ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#661 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:11 pm

The more convective bursts like this Isaac has, the more likely he is to survive and make it to better conditions in the Western Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#662 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:46 pm

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Advisories

#663 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:46 pm

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

A burst of deep convection has developed and covered the previously
exposed center of Isaac this evening. However, there is still
evidence of northwesterly shear over the cyclone as there is a
rather sharp edge to the convective mass and the cirrus is quickly
blowing off toward the southeast. A recent ASCAT pass shows that
the circulation is not particularly well defined, but it did show
some light west or west-southwesterly winds, enough to keep the
system classified as a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT also revealed
winds of 30-32 kt, so the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt, which
is also an average of the latest Dvorak current intensity numbers.

Moderate to strong northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are
likely to cause Isaac to weaken to a tropical depression or even
become an open wave within the next day or so. When Isaac reaches
the west-central Caribbean Sea in a couple of days, the shear may
relax somewhat and the global models suggest that there will be an
increase in mid-level moisture. These conditions could allow for
regeneration of the system, but given the uncertainty in whether
Isaac will survive long enough to take advantage of these
conditions, the official forecast still calls for dissipation like
most of the guidance.

Isaac continues moving westward at about 14 kt. The system should
move generally westward over the next couple of days as it is
steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. Later in the
period, the models show that Isaac could gain some latitude, but
the official forecast is along the southern side of the guidance
since a weaker system is likely to move more westward. The new NHC
track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 14.9N 64.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 15.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 15.0N 69.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 15.0N 71.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 15.2N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 16.3N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 17.7N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#664 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:32 pm

FWIW, the 00Z GFS dissipates Isaac in about 66 hours, but brings what's left of him into the tip of the Yuacatan.

Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...ISAAC MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...BANDS OF RAIN LINGERING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 64.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Last edited by SoupBone on Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#665 Postby BZSTORM » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:34 pm

MississippiWx wrote:The more convective bursts like this Isaac has, the more likely he is to survive and make it to better conditions in the Western Caribbean.

Those of us in Central America and Mexico on the Western Caribbean would be happy to see NHC forecast of dissipation at 5 days while still in middle of the Caribbean, and him making it to say Bay of Honduras which is pretty warm right now and we know how cyclones just love those hotter waters.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#666 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:37 pm

If I had to bet $10 dollars I'd bet that it survives and makes landfall on the United states gulf coast.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#667 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:45 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:If I had to bet $10 dollars I'd bet that it survives and makes landfall on the United states gulf coast.


And I'd double that to $20 and say I have no idea. What are you basing this on?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#668 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:02 am

I personally wouldn't complain if it struggled into Mobile Bay as a weak tropical storm and made its way up here; September and October last few years have been horrifically dry (for super humid subtropics, at least) whenever no tropical systems changed that pattern (November 2016 Gatlinburg wildfire, anyone?) but we've had Alberto and Gordon already this year so a third would make it a rather active year for central AL.

I am honestly surprised it's doing as well as it is, looks like extremely dry air to the north for now isn't killing it off much and it might well hold together as a coherent system better than I figured.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#669 Postby caneman » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:07 am

It's still holding nice convection. I'm giving it better than even odds
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#670 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:51 am

SoupBone wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:If I had to bet $10 dollars I'd bet that it survives and makes landfall on the United states gulf coast.


And I'd double that to $20 and say I have no idea. What are you basing this on?



1. The healthy number of intensity models showing strengthening
2. The fact that it is blowing up convection in the "dead" zone of the eastern caribbean.
3. The fact that shear is decreasing and the nhc states that it will continue to become more favorable as it moves towards the western caribbean.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#671 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:54 am

Image

Some of the better intensity models like the ship, Lgem, tvcn all show strengthening.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#672 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:46 am

A few hours old, but ASCAT confirms Isaac is still closed, and albeit weak, the westerly winds extend a good deal south of the center.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#673 Postby StruThiO » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:48 am

Well the way its maintaining convection it may yet survive the journey to the Gulf..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#674 Postby StruThiO » Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:08 am

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#675 Postby artist » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:10 am

I hope everyone in the islands faired well from Isaac.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#676 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:28 am

artist wrote:I hope everyone in the islands faired well from Isaac.

YES! We have been fully spared from poor TS Isaac! Thanks to you Isaac polite little boy. I hope that Isaac stay at this status along it treks, but only Mother Nature knows why. Even rainfall values are extremely week only 45 millimeters in a area close in hig elevation close to our volcano la Soufriere , elsewhere 5 millimiters in some others areas. So good excellent news, no damages, schools are open, all is at green code! :D :)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#677 Postby artist » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:35 am

Gustywind wrote:
artist wrote:I hope everyone in the islands faired well from Isaac.

YES! We have been fully spared from poor TS Isaac! Thanks to you Isaac polite little boy. I hope that Isaac stay at this status along it treks, but only Mother Nature knows why. Even rainfall values are extremely week only 45 millimeters in a area close in hig elevation close to our volcano la Soufriere , elsewhere 5 millimiters in some others areas. So good excellent news, no damages, schools are open, all is at green code! :D :)

Such good news, Gusty! Now, no more for you all this year! :sun:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#678 Postby StruThiO » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:38 am

Lot of convection much closer to LLC now..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#679 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:39 am

artist wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
artist wrote:I hope everyone in the islands faired well from Isaac.

YES! We have been fully spared from poor TS Isaac! Thanks to you Isaac polite little boy. I hope that Isaac stay at this status along it treks, but only Mother Nature knows why. Even rainfall values are extremely week only 45 millimeters in a area close in hig elevation close to our volcano la Soufriere , elsewhere 5 millimiters in some others areas. So good excellent news, no damages, schools are open, all is at green code! :D :)

Such good news, Gusty! Now, no more for you all this year! :sun:

Thanks a lot artist, it's always a pleasure to read your positives posts! We appreciate us in the islands! :) :) Hope you all the very best too this year :sun: :D . Best regards!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#680 Postby StruThiO » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:45 am

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