I can still remember Wilma. Hard to believe she formed in the Caribbean like that. The Caribbean has been loaded with shear ever since then.


Horrible year. I worked in a warehouse..a small two stoplight town in the panhandle.we boarded up for Arlene, took the boards off, re boarded up for Dennis, Took the boards off, re-boarded up for Emily....they told us to take the boards off and we nearly had the employee's riot and the boss decided to just leave them on the rest of the season. Great Call :lol:

Models were not very good back then. The cone's were a heck of alot wider than they are now
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#446 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:02 pm

Look at this model consensus! :lol:

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#447 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:05 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
I remember back when the Caribbean was a favorable area for development. It seems like for the past several years now its been a shredder, though.


Well, the post 2004/2005 steroid era there are just two systems to come out of the Caribbean (genesis there) that impacted the United States. Yes, I know this is just not a US forum. But the US for context here .... by my estimate....

2012 - Sandy
2017 - Harvey


I can still remember Wilma. Hard to believe she formed in the Caribbean like that. The Caribbean has been loaded with shear ever since then.

Matthew in 2016 was another exception. Although it dealt with southwesterly shear itself, it managed to reach Category 5 status in the central Caribbean. Maria was also a Category 5 over the extreme eastern Caribbean but did not affect the CONUS.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#448 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:11 pm

12z models shifted north again let’s see what recon finds
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#449 Postby otowntiger » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:54 pm

SFLcane wrote:12z models shifted north again let’s see what recon finds
apparently nothin. no LLc, according to wxman57. :D
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#450 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:19 pm

Keep an eye whatever is left of Isaac when it enters
the Gulf.

quote="otowntiger"]
SFLcane wrote:12z models shifted north again let’s see what recon finds
apparently nothin. no LLc, according to wxman57. :D[/quote]
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#451 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:03 pm

The Euro does some really strange stuff with the remnants of Isaac at the end of the run. It has it swirling around in the central GoM due south of Louisiana, not really moving.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#452 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:31 pm

becasue of the high pressure, cold front coming but it isn't strong enough like the GFS is showing so it gets stuck
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#453 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:41 pm

push remnants into florida
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#454 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:09 pm

ECMF Ensembles not impressed

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#455 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:10 pm

GFS Ensembles also not impressed

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#456 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:33 pm

4th GFS run in a row that kills him right around Jamaica.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#457 Postby CDO62 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:29 pm

SoupBone wrote:4th GFS run in a row that kills him right around Jamaica.


Now that Isaac is stronger than what the models were predicting, lets see what the 00z models do.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#458 Postby Craters » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:28 pm

SoupBone wrote:4th GFS run in a row that kills him right around Jamaica.


Right about where your mets said he'd kick the bucket on Sunday, if I recall correctly...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#459 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:49 pm

So far, the 00Z GFS poofs him SE of Jamaica on Sunday. 5th run in a row like this.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#460 Postby SoupBone » Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:31 am

00Z Euro poofs it between 24-48 hours from now.
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