ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#141 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:51 am

8 AM TWO:

1. Cloudiness and showers associated with a trough of low pressure over
the south-central Gulf of Mexico have decreased since yesterday
and the Air Force reconnaissance plane scheduled to investigate the
system for today will likely be cancelled. However, upper-level
winds are forecast to become a little more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could still form Thursday or
Friday before the system reaches the western Gulf Coast. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across
portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana late this
week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#142 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:36 am

Is this blowup around the center? it looks very small and compact... I wonder if the center will develop under the ball of convection this am... Hows the wind shear
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#143 Postby Portastorm » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:38 am

jaguars_22 wrote:Is this blowup around the center? it looks very small and compact... I wonder if the center will develop under the ball of convection this am... Hows the wind shear


I couldn't believe how pitiful 95L looked last night. But admittedly, it appears to be making a bit of a comeback this morning based on latest IR satellite loops.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#144 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:42 am

Oh it looked bad... this morning there's definitely a spin down there! It doesnt looked to have moved any since last night?? Water Vapor looks to be trying to fill in around center off north yucatan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#145 Postby Portastorm » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:46 am

jaguars_22 wrote:Oh it looked bad... this morning there's definitely a spin down there! It doesnt looked to have moved any since last night?? Water Vapor looks to be trying to fill in around center off north yucatan


Yeah if it is moving ... it's not much at all, like a crawl.

I agree with you about the latest WV loop and what appears to be a center of circulation. I have not looked enough to see if it's a mid level center or something trying to spin up at the surface. If the NHC is sticking with 70% chance I guess they see something we don't.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#146 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:48 am

Well they went down to 60%... But im seeing some banding forming on water vapor as well... INTERESTING... Shes not dead Jim
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#147 Postby EasyTiger » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:49 am

Definitely making an attempt to comeback. FWIW, the 06Z HWRF shows a 46mph landfall near Matagorda on Friday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#148 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:56 am

The spin may not be at the surface... I'm very shocked she didn't move any though...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#149 Postby Portastorm » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:57 am

As long as that upper level trough is along the Texas coast, it's going to shear the heck out of 95L's western edge. If that trough moves away or dissipates then I could see some possible development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#150 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:13 am

That upper low was supposed to be gone today?? both systems are hanging around... Us on the middle texas coast look to get some rain but i dont expect anything heavy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#151 Postby bbadon » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:47 am

It appears to me the LLC evident on the visible this morning is pulling closer to the convection to its east. Or have I been looking at the loop too long?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#152 Postby Nederlander » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:39 am

bbadon wrote:It appears to me the LLC evident on the visible this morning is pulling closer to the convection to its east. Or have I been looking at the loop too long?

Looks like the NNE to SSW shear is blowing the cloud tops that direction, producing an optical illusion, but I could be wrong...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#153 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:42 am

FWIW, our mets lowered the risk of this system for the Greater Houston Area, as far as winds are concerned to 1%. The threat of heavy rain is still there, but they also lowered that risk as well due to the system potentially taking a more southern path. At this point, the further south it goes, the better because those areas need the rain much more than the upper Texas coast does. Hopefully, this is a trend.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#154 Postby Portastorm » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:53 am

I wouldn't be surprised if we're back up to 70% at the next NHC tropical discussion. The system is definitely on the rebound. Interesting also to note that recent runs of the RGEM and HWRF show at least something of tropical storm strength hitting the coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#155 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:58 am

The GFS is not a fan of a heavy rain event. Not sure I agree with it.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#156 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:04 am

Portastorm wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if we're back up to 70% at the next NHC tropical discussion. The system is definitely on the rebound. Interesting also to note that recent runs of the RGEM and HWRF show at least something of tropical storm strength hitting the coast.


Most of the models have been on the flip flop with the developing versus wave solution. The only one that has stuck with nearly the same solution run after run has been the GFS with a sloppy mess hitting around Corpus Christi (south or north adjustments with some runs). We'll know in a day or so if it was right!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#157 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:31 pm

2 PM TWO: 70%/70%

1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure has formed in the central Gulf of Mexico.
Although the shower activity is still disorganized, upper-level
winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and
it is likely that a tropical depression will form on Thursday,
before the system reaches the western Gulf coast. Another
reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
tomorrow. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
Louisiana late this week, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#158 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:50 pm

Can we go for the quintuple? Very rare scenario if that happens.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#159 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:09 pm

SO is the center located under the small ball of convection?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#160 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:23 pm

FWIW, our mets adjusted the track to between Brownsville and just south of Corpus Christi. Still predicting heavy rain for the entire Texas coast.
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