ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:32 pm

Over west Africa.
AL, 93, 2018090618, , BEST, 0, 130N, 160W, 20, 1007, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#2 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:58 pm

I must say, the Storm2K header image updated really fast with this one! :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#3 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:00 pm

At this rate, this invest will be Helene first. This means 92L will get the name with the infamous letter I.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#4 Postby ouragans » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:06 pm

It's the first time that I see the NHC giving an Invest number in a tweet...

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1037812725097918464


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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#5 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:45 pm

ouragans wrote:It's the first time that I see the NHC giving an Invest number in a tweet...

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1037812725097918464



Welcome the NHC my friend!
Hi ouragans :) , what are you latest thoughts about 92 L?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#6 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:57 pm

This one looks like it has potential to develop very quickly. The models seem to show this passing south of the Cabo Verde islands as a strong TS or perhaps a minimal hurricane, though I have doubts on this idea because models often develop African waves too fast. This may even be Helene if it develops before 92L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#7 Postby ouragans » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:12 pm

Gustywind wrote:Hi ouragans :) , what are you latest thoughts about 92 L?

Answer on the other topic :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#8 Postby shiny-pebble » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:50 pm

Wonder if we'll see PTC 8/9 by tomorrow.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:51 pm

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave and an accompanying low pressure system near the
west coast of Africa is producing a large area of thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the
weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward over the
far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Interests in the Cabo Verde
Islands should monitor the progress of this system, and potential
tropical cyclone advisories could be issued on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#10 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:07 pm

Getting a little crowded down there off the coast of Africa.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#11 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:11 pm

Hardly any SAL around this one.
Arguably the first wave of the season coming off the coast with minimal dust to fight.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#12 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:36 pm

ouragans wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Hi ouragans :) , what are you latest thoughts about 92 L?

Answer on the other topic :wink:

Ok thanks! I've made a mistake so sorry :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#13 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:40 pm

Honestly some of the coldest cloud tops I can remember seeing in the NAtl.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#14 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:13 pm

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
850 PM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018


A tropical wave just inland along the coast of western Africa hasits axis near 15W from 04N to 20N, with a 1008 mb low on the axis
at 14N15W. This system is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Latest satellite long term animation indicates that this system is
exhibiting signs of organization.
Large clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are observed in advance of this
system from the coastal sections of Senegal to Sierra Leone, west to 18W and eastward to within 240 nm inland the coast of Africa.
A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the wave and associated low pressure moves
westward or west-northwestward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
The chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is in the medium range.
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#15 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:06 pm

Should become Helene within the next 2-3 days. It is really becoming debatable if anything will ever become of 92L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#16 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:02 am

This is one of the most monstrous TWs I've seen just emerge off the African coast since 2006 when I started. Very high quality. Amazingly cold cloud tops. A TCFA has been issued and it may still be on the coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#17 Postby djones65 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:31 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#18 Postby bob rulz » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:16 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Should become Helene within the next 2-3 days. It is really becoming debatable if anything will ever become of 92L.


At this rate it will be Helene later today.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#19 Postby bob rulz » Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:22 am

Hard to know without ASCAT (anybody know if there's been any ASCAT passes?) but this honestly looks like a TD or even TS already. Unbelievable.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#20 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:24 am

New ASCAT data for the area will be available in a few hours. Hopefully the pass doesn't miss.
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