ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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Blinhart
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#181 Postby Blinhart » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:15 pm

Could future Kirk be another lopsided system like Gordon?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#182 Postby Portastorm » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:18 pm

Wednesday afternoon briefing from Jeff re: 95L:

95L:

Satellite images suggest that a broad area of surface low pressure has formed today over the south-central Gulf of Mexico and thunderstorms activity has increased somewhat although it remains fairly disorganized. Based on the current data there is a 70% chance that a tropical depression will form in the next 24 hours over the western Gulf of Mexico. This feature is generally moving toward the NW at around 10mph and will be approaching the lower or middle TX coast on Friday. Conditions across the NW Gulf of Mexico will gradually become more favorable for the development of a tropical depression or storm over the next 24-36 hours and it is possible if not likely that the broad surface low will consolidate as it nears the coast on Friday.

Regardless of this system being declared a tropical storm or depression, the impacts along the TX coast will be nearly the same….heavy rainfall and potential flooding.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued from midnight tonight to 700pm Thursday for all the coastal counties and SE Harris County where rainfall over the last 2-3 days has averaged 3-6 inches with isolated totals of up to 10 inches. Grounds over these areas are saturated and additional rainfall is expected to develop again overnight and impact many of these same areas.

Rainbands from 95L will begin to spread onto the TX coast late Thursday and increase into Thursday night and Friday and continue into Saturday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be common mainly south of I-10 tonight-Saturday night with isolated totals of 6-8 inches. North of I-10 rainfall amounts will likely average 1-3 inches with isolated totals of up to 4 inches. There is still some uncertainty with these rainfall numbers and they could change up or down in the next 24-48 hours.

The greatest threat for flooding will be over the areas that have experienced the most rainfall over the last several days or generally across the coastal counties and into SE Harris County and then further inland over the coastal bend and SW TX where rainfall has been plentiful and rivers already running high.

Will maintain winds of 10-20mph inland and 15-25mph along the coast an offshore unless the system becomes stronger than currently expected.

Tides will run about 1.0-1.5 feet above predicted levels along the coast with total water levels of 3.0-3.5 feet above MLLW which is generally below thresholds needed to cause issues along Bolivar, the west end of Galveston and along the west side of Galveston Bay.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#183 Postby HurricaneBelle » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:47 pm

If this ends up Kirk, wxman57 is going to have to update his meme to "You're dead, Jim" when it dissipates.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#184 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:41 pm

8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure is located over the central Gulf of
Mexico. Although the shower activity is still disorganized,
upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for
development, and it is likely that a tropical depression will form
Thursday or Thursday night, before the system reaches the western
Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow, if necessary.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
Louisiana late this week. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#185 Postby EasyTiger » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:07 pm

The convection doesn't look all that great right now, but the circulation is definitely improving.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#186 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:54 pm

EasyTiger wrote:The convection doesn't look all that great right now, but the circulation is definitely improving.


Maybe it rolls tomorrow or tomorrow night. NHc assumes a depression will form, but obviously it’s got to happen for them to be right. More concentrated rains in the NW Gulf on the NAM but that's prerunner stuff and only out to 13 hours. NAM hasn’t been aggressive and mostly has only shown 1 closed insobar.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#187 Postby wxman22 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:19 am

95L is looking better organized this morning lets see if the trend continues through the day, the reconnaissance flight scheduled for today hasn't been cancelled yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#188 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:19 am

The disturbance is trying to develop, with plenty of convection firing this morning. It's running out of time though, with landfall expected tomorrow. NHC lowered the chance of development to 50%.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#189 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:20 am

SO lanfall is going to be well south of my area in Victoria? Looks like mexico...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#190 Postby EasyTiger » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:33 am

SO lanfall is going to be well south of my area in Victoria? Looks like mexico...


Really depends on how much the system strengthens. Looking at the current steering map, if it remains weak, south Texas is likely. If it were to somehow get a little stronger than middle Texas coast isn't out of the question.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#191 Postby EasyTiger » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:40 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#192 Postby Steve » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:45 am

jaguars_22 wrote:SO lanfall is going to be well south of my area in Victoria? Looks like mexico...


Looks like it may run out of Gulf real estate, but if it was going to develop or deepen, it would be today. I could see a non TD spinning up as it's hitting the coast tomorrow sometime. But in any event, the weather looks to be all on the north side. You can already see some banding up along the coast of Louisiana where the boundary meets the circulation, so your chances of rain in Victoria should be pretty good over the next 36-48 hours.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

S MS Valley Composite Radar

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/s ... y_loop.php
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#193 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:48 am

i just dont understand why we are only supposed to get 1-2 inches
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#194 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:50 am

jaguars_22 wrote:i just dont understand why we are only supposed to get 1-2 inches


Not sure where you're seeing that. The latest WPC rainfal forecast looks quite reasonable. It shows 2-4 inches for much of south TX.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1536846563
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#195 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:54 am

LOL thats just going with what the conference said yesterday... Looks like on the sattelite the center could form under the north east part of convection??
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#196 Postby craptacular » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:20 am

Recon for this system just took off from Keesler.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#197 Postby jasons » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:42 am

95L, while small, certainly looks more organized today. The low cloud movement indicates a closed low has formed. Also, you can see the cirrus is fanning out in all directions from the convection, indicating that shear had finally dropped. I think it still has a good chance of being declared a depression or a TS. It sure is pretty far south though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#198 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:45 am

jasons wrote:95L, while small, certainly looks more organized today. The low cloud movement indicates a closed low has formed. Also, you can see the cirrus is fanning out in all directions from the convection, indicating that shear had finally dropped. I think it still has a good chance of being declared a depression or a TS. It sure is pretty far south though.


It's heading to an area that badly needs rain too, that far south. Hopefully, the rain can help pull them out of the drought conditions, slowly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#199 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:59 am

I'm guessing landfall will be mexico... Where do you have the center located? Jason?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#200 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:08 pm

For the sake of science and stats, I'm pulling for Kirk, but it's really the last thing the United States needs. If this forms and hits the Gulf Coast it would be the 4th system in 10 days to landfall in the U.S. somewhere. :eek:
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