ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:09 pm

AL, 95, 2018090918, , BEST, 0, 181N, 855W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS026, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026,
AL, 95, 2018091000, , BEST, 0, 178N, 852W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS026, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026,
AL, 95, 2018091006, , BEST, 0, 176N, 850W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS026, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026,
AL, 95, 2018091012, , BEST, 0, 185N, 860W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026, SPAWNINVEST, al792018 to al952018,


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119896
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#2 Postby plasticup » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:11 pm

This is the one just east of the Yucatan, moving towards to GOM. Lots of warm water in the gulf at the moment but it will have to contend with a good bit of shear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion- NW Caribbean area

#3 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:11 pm

Like we need another storm to watch for a possible threat....Certainly feels like September 10th...
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#4 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:13 pm

plasticup wrote:This is the one just east of the Yucatan, moving towards to GOM. Lots of warm water in the gulf at the moment but it will have to contend with a good bit of shear.



This one's being discussed in the Talkin' Tropics forum. No GFS support, just a South Texas rain event, and the Euro saying a depression, possible Tropical Storm. I guess the posts will be transferred.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion- NW Caribbean area

#5 Postby tailgater » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:16 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Like we need another storm to watch for a possible threat....Certainly feels like September 10th...


My birthday, probably why I got interested in these storms. That and Betsy!
Looking at the latest Ghcc sat loop seems like a good bit of rotation just north of the Roatan
Last edited by tailgater on Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion- NW Caribbean area

#6 Postby bohaiboy » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:23 pm

Regardless of its classification, it can dump copious amounts of rain in the Houston and S/SE TX area. Allison was just a depression when she drifted back southward over Houston and dumped 36" of rain in a short period. We are supposed to get several inches this week early on top of some areas had 3-4" this past weekend, so ground is saturated.
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TW just north of Houston :flag:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion- NW Caribbean area

#7 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:23 pm

Thank you Luis, now we don't have to jump between forums.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion- NW Caribbean area

#8 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:28 pm

bohaiboy wrote:Regardless of its classification, it can dump copious amounts of rain in the Houston and S/SE TX area. Allison was just a depression when she drifted back southward over Houston and dumped 36" of rain in a short period. We are supposed to get several inches this week early on top of some areas had 3-4" this past weekend, so ground is saturated.


The Euro (the only one to develop it) shows 6-7" of rain in Houston.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion- NW Caribbean area

#9 Postby Cypresso » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:31 pm

bohaiboy wrote:Regardless of its classification, it can dump copious amounts of rain in the Houston and S/SE TX area. Allison was just a depression when she drifted back southward over Houston and dumped 36" of rain in a short period. We are supposed to get several inches this week early on top of some areas had 3-4" this past weekend, so ground is saturated.


I agree rain is going to be a concern. Houston is fixing to get pounded again today. So when Invest 95L reaches this area, or the rain effects of such, the ground will certainly be saturated and set up for a flooding event. Hopefully I am wrong.
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Southside Place, Texas (within Houston). Ike and Harvey survivor. :)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion- NW Caribbean area

#10 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:34 pm

I now see a broad surface circulation developing east of Belize with convection to the NE of it, getting better organized slowly.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion- NW Caribbean area

#11 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:35 pm

this invest?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion- NW Caribbean area

#12 Postby wxGuy » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:36 pm

Cypresso wrote:
bohaiboy wrote:Regardless of its classification, it can dump copious amounts of rain in the Houston and S/SE TX area. Allison was just a depression when she drifted back southward over Houston and dumped 36" of rain in a short period. We are supposed to get several inches this week early on top of some areas had 3-4" this past weekend, so ground is saturated.


I agree rain is going to be a concern. Houston is fixing to get pounded again today. So when Invest 95L reaches this area, or the rain effects of such, the ground will certainly be saturated and set up for a flooding event. Hopefully I am wrong.


It's looking like its setting up for another big rain event sir
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion- NW Caribbean area

#13 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:37 pm

LL Vort coming together quickly

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion- NW Caribbean area

#14 Postby wxGuy » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:37 pm

Image

models starting to show 24" of rainfall off coast, this is 7.5 days out
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion- NW Caribbean area

#15 Postby wxGuy » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:39 pm

Huge bands of moisture are going to pound gulf coast, houston and setx according to the NAM 12z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:44 pm

GFS Rainfall Estimates for the Greater Houston Area

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#17 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:46 pm

SoupBone wrote:GFS Rainfall Estimates for the Greater Houston Area

https://s22.postimg.cc/4upxjux4h/wave.png


GFS doesn't develop it, the reason why is much lower than other models.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:48 pm

2 PM TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
western Cuba, associated with a surface trough, are showing some
signs of organization. This system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward near the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited
development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development on Wednesday when the system moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form
on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and
the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely over western Cuba through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#19 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:48 pm

NDG wrote:
SoupBone wrote:GFS Rainfall Estimates for the Greater Houston Area

https://s22.postimg.cc/4upxjux4h/wave.png


GFS doesn't develop it, the reason why is much lower than other models.


Euro (which does) doesn't send too much into the Houston area, though it sends quite a bit toward Victoria. I say with the caveat that Houston should be able to handle 8" of rain. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion: 2 PM TWO: 20%/50%

#20 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:11 pm

sure looks like a little vortex trying to spin up where the L is located... go the vis sat loops, set on medium, and at high speed.. 50 frame loop.. probably the first of many to spit out in the coming days...

Image

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html
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