ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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HouTXmetro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#201 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:11 pm

Looks like this thing is really trying to get get going. I'm noticing a broad circulation and intensifying rain in what appears to be the center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#202 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:11 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#203 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:16 pm

wx98 wrote:For the sake of science and stats, I'm pulling for Kirk, but it's really the last thing the United States needs. If this forms and hits the Gulf Coast it would be the 4th system in 10 days to landfall in the U.S. somewhere. :eek:


Actually, if it continues on its current track and remains weak, it would bring beneficial rain to the areas where it's heading. Hopefully, it remains weak, and slowly provides that area with relief.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#204 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:20 pm

SoupBone wrote:
wx98 wrote:For the sake of science and stats, I'm pulling for Kirk, but it's really the last thing the United States needs. If this forms and hits the Gulf Coast it would be the 4th system in 10 days to landfall in the U.S. somewhere. :eek:


Actually, if it continues on its current track and remains weak, it would bring beneficial rain to the areas where it's heading. Hopefully, it remains weak, and slowly provides that area with relief.


Very true. Like you say, as long as it remains weak and heads for Mexico or South Texas. Hopefully it doesn't track more into LA/MS coastal areas, but it doesn't seem on track to do that. But the U.S. definitely doesn't need another area of wind and surge damage to deal with.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#205 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:23 pm

Its moving fast it looks like... It just doesnt have time to develop! They may change it to depression right before landfall just to do it :) Most of the convection is south of center?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#206 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:26 pm

2 PM TWO:

1. A weak low pressure center has formed a couple of hundred miles
east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas. In addition, showers and
thunderstorms in association with this system have become more
numerous today. While upper-level winds are generally conducive for
development of a tropical depression, the system only has about a
day before it reaches the western Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the
low. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and Texas on Friday
and Saturday. Interests there should monitor the progress of this
system, and refer to products from their local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#207 Postby artist » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:2 PM TWO:

1. A weak low pressure center has formed a couple of hundred miles
east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas. In addition, showers and
thunderstorms in association with this system have become more
numerous today. While upper-level winds are generally conducive for
development of a tropical depression, the system only has about a
day before it reaches the western Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the
low. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and Texas on Friday
and Saturday. Interests there should monitor the progress of this
system, and refer to products from their local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.


There is a plane on its way to investigate 95l
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#208 Postby jasons » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:13 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:I'm guessing landfall will be mexico... Where do you have the center located? Jason?


It's hard to tell, as it's obscured so much by the clouds and cirrus shield. Let's wait 'till recon tells us - it won't be long now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#209 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:30 pm

This thing is expanding in size and looks like its slowing down. I think the center is further south
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#210 Postby panamatropicwatch » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:31 pm

HH reported 1010mb and did find a wind shift.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#211 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:36 pm

Just a broad, weak area of low pressure. No inflow, not too much chance of it developing into a TS before it moves into south TX tomorrow morning. Just a rainfall event for Texas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#212 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:Just a broad, weak area of low pressure. No inflow, not too much chance of it developing into a TS before it moves into south TX tomorrow morning. Just a rainfall event for Texas.


Don't think this lets you off the hook for your comments in the Winter thread. It's coming!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#213 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:51 pm

wx98 wrote:For the sake of science and stats, I'm pulling for Kirk, but it's really the last thing the United States needs. If this forms and hits the Gulf Coast it would be the 4th system in 10 days to landfall in the U.S. somewhere. :eek:


Okay, you'll have this one (which I honestly think will never be strong enough for a name; A minimal storm in Gordon, and a once major in Florence... that "would be" three in the last 10 days... I'm not sure what the alleged fourth system is. Are you counting the US Virgin Islands and Isaac? really the only system of consequence (as systems go) among all of them is Florence. Last year was MUCH worse than this year-- and hopefully it stays that way!

A2K
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#214 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:14 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
wx98 wrote:For the sake of science and stats, I'm pulling for Kirk, but it's really the last thing the United States needs. If this forms and hits the Gulf Coast it would be the 4th system in 10 days to landfall in the U.S. somewhere. :eek:


Okay, you'll have this one (which I honestly think will never be strong enough for a name; A minimal storm in Gordon, and a once major in Florence... that "would be" three in the last 10 days... I'm not sure what the alleged fourth system is. Are you counting the US Virgin Islands and Isaac? really the only system of consequence (as systems go) among all of them is Florence. Last year was MUCH worse than this year-- and hopefully it stays that way!

A2K

Any storm that makes landfall in the united states counts as a landfall. End of story
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#215 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:18 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Audrey2Katrina wrote:
wx98 wrote:For the sake of science and stats, I'm pulling for Kirk, but it's really the last thing the United States needs. If this forms and hits the Gulf Coast it would be the 4th system in 10 days to landfall in the U.S. somewhere. :eek:


Okay, you'll have this one (which I honestly think will never be strong enough for a name; A minimal storm in Gordon, and a once major in Florence... that "would be" three in the last 10 days... I'm not sure what the alleged fourth system is. Are you counting the US Virgin Islands and Isaac? really the only system of consequence (as systems go) among all of them is Florence. Last year was MUCH worse than this year-- and hopefully it stays that way!

A2K

Any storm that makes landfall in the united states counts as a landfall. End of story


Kirk isn't even "born" yet... and the US Virgin Islands were OUTSIDE the WATCH area for Isaac.... that leaves two... End of Story!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#216 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:34 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
wx98 wrote:For the sake of science and stats, I'm pulling for Kirk, but it's really the last thing the United States needs. If this forms and hits the Gulf Coast it would be the 4th system in 10 days to landfall in the U.S. somewhere. :eek:


Okay, you'll have this one (which I honestly think will never be strong enough for a name; A minimal storm in Gordon, and a once major in Florence... that "would be" three in the last 10 days... I'm not sure what the alleged fourth system is. Are you counting the US Virgin Islands and Isaac? really the only system of consequence (as systems go) among all of them is Florence. Last year was MUCH worse than this year-- and hopefully it stays that way!

A2K


I assumed the fourth was Olivia in Hawaii.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#217 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:44 pm

Hammy wrote:
Audrey2Katrina wrote:
wx98 wrote:For the sake of science and stats, I'm pulling for Kirk, but it's really the last thing the United States needs. If this forms and hits the Gulf Coast it would be the 4th system in 10 days to landfall in the U.S. somewhere. :eek:


Okay, you'll have this one (which I honestly think will never be strong enough for a name; A minimal storm in Gordon, and a once major in Florence... that "would be" three in the last 10 days... I'm not sure what the alleged fourth system is. Are you counting the US Virgin Islands and Isaac? really the only system of consequence (as systems go) among all of them is Florence. Last year was MUCH worse than this year-- and hopefully it stays that way!

A2K


I assumed the fourth was Olivia in Hawaii.


It was, last I checked Hawaii was a state and Olivia made 2 landfalls there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#218 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:46 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Audrey2Katrina wrote:
Okay, you'll have this one (which I honestly think will never be strong enough for a name; A minimal storm in Gordon, and a once major in Florence... that "would be" three in the last 10 days... I'm not sure what the alleged fourth system is. Are you counting the US Virgin Islands and Isaac? really the only system of consequence (as systems go) among all of them is Florence. Last year was MUCH worse than this year-- and hopefully it stays that way!

A2K

Any storm that makes landfall in the united states counts as a landfall. End of story


Kirk isn't even "born" yet... and the US Virgin Islands were OUTSIDE the WATCH area for Isaac.... that leaves two... End of Story!


There was Gordon, Olivia in Hawaii, Florence will be 3, and if this forms it will be 4. No one was talking about Isaac. Please try to remember Hawaii is also a state.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#219 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:39 pm

Chances aren't looking higher than about 20% for me that this forms--it looked barely closed to the NW earlier but isn't now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#220 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:53 pm

Hammy wrote:Chances aren't looking higher than about 20% for me that this forms--it looked barely closed to the NW earlier but isn't now.


Agreed, looking pretty disorganized atm
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