EPAC: PAUL - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: PAUL - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:01 pm

EP, 92, 2018090518, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1070W, 20, 1008, DB


A broad area of low pressure is centered about 350 miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The shower activity associated
with this low has increased a little during the past several hours
and the upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for
development. A tropical depression could form by late this
weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly toward
the west-northwest at about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:19 am

18z GFS doesn’t develop this.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#3 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:21 am

Yellow Evan wrote:18z GFS doesn’t develop this.

good! :P
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:55 am

A broad area of low pressure is centered a few hundred miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The shower activity associated
with this low is gradually becoming better organized, and
environmental conditions appear to be conducive for continued
development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this
weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly toward
the west-northwest at about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:00 pm

A broad area of low pressure is centered a few hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The shower activity associated
with this low is gradually becoming better organized, and
environmental conditions appear to be conducive for continued
development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this
weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly toward
the west-northwest at about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:30 pm

The broad area of low pressure that NHC has been tracking for a
few days is now located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of Baja California peninsula. Although the shower activity has
not become any better organized during the past few hours,
environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development. A
tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend or early next
week while the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest at
about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#7 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:20 am

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have become better organized today.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or
so while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, away from the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:46 am

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of organization,
and it appears that a tropical depression could be forming. If
this trend continues, then advisories would be initiated on this
system later today. The low is expected to move northwestward at
about 10 mph during the next couple of days, away from the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:40 am

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018

The area of low pressure that NHC has been tracking for several
days has enough organized deep convection this morning to be
classified as a tropical depression. Some northeasterly shear is
affecting the cyclone, with the apparent center on the northeastern
side of a growing area of deep convection. The initial wind speed
is set to 30 kt, in accordance with the Dvorak classification from
TAFB. Gradual strengthening is forecast while the cyclone remains
over warm waters within a light-to-moderate shear environment.
After 72 hours, the water temperatures drop off quite a bit and
weakening should begin. The NHC forecast is close to, but a little
above, the model consensus near peak intensity to account for the
low bias the model guidance has had for many eastern Pacific storms
this year.

An uncertain initial motion estimate is 290/10. All of the model
guidance turn the cyclone northwestward by tomorrow as the cyclone
rounds the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge located over
Mexico. A turn back toward the west-northwest is anticipated in a
few days due to the system coming under the influence of the primary
eastern Pacific subtropical ridge. For a first advisory, the model
guidance isn't in terrible disagreement, so the NHC prediction will
lie near close to the various consensus and corrected-consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 16.1N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.6N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 17.7N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 20.1N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 21.5N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Tropical Storm

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:11 am

Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018

Satellite data indicate that depression has strengthened. The
cyclone has a large curved band that wraps across the western half
of the circulation, but banding features remain limited to the east
of the center. A partial ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed
30-35 kt winds in the southeastern quadrant. Based on that data and
the 2.5/35 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial intensity
is increased to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Paul.

Paul will likely strengthen some more during the next couple of days
while it remains over warm waters and in a relatively moist
environment. However, significant strengthening appears unlikely
because of continued moderate east-northeasterly shear during the
next day or so. The opportunity for intensification should end in a
few days when the system moves over SSTs cooler than 26 deg C and
into a drier and more stable air mass. The NHC intensity forecast
is again nudged downward, but it still lies at the high end of the
model guidance.

Satellite fixes suggest that Paul has turned sharper to the
northwest than expected. Smoothing through the fixes yields an
initial motion estimate of 320/7. A continued northwestward motion
is expected during the next day or two. After that time, Paul
should turn to the west-northwest in response to a mid-level ridge
to its north and then slow down by the end of the forecast period
when it becomes shallow and is steered by the low-level flow. The
NHC track has been adjusted northward to account for the change in
the initial motion and position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 17.1N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 18.2N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 19.4N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 20.6N 120.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 21.4N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 22.6N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 23.5N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 24.5N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Tropical Storm

#11 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 2:20 pm

Paul doesn't get much attention due to all the activity in the ATL, but he is strengthening too.
Up to 40 knots at 18Z.

EP, 18, 2018090918, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1185W, 40, 1002, TS
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby Astromanía » Sun Sep 09, 2018 3:22 pm

Could Paul became a hurricane?
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 09, 2018 3:33 pm

Astromanía wrote:Could Paul became a hurricane?


Odds have been slowly dropping over the last several days.
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:09 pm

Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018

ASCAT data from shortly before 1800 UTC indicated that Paul was
slightly stronger than previously estimated, with several 35-40 kt
vectors observed in the southeast quadrant. Based on this data, the
initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt. In an effort to
maintain some continuity, and since the ASCAT data nearly supports
45 kt, very slight strengthening is still forecast over the next 24
h, but little change in strength is realistically expected.
Beginning in a day or two, a combination of dry, stable air, and
decreasing SSTs should cause Paul to gradually weaken, eventually
causing the cyclone to become a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower
than the previous one, but is still near the high end of the
intensity guidance. It is certainly possible Paul could weaken
sooner than currently indicated.

Paul has sped up slightly but is still moving northwestward, now at
around 9 kt. Almost no change has been made to the official track
forecast. Paul should continue moving northwestward for the next
day or so, before gradually turning toward the west as the weakening
cyclone becomes increasingly steered by low-level easterly flow to
the north. The track guidance is in reasonably good agreement
through about 72 h, at which point there are differences mainly
related to how fast the cyclone will weaken. The NHC forecast
remains close to HCCA and the other consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 18.5N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 19.5N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 20.5N 120.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 21.4N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 21.9N 124.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 22.8N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 23.5N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:37 pm

Paul is dying quickly!
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