ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#81 Postby KWT » Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:54 pm

Strengthening but such an odd looking system right now. Actually reminds me of those large WPAC systems that struggle to put an inner core together.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#82 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:08 pm

What's this talk of a loop?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#83 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:12 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:What's this talk of a loop?


Go look at the Models Topic.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#84 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:48 pm

Some models are indicating the future Joyce/Kirk in the NATL to do a possible Fujiwhara with Helene

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#85 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:05 pm

Up to 75 knots per 00z ATCF. Huge eye developing.

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#86 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:40 pm

I can't even remember the last time I've seen a NAtl system take on this type of sprawling WPac look.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#87 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:46 pm

What type of sheer is ahead of this system?? How much dry air and Saharan Dust is out there? They way this one is ramping up could this one end up trying to challenge Tip for all the records?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#88 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:50 pm

I was thinking earlier how much Helene reminded me of a WPAC system, pretty neat. Too bad she won't get much attention on here unless she makes major.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#89 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:55 pm

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories

#90 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:39 pm

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

Satellite images indicate that Helene continues to strengthen.
During the past several hours, a large band of deep convection has
completely wrapped around the center resulting in the formation of
a large ragged eye. Although there are well-defined outer bands in
the southern portion of the circulation, there are a few dry slots
just beyond the inner core. The latest Dvorak classifications have
increased to 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and therefore, the
initial intensity is adjusted upward to 75 kt.

Helene is currently in a low wind shear environment and over fairly
warm 27-28 deg C SSTs. These conditions are expected to prevail
for another 24-36 hours, so additional strengthening seems likely
during that period. Beyond that time, however, the environment is
expected to gradually become less favorable for Helene with
south-southwesterly shear increasing, mid-level humidities falling,
and SSTs lowering along the future path. All of these conditions
suggest a steady weakening trend beginning in a couple of days, and
the NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the latest model
guidance.

The hurricane continues to pull away from the Cabo Verde Islands,
and the initial motion estimate is 285/11 kt. A continued
west-northwest motion at about the same forward speed is expected
for about two days while a mid-level ridge remains the primary
steering feature. After that time, a significant weakness in the
ridge, caused by a cut off deep-layer low pressure system, should
promote a northward turn with a gradual increase in forward speed.
The models are in relatively good agreement on this scenario, but
they differ on when and where Helene makes the turn. The NHC track
forecast is adjusted a little to the east at the latter forecast
times, but it still favors the left side of the guidance envelope
to be near the HCCA model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 13.9N 27.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 14.4N 29.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 15.1N 31.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.7N 34.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 16.4N 36.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 19.0N 38.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 23.5N 40.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 29.6N 41.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#91 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:55 pm

What a cool looking storm.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#92 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:59 pm

Blinhart wrote:What type of sheer is ahead of this system?? How much dry air and Saharan Dust is out there? They way this one is ramping up could this one end up trying to challenge Tip for all the records?

Nah, there probably isn't enough heat content in this portion of the NAtl, and even if there was, Helene won't be over it long enough.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#93 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:02 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
Blinhart wrote:What type of sheer is ahead of this system?? How much dry air and Saharan Dust is out there? They way this one is ramping up could this one end up trying to challenge Tip for all the records?

Nah, there probably isn't enough heat content in this portion of the NAtl, and even if there was, Helene won't be over it long enough.


I figured that, but you never know what will happen now since all systems are trying to ignore the history of climatology.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#94 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:03 am

Image

This sprawling structure may keep this in check for quite a bit actually.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories

#95 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:55 am

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Little change in the Helene's cloud pattern has been observed
during the past 6 hours. The earlier mentioned ragged banding-type
eye feature is still apparent in the enhanced infrared BD-curve
imagery and a recent SSMI/S microwave overpass. The initial
intensity is held at 75 kt, and is based on the subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates.

Helene is moving within a fairly ripe environment and over warm
oceanic sea surface temperatures. These conducive conditions
should promote additional strengthening over the next 36 hours.
Afterward, increasing south-southwesterly shear, lower
mid-tropospheric moisture, and cooler water are expected to induce
weakening, however gradually, through day 5. The official forecast
follows suit and is similar to the better performing IVCN intensity
consensus model.

Helene's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
285/15 kt, and this general motion is forecast during the next 48
hours. Beyond that period, a break in the subtropical ridge to the
northwest of Paul, created by a mid- to upper-level cut-off low
digging southward, should induce a northward turn with a gradual
increase in forward motion. The large-scale models all indicate
this change in the synoptic steering pattern, although there is some
disparity on how soon Helene will turn toward the north. The NHC
track is quite close to the previous forecast and lies between the
consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 14.3N 28.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.8N 30.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 15.5N 33.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 16.3N 35.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 17.2N 37.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 20.3N 39.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 25.3N 40.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 31.2N 41.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#96 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:00 am

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#97 Postby wx98 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:46 am

NHC just jumped her up to 90 kt Cat 2; doing its best to keep up with big sister Florence.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories

#98 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:39 am

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Helene's cloud pattern has become much better organized during the
past few hours, with a clear 20 n mi wide eye seen in Meteosat
infrared imagery, and a clear eye noted in a 1135 UTC AMSU overpass.
A Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both T5.0/90 knots
at 1200 UTC, and that is the initial intensity for this advisory.
Helene will remain in an environment that should support some
additional strengthening for the next 12 hours or so, with very low
shear and SSTs of 27C or above. After that time, the SSTs cool
quickly and the shear increases dramatically by 36 hours, which
should induce steady weakening. Late in the period, the shear
continues, and while SSTs increase the atmosphere dries out, and the
intensity is held steady at day 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is
above most of the guidance through 24 hours to account for the
recent intensification of the storm, but then is close to or
slightly above HCCA and IVCN.

The initial motion estimate is 285/14. The subtropical ridge north
of Helene will gradually weaken as an upper-level trough digs
southward around 40W. This pattern will cause Helene to slow down
and gradually recurve during the forecast period, with a faster
northward motion expected at days 4 and 5 as Helene interacts with
the aforementioned upper-level trough. While there is significant
variability between the various global models in the exact
evolution of the upper-level pattern, the track model guidance is
in generally good agreement on this evolution, although the UKMET,
its ensemble mean and the GEFS mean are notable outliers to the
right. The new NHC track was not changed much from the previous one
and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is close to
HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 14.6N 30.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.2N 32.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 15.9N 34.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 16.8N 36.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 18.0N 37.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 21.5N 39.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 27.0N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 32.5N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#99 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:07 am

11AM advisory now forecasts Helene to become a major. I'm actually a bit disappoint that Isaac is struggling right now which we may not see three simultaneous major hurricanes, but that's good news for the islands :P
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#100 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:41 am

It's amazing, though, to have two years straight where plausibly we could almost have three majors active simultaneously. September '17 and '18 are just nutso
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.


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