ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3641 Postby Condor » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:42 am

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3642 Postby stormhunter7 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:43 am

From about 890mb to 950mb on dropsonde 5 on afrecon... NW eyewall..... Storms are going up where the clouder cloud tops started in recent sat updates... Lines up perfect with that strong convection firing. Florence making one last run I believe.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3643 Postby stormhunter7 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:48 am

A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 4:41:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 32.24N 74.06W
B. Center Fix Location: 225 statute miles (362 km) to the SSE (158°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,729m (8,953ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 957mb (28.26 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 55° at 14kts (From the NE at 16mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 68kts (78.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the S (173°) of center fix at 4:33:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 271° at 73kts (From the W at 84.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the S (172°) of center fix at 4:34:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 81kts (93.2mph)
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Recon Discussion

#3644 Postby craptacular » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:50 am

Latest recon mission is over. Next low-level mission scheduled for first center fix at 7:30 am EDT. Starting with that flight, recon is scheduled to ramp up even more and should have fixes no more than three hours apart.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3645 Postby Ian2401 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:50 am

Compare the satellite presentation to just a few hours ago and this thing looks MUCH better. Off the bed for now, but curious to see how it looks in the AM
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3646 Postby meriland29 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:53 am

So the eye is still open? Winds look lower unless i read the data wrong above...then again, likely takes a while to respond to a pressure drop and cloud cooling.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3647 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:54 am

This is about to do a cyclonic loop. a whole of vorticity on the west side. large eye might be trying to clear out if the convection keeps going.. looking much better.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3648 Postby sbcc » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:58 am

2 AM NHC track

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3649 Postby HDGator » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:59 am

Aric Dunn wrote:This is about to do a cyclonic loop. a whole of vorticity on the west side. large eye might be trying to clear out if the convection keeps going.. looking much better.

The eye is just about into radar range from Wilmington. We'll see soon where Flo really wants to go.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3650 Postby Chris90 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:59 am

meriland29 wrote:So the eye is still open? Winds look lower unless i read the data wrong above...then again, likely takes a while to respond to a pressure drop and cloud cooling.


Yep, the eye is still open. Winds have been lower for a few hours now, but I think a large part of that is due to the eyewall cycles that have broadened the pressure gradient. Pressure may continue to drop somewhat without seeing a huge response in winds. The new eyewall looks very large, it's going to need to do quite a bit of contracting to tighten that pressure gradient up to get those winds increased significantly.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3651 Postby Blinhart » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:01 am

Rail Dawg wrote:
sponger wrote:
Flooding could be apocalyptic. If you stay, get to high ground.


Good advice.

Currently on the 6th floor of a reinforced-concrete parking garage.

Place was almost empty last night but is now jammed with cars.

Always best to make decisions early to avoid the crowds.


Hope there is a boat or two in there for you to hop in just in case.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3652 Postby meriland29 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:03 am

So out of curiosity, anyone else staying up extra late tonight watching this ?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3653 Postby HDGator » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:07 am

meriland29 wrote:So out of curiosity, anyone else staying up extra late tonight watching this ?

Going to hit the bed soon. I'm thinking the real show will be tomorrow with the slow-down and turn. But Flo is keeping up the drama tonight.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3654 Postby Rail Dawg » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:08 am

meriland29 wrote:So out of curiosity, anyone else staying up extra late tonight watching this ?



Yep. 2am here in Wilmington and Storm2k is the go-to place for updates.

Tropical Tidbits a very close second.
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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3655 Postby HDGator » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:10 am

Rail Dawg wrote:
meriland29 wrote:So out of curiosity, anyone else staying up extra late tonight watching this ?



Yep. 2am here in Wilmington and Storm2k is the go-to place for updates.

Tropical Tidbits a very close second.

Hang in there Rail Dawg. You've got a show coming one way or the other. Stay safe. Goodnight!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3656 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:11 am

Rail Dawg wrote:
meriland29 wrote:So out of curiosity, anyone else staying up extra late tonight watching this ?



Yep. 2am here in Wilmington and Storm2k is the go-to place for updates.

Tropical Tidbits a very close second.


where are you at Rail Dawg? we are at the Ballast hotel currently wandering around.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3657 Postby Blinhart » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:12 am

I was going through the past several pages of comments since I decided to take a break for a couple hours and was looking at some of the graphics and it looked like she was going more West. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3658 Postby meriland29 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:17 am

Does anyone notice she went NW nad then as soon as her eye hit 74w she went straight up W?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3659 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:20 am

meriland29 wrote:Does anyone notice she went NW nad then as soon as her eye hit 74w she went straight up W?


It's a cyclonic loop happening. a lot of rotational energy is being transferred with the recent convection.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3660 Postby meriland29 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:20 am

Also, looks like something is happening to her left... dry air?
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