ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#21 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:08 am

4.5 hrs ago, convection off-the-scale on 85GHz

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#22 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:11 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#23 Postby otowntiger » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:13 am

With this one being so strong so soon doesn’t it portend a much sooner and solid recurve? Anyone have any early model data?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#24 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:15 am

Obviously trying to punch out a strong warm core.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#25 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:19 am

otowntiger wrote:With this one being so strong so soon doesn’t it portend a much sooner and solid recurve? Anyone have any early model data?


00Z GFS, straight west until 40W, then a sharp turn poleward.
00Z Euro, a bit more NW track and then poleward bound around 40W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#26 Postby otowntiger » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:31 am

GCANE wrote:
otowntiger wrote:With this one being so strong so soon doesn’t it portend a much sooner and solid recurve? Anyone have any early model data?


00Z GFS, straight west until 40W, then a sharp turn poleward.
00Z Euro, a bit more NW track and then poleward bound around 40W.
thanks. That sounds reasonable and typical for a wave in this area.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#27 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:16 am

8 AM TWO:

2. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located just off the west
coast of Africa. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form later today or tonight while the low moves westward or
west-northwestward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#28 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:22 am

This is one impressive wave. Don't suspect it will take too long to reach TD status.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#29 Postby plasticup » Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:22 am

GCANE wrote:Obviously trying to punch out a strong warm core.


Looks like it has a little rotation under that convection, too. Could easily be classified today.
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Re: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#30 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:34 am

Everything about this system screams, "Future long tracked, high ACE, major hurricane."

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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#31 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:41 am

93L is now Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight !


BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 17.8W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#32 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:41 am

616
WTNT43 KNHC 071437
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure that moved off the west coast of Africa has developed a
closed circulation that appears to be well defined. However, the
convective organization, given Dvorak classifications of only T1.0,
do not support calling the system a tropical cyclone at this point.
However, given that the system is expected to be a tropical storm
near the southern Cabo Verde Islands in 36 to 48 hours, advisories
are being initiated on this system as a potential tropical cyclone
at this time, and a tropical storm warning has been issued for those
islands.

Environmental conditions of light to moderate easterly shear and
SSTs of 27-28C should support development of this system, and the
NHC forecast shows it becoming a tropical storm by 12 hours.
Gradual strengthening is indicated by the bulk of the intensity
guidance through the next 3-4 days. After that time, the shear is
forecast to increase and the system will be moving into somewhat
cooler waters, so some weakening is expected by day 5. The NHC
forecast is close to the latest HCCA guidance and a little higher
than the IVCN consensus.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 275/09 given
that the surface circulation is just forming. The synoptic pattern
over the eastern Atlantic features a ridge to the north of the
disturbance, which is expected to weaken by the end of the period.
This steering pattern should result in a westward to west-
northwestward motion for the next 72 hours with an increase in
forward speed, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a
slightly more poleward motion as the system responds to the weakness
in the ridge. The initial NHC track forecast is close to the latest
HCCA track consensus aid and near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 13.1N 17.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 08/0000Z 13.3N 18.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 08/1200Z 13.8N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 14.2N 22.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 14.6N 25.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 16.0N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 18.0N 37.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 20.0N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#33 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:42 am

Gustywind wrote:93L is now Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight !


BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 17.8W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


Maybe we could see Helen very soon today... let's wait and see.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#34 Postby Blinhart » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:44 am

We have seen plenty of waves come off Africa looking impressive like this one. We need to see in 12 to 24 hours if it holds together then we can talk about a potential ACE pumping storm.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#35 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:45 am

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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#36 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:49 am

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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#37 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:16 am

If you're late to the party like me you may have not gotten the memo that SSD put their floaters back up:
302 KB. Source: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/93L.html
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#38 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:13 pm

Will be a TD at 5 PM.

AL, 08, 2018090718, , BEST, 0, 131N, 183W, 30, 1002, TD
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ATL: HELENE - Advisories

#39 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:36 pm

.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Advisories

#40 Postby StormClouds63 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:39 pm

So Number 8 will be Helene, and Number 9 to be Isaac? Just checking.
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