ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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Hammy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#161 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:10 pm

Color me skeptical, but I don't see anything coming out of this--the trough to the northwest looks like it's preventing it from closing on that side.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#162 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:20 pm

I agree Hammy! There is some new convection popping near the "center"... I wonder if our local nws will put up a tropical storm watch just in case... Can someone post euro rainfall maps?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#163 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:25 pm

If this organizes quickly, we could be looking at history. In the HURDAT going back to 1851, there has never been five named storms at the same time. The last time there was five active systems (including depressions) in the Atlantic was 1995.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#164 Postby Frank P » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:31 pm

Well is sure looks a lot better than early this morning.. sure looks like a southern TX impact to me... would not be surprised for it to get to a low end TS... hopefully it will give a lot of rain to areas in need... shamelessly glad that Florence is not in the GOM... I've been thru my two 100 hundred years storm already... done with that foolishness...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#165 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:35 pm

Rainfall estimates have dropped considerably for some reason as well.

Euro

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Last edited by SoupBone on Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#166 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:35 pm

Frank do you think it will move up to middle coast... I'm hoping for some rain here in victoria
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#167 Postby ronyan » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:35 pm

RL3AO wrote:If this organizes quickly, we could be looking at history. In the HURDAT going back to 1851, there has never been five named storms at the same time. The last time there was five active systems (including depressions) in the Atlantic was 1995.


Yep everything is red on the NHC development map right now. Amazing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#168 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:38 pm

GFS rainfall estimates

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#169 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:38 pm

If i remember right didnt harvey look horrible one night and then the next it was completely 360. Im not saying this could be a harvey but it could go up to tropical storm strength quick
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#170 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:43 pm

NOAA 7 day Rain Forecast

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#171 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:45 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:If i remember right didnt harvey look horrible one night and then the next it was completely 360. Im not saying this could be a harvey but it could go up to tropical storm strength quick


Harvey had a lot more model support than this one does. I'm feeling 50-50 on this one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#172 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:46 pm

I can agree to that!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#173 Postby Frank P » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:56 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:Frank do you think it will move up to middle coast... I'm hoping for some rain here in victoria


I would think that is certainly possible... should be a decent rain maker for TX.... probably most of the weather will be on the east side of the system... I would think that the middle coast certainly should see some of that rainfall... Hope ya get it too Jaguars 22 !
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#174 Postby shiny-pebble » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:11 pm

Although not too likely, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a Humberto '07 or probably more likely, an Emily '17 out of this. A storm that quickly forms or intensifies near landfall.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#175 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:13 pm

Its probably going to die out again tonight? Wouldnt you think?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#176 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:31 pm

I honestly can't tell where the center is located. Anyone? Bueller?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#177 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:37 pm

SoupBone I thought it was still down north of the yucatan. but tropical tidbits is showing it closer to mexico/ texas border directly under the convection ball...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#178 Postby EasyTiger » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:37 pm

I honestly can't tell where the center is located. Anyone? Bueller?


23.7°N 91.7°W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#179 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:57 pm

What does the wind shear look like... Jon Metz just said via conference that the wind shear is high and prevent any development of this system... beyond TD status?? Wind Shear map?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#180 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:12 pm

Th center doesn't look like it's anywhere near where the NHC has it. It may be near that new blow-up of convection further
to the east of where the NHC has it. IMO

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif


EasyTiger wrote:
I honestly can't tell where the center is located. Anyone? Bueller?


23.7°N 91.7°W
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