ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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lrak
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#221 Postby lrak » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:13 pm

Been looking at this thing since early visible was available. Now I see some sort of LLC possibility just NE of the Mid Level swirl?

There looks like some low level inflow on the south of the convection that is starting?

If it is a depression forming wouldn't the IR satellite show a blow up of Red around that area tonight?

From NHC
1. An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigating the disturbance in
the western Gulf of Mexico found a broad and elongated area of low
pressure with a few squalls. Upper-level winds are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could still form before the
system moves inland along the western Gulf coast on Friday. Another
Air Force reconnaissance plane will investigate the system on
Friday if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and
Texas on Friday and Saturday. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.

And their "X" is just about the area I'm looking at :?:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#222 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:25 pm

Looked really good with a defined midlevel spin earlier but for the third night convection is collapsing rapidly. Definitely running out of time; it's got to actually persist with a circulation and convection to get bumped to a depression and now very little time to do so.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#223 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:31 pm

Convection is now even more pitiful, third night straight. Despite good vorticity even in the lower levels the chance of this developing are plummeting because it just can't sustain any convection overnight.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#224 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:33 pm

EquusStorm wrote:Convection is now even more pitiful, third night straight. Despite good vorticity even in the lower levels the chance of this developing are plummeting because it just can't sustain any convection overnight.


There's simply too little convergence--it's competing with the trough to the northwest and seems to be losing out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#225 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:35 pm

I wouldn't rule it out quite yet. Some mesoscale models show it trying to spin up into a tropical depression before moving onshore in south TX late tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#226 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:37 pm

wx98 wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Audrey2Katrina wrote:
Okay, you'll have this one (which I honestly think will never be strong enough for a name; A minimal storm in Gordon, and a once major in Florence... that "would be" three in the last 10 days... I'm not sure what the alleged fourth system is. Are you counting the US Virgin Islands and Isaac? really the only system of consequence (as systems go) among all of them is Florence. Last year was MUCH worse than this year-- and hopefully it stays that way!

A2K


I assumed the fourth was Olivia in Hawaii.


It was, last I checked Hawaii was a state and Olivia made 2 landfalls there.


Sarcasm gets you nowhere, so try not to look down your nose at others, it's unbecoming. But if you're going to count Olivia, well, perhaps you should consider Mangkhut, which hit Guam, which, last I heard was a territory of the United States., My original post was an honest query, but since you decided to go down the road of condescension--hey, I'm game. So is that 4 plus one more if Kirk develops? (which is highly unlikely) The bottom line is except for Florence these others are relatively minor tropical storms AT landfall (NOT counting Typhoon Mangkhut which you seem to have overlooked.)

https://www.scmp.com/video/world/216409 ... slams-guam
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#227 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:41 pm

wx98 wrote:There was Gordon, Olivia in Hawaii, Florence will be 3, and if this forms it will be 4. No one was talking about Isaac. Please try to remember Hawaii is also a state.


Are we beginning to stutter, or is there an echo in here?

A2K
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#228 Postby HurricaneBrain » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:00 pm

You’re being way too technical... let’s focus on 95L.

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
wx98 wrote:
Hammy wrote:
I assumed the fourth was Olivia in Hawaii.


It was, last I checked Hawaii was a state and Olivia made 2 landfalls there.


Sarcasm gets you nowhere, so try not to look down your nose at others, it's unbecoming. But if you're going to count Olivia, well, perhaps you should consider Mangkhut, which hit Guam, which, last I heard was a territory of the United States., My original post was an honest query, but since you decided to go down the road of condescension--hey, I'm game. So is that 4 plus one more if Kirk develops? (which is highly unlikely) The bottom line is except for Florence these others are relatively minor tropical storms AT landfall (NOT counting Typhoon Mangkhut which you seem to have overlooked.)

https://www.scmp.com/video/world/216409 ... slams-guam
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#229 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:17 pm

Ahhhhhh the joys of the forums at peak season..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#230 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:31 pm

HurricaneBrain wrote:You’re being way too technical... let’s focus on 95L.


Agreed. I was replying to a post that was making a big deal about four tropical systems/cyclones/whatever hitting the US "somewhere" all in the last 10 days--as if it were some apocalyptic scenario. I was only trying to get clarification and context. I'm sure you can see, (by my stats and ID) that I've been around awhile, and snobbery doesn't sit well with me. That said, I agree. I had been interested in what became 95L since it was a clump of showers in the extreme SW Caribbean. And THAT said, I don't see it ever becoming "Kirk", and I can't say I'm sorry about it either. My best guess looking at the current data is it goes in right at the Texas/Mexico border, and some of its rains will provide those parched Texas areas some badly needed rainfall.

Thanks for a return to civility.

A2K
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#231 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:12 am

I personally like to see impressive Invests like this develop into even weak brief TCs just for statistical and recordkeeping reasons because few are gonna remember even the rains from a basically undocumented ALMOST-tropical-cyclone 'Invest 95L' years from now but give it even a very brief closed circ and a couple hours of spin up to 39mph and Tropical Storm Kirk is documented everywhere and suddenly memorable. We humans have some pretty strict ways of classing and remembering stuff but the natural world doesn't work on my whims :ggreen:

On topic, if the center they're expecting to develop is around the persistent lower level swirl at 24N 96W, it's getting rather close to land in Mexico as a naked swirl so unless another circulation can develop and sustain convection in the face of the Texas low, am not too confident this has enough time
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#232 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:16 am

Convection is starting to develop near the area where what models do show development have it (near 25N, 95W). Looks like this disturbance is trying to make one final push for development. We'll see rather soon if it can do it. I think a 50% chance still seems reasonable.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#233 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:21 am

South Texas Storms wrote:Convection is starting to develop near the area where what models do show development have it (near 25N, 95W). Looks like this disturbance is trying to make one final push for development. We'll see rather soon if it can do it. I think a 50% chance still seems reasonable.



Perhaps so... but the NHC has downgraded its chances to a yellow "x" (less than 30% for the next five days) It's got a lot of odds against it at this point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#234 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:48 am

Anyone remember the last time we got to a red X without development? Certainly doesn't seem frequent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#235 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:13 am

Looks like it just ran out of time. Should be pushing onshore in the next 12 hours. Lots of rain expected across south TX through tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#236 Postby wx98 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:54 am

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
HurricaneBrain wrote:You’re being way too technical... let’s focus on 95L.


Agreed. I was replying to a post that was making a big deal about four tropical systems/cyclones/whatever hitting the US "somewhere" all in the last 10 days--as if it were some apocalyptic scenario. I was only trying to get clarification and context. I'm sure you can see, (by my stats and ID) that I've been around awhile, and snobbery doesn't sit well with me. That said, I agree. I had been interested in what became 95L since it was a clump of showers in the extreme SW Caribbean. And THAT said, I don't see it ever becoming "Kirk", and I can't say I'm sorry about it either. My best guess looking at the current data is it goes in right at the Texas/Mexico border, and some of its rains will provide those parched Texas areas some badly needed rainfall.

Thanks for a return to civility.

A2K


No one said anything about an apocalyptic scenario, don’t appreciate you putting words in my mouth. So if you do count Mangkut then I guess it still is 4. Luckily this didn’t develop or it would’ve been 5. Still gonna bring much rain to South Texas which they need, so that’s good. I’m not gonna comment further on this just to argue, because that’s not the purpose of these boards. We were both wrong on certain points so that’s okay...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#237 Postby lrak » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:42 am

SURF :flag: 8-) and rain couldn't of asked for more :flag:

I have relatives in NC....it's freakin bad bad bad :cry:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#238 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:43 am

South Texas Storms wrote:Looks like it just ran out of time. Should be pushing onshore in the next 12 hours. Lots of rain expected across south TX through tomorrow.


Agreed. It's the second time in two weeks that the potential was there with a "system" slowed and then going inland in the Western Gulf. Luckily so far this year, none of these have developed. It's clear that the overall pattern wasn't quite ripe enough, but it has certainly been juicy enough to get a lot of rain into parts of Coastal Texas. Looks like the entire southern half of the state is in a flood watch. Between the stalled boundary and this, there's gonna be rain.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

Also, late spin up but it's out of real estate.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... P&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#239 Postby lrak » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:49 am

Steve wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Looks like it just ran out of time. Should be pushing onshore in the next 12 hours. Lots of rain expected across south TX through tomorrow.


Agreed. It's the second time in two weeks that the potential was there with a "system" slowed and then going inland in the Western Gulf. Luckily so far this year, none of these have developed. It's clear that the overall pattern wasn't quite ripe enough, but it has certainly been juicy enough to get a lot of rain into parts of Coastal Texas. Looks like the entire southern half of the state is in a flood watch. Between the stalled boundary and this, there's gonna be rain.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

Also, late spin up but it's out of real estate.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... P&loop=yes


I was seeing that too Steve...it's got about 50 miles due the coastal bend...lol Also I love watching the shadows on the visible in the morning when convection is along the coast. 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#240 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:50 am

Getting better organized just before landfall, where have we've seen this before?

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1040583717666922497


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