ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

All past storm threads will be archived here by year.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
jaguars_22
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 168
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#241 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:09 am

Looks like galveston area may get alot of rain... more than the central coast with that band setting up... i dont think upper texas coast was supposed to get this big band??
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5960
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: NOT a State-caster

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#242 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:20 am

jaguars_22 wrote:Looks like galveston area may get alot of rain... more than the central coast with that band setting up... i dont think upper texas coast was supposed to get this big band??


It was on the simulated radar depictions from NAM and RGEM the last few days. The wrap around Northern side had the bulk of the rain training in. Hopefully it only brings a nice 1-3" soaking to most areas.
1 likes   

jaguars_22
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 168
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#243 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:32 am

The RGEM shows the center forming closer to mid texas coast and moving pretty close to my area Victoria...
0 likes   

User avatar
mcheer23
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 337
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:24 pm
Location: Missouri City, Texas ✈ Mobile, Alabama

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#244 Postby mcheer23 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:13 am

Flash Flood event going on in Galveston.
1 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5960
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: NOT a State-caster

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#245 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:26 am

mcheer23 wrote:Flash Flood event going on in Galveston.


Damn. They were right in the training band depiction from a couple of the runs yesterday.

Houston looks to get wet today too.
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/
0 likes   

WacoWx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 279
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:14 pm
Location: NOT Waco, TX ----> Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#246 Postby WacoWx » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:40 am

Can anyone give me a weather prediction for Austin at 7p on Saturday?
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5960
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: NOT a State-caster

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#247 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:50 am

WacoWx wrote:Can anyone give me a weather prediction for Austin at 7p on Saturday?


From the local NWS

Saturday

Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 87. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.


Saturday Night

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
0 likes   

User avatar
panamatropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2296
Age: 54
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#248 Postby panamatropicwatch » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:21 am

This is kind of interesting, issued this morning.

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 14.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 25.9N 96.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2018 0 25.9N 96.7W 1008 19
0000UTC 15.09.2018 12 27.2N 97.7W 1007 21
1200UTC 15.09.2018 24 28.1N 98.7W 1008 20
0000UTC 16.09.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING
1 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017'

User avatar
southerngale
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 27382
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#249 Postby southerngale » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:32 pm

It's raining now. Rain every day. We do not need any more. This part of Texas has definitely not been in a drought. Please send the rain to the people who need it.
3 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros

longhorn2004
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 4
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:49 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#250 Postby longhorn2004 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:29 pm

We have been in a drought for the first half of the year here in Central Texas, we'll take the rain.
1 likes   

lukem
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2010 2:53 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#251 Postby lukem » Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:02 pm

WacoWx wrote:Can anyone give me a weather prediction for Austin at 7p on Saturday?

I’ve been following the NAM closely each run for kickoff tomorrow. It shows most of the rain tonight and Saturday morning with maybe some isolated storms around midnight tomorrow night. Hope it’s right because I will be in the stadium regardless! Hook’em!
0 likes   

jaguars_22
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 168
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#252 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:08 pm

It almost looks like a circulation is still out in the gulf east of Brownsville moving northwest? Or am I just crazy
0 likes   

Craters
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 54
Joined: Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:34 pm
Location: Alvin, TX (south of Houston)

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#253 Postby Craters » Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:17 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:It almost looks like a circulation is still out in the gulf east of Brownsville moving northwest? Or am I just crazy


Looks that way to me, too. Maybe elongated, with the part over water to the NE of Brownsville...
0 likes   
Nothing that I post here should ever be treated as a forecast or anything resembling one. Please check with your local NWS office or the NHC for forecasts, watches, and warnings.

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 529
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#254 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:26 pm

There is a CLEAR fairly large (though broad) low level spin onshore with this from both CRP and visible images. So very close to making a tropical depression, stopped only by land heh
0 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5960
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: NOT a State-caster

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#255 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:27 pm

To me it looks more like the circulation is coming together right at or just inland. Looks like some good outflow with maybe an anticyclone sort of building overtop. No doubt this would have been at least a TD with more time. Okay job by the mesoscales which were better than the globals, but that’s probably more of a resolution issue.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis
0 likes   

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 529
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#256 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:33 pm

I honestly think there's some sort of momentum in some of these rapidly developing systems that lets them forget they're onshore or on the coast moving onshore for a few hours, cuz it certainly looks like this is going on here
0 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3669
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#257 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:39 pm

EquusStorm wrote:There is a CLEAR fairly large (though broad) low level spin onshore with this from both CRP and visible images. So very close to making a tropical depression, stopped only by land heh


Third or fourth time in the western GoM this year too.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1403
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#258 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:56 pm

Hammy wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:There is a CLEAR fairly large (though broad) low level spin onshore with this from both CRP and visible images. So very close to making a tropical depression, stopped only by land heh


Third or fourth time in the western GoM this year too.


The friction from land tightens up the circulation as it is moving onland but by that time it has ran out of fuel. The same happened to Alberto 2018 and many more full blown tropical cyclones as they manage to fire their core convection as they're half way onshore.

Sometimes you'll get this occurring fast enough to get a quick depression or low end tropical storm.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5055
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#259 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:24 pm

southerngale wrote:It's raining now. Rain every day. We do not need any more. This part of Texas has definitely not been in a drought. Please send the rain to the people who need it.


Amen to that!
1 likes   

User avatar
lrak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1506
Age: 51
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:48 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#260 Postby lrak » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:33 pm

The TX coastal bend is somewhat unique with it's desert to it's south and the wet lands to it's north I remember Harvey really cranking when it came ashore. I really do think that the bend in the land does tighten a storm better than a storm that would hit elsewhere. All coastal states have some bends but something about the Texas one is Bigger and Better... :D Especially catching all the different directions of swell from the GOM too. The buoys are showing an East swell at 5 feet at 11 second intervals. Which mean CC TX can handle that, anything bigger you have to drive to S Padre. Going to sleep early....Surf finally on a Saturday!

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=babt2 I've seen depressions with the same pressures in the beginning.

this one has a low pressure and is south of Baffin with a westerly wind for a few hours https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=rsjt2

Also convection is starting to come back to life offshore compared to previous nights we may flood and I won't be able to get to the beach tomorrow :cry:
1 likes   
AKA karl

Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “Storm Archives”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests