ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

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wxGuy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#21 Postby wxGuy » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:48 am

Icon is pretty accurate within 4 days IMO
I see some RI before Landfall tbh
texas coast should be watching by now lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#22 Postby wxGuy » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:00 am

valid for sunday and look whos in the carib
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#23 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:08 am

to be honest, ICON isn't really good....that sucker flops back and forth.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#24 Postby caneman » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:09 am

stormlover2013 wrote:to be honest, ICON isn't really good....that sucker flops back and forth.


You're looking for a trend with models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#25 Postby wxGuy » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:14 am

stormlover2013 wrote:to be honest, ICON isn't really good....that sucker flops back and forth.

actually the ICON is very good in a particular range, this happens to be ones of those.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#26 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:15 am

yeah and the 00 run monday for ICON was almost a cat one and about 200 miles north of the 06 run......Icon isn't good but looks like around a corpus area but will have a better guess tomorrow. Depends where the center forms or even if we have one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#27 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:16 am

Icon has been bad this year, stats don't lie I will always stick with EURO, Ukmet, and GFS

Levi Cowan wasn't even running the ICON for about 2 weeks lol becasue it was so bad but he started it back up once florence came.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#28 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:29 am

caneman wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:to be honest, ICON isn't really good....that sucker flops back and forth.


You're looking for a trend with models



If you're looking for consistency, then you need to be looking at the euro. It's had the same or similar solutions for multiple days now. That's for both 95l and Isaac.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#29 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:28 am

00Z Euro puts 95L into Baffin Bay as a rain dumper.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#30 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:42 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#31 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:53 am

NAM still isn't doing much with it. It doesn't tighten up until about at the coast. This is valid 1:00pm on Friday. RGEM initializing and I'll get that up as soon as it posts.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#32 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:14 am

Steve wrote:NAM still isn't doing much with it. It doesn't tighten up until about at the coast. This is valid 1:00pm on Friday. RGEM initializing and I'll get that up as soon as it posts.



RGEM has a hard left hook right at hour 48. Looks like high pressure parked on Texas/LA line, keeping it from going north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#33 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:25 am

SoupBone wrote:
Steve wrote:NAM still isn't doing much with it. It doesn't tighten up until about at the coast. This is valid 1:00pm on Friday. RGEM initializing and I'll get that up as soon as it posts.



RGEM has a hard left hook right at hour 48. Looks like high pressure parked on Texas/LA line, keeping it from going north.


A bit stronger too on this run. It's got it at 1001mb in 48 hours (7am on Thursday) and getting stronger.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#34 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:50 am

12Z GFS does nothing with 95L, sends a messy mass of moisture into all of the Texas coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#35 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:20 am

12z UKMET:

EW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 26.5N 96.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2018 72 27.2N 97.0W 1007 25
0000UTC 15.09.2018 84 27.7N 99.0W 1006 17
1200UTC 15.09.2018 96 28.6N 100.4W 1007 18
0000UTC 16.09.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#36 Postby wxman22 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:01 pm

Fwiw the 12z FW3 GFS closes the system off right before landfall around Corpus Christi.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#37 Postby mcheer23 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:17 pm

wxman22 wrote:Fwiw the 12z FW3 GFS closes the system off right before landfall around Corpus Christi.


That would put the bulk of the rain over SE TX. Especially west of I-45
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#38 Postby wxGuy » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:22 pm

i think main concern is rainfall in a 4 day span with this one, if any intensification is going to happen its going to be before landfall as you can see the models have shown in the past runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#39 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:23 pm

mcheer23 wrote:
wxman22 wrote:Fwiw the 12z FW3 GFS closes the system off right before landfall around Corpus Christi.


That would put the bulk of the rain over SE TX. Especially west of I-45



FWIW, the GFS shows that area between Austin and extreme west Harris County in the line of the most rainfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#40 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:15 pm

Euro very close to mirroring 00Z, maybe a hair slower.

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