ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

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mcheer23
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#41 Postby mcheer23 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:19 pm

EURO a bit stronger and a little further north.

Can't wait for the ensembles.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#42 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:23 pm

yeah tad farther north, still have 1 more day to get a grasp
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#43 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:23 pm

mcheer23 wrote:EURO a bit stronger and a little further north.

Can't wait for the ensembles.


Is there a better (more zoomed in) version than the one from Tidbits? From that one, it doesn't appear more north, but it's not easy to see the exact location.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#44 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:34 pm

SoupBone wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:EURO a bit stronger and a little further north.

Can't wait for the ensembles.


Is there a better (more zoomed in) version than the one from Tidbits? From that one, it doesn't appear more north, but it's not easy to see the exact location.


Big difference between Baffin Bay in Kennedy County (King Ranchlands) and Port Aransas... :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#45 Postby wxman22 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:37 pm

Yep Euro shows a landfall around Aransas Pass now.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 2100z.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#46 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:40 pm

ensembles will shift north
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#47 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:41 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:EURO a bit stronger and a little further north.

Can't wait for the ensembles.


Is there a better (more zoomed in) version than the one from Tidbits? From that one, it doesn't appear more north, but it's not easy to see the exact location.


Big difference between Baffin Bay in Kennedy County (King Ranchlands) and Port Aransas... :wink:


Yeah I get that, but if the reference point is that one from Tidbits, it's not easy to see it make landfall as it jumps in 24 hour increments (for me). Not disputing that it did. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#48 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:00 pm

Euro's rainfall estimates modeling.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#49 Postby wxGuy » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:13 pm

S TX Strong TS or CAT 1, depending on other factors as why to why the track might move in the next few days, All Texas Coast Should be monitoring this storm imo


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#50 Postby mcheer23 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:28 pm

RGEM is further north. Near matagorda
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#51 Postby sphelps8681 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:59 pm

mcheer23 wrote:RGEM is further north. Near matagorda


How much rain do you think for SE Texas? Seems we will be on the wet side a little bit.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#52 Postby wxman22 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:29 pm

The ICON shifted a little north Around the San Antonio Bay/Matagorda Bay areas
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#53 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:41 pm

mcheer23 wrote:RGEM is further north. Near matagorda


Looks weaker than it has but that’s been a trend today with it. It still brings up some squalls into SE TX. Hopefully they won’t get too much training.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#54 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:21 pm

The 0z GFS appear to have the strongest vorticity around Corpus Christi and Port Aransas
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#55 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:38 am

If I'm seeing this correctly, and yes I am kind of half asleep, the recent Euro does nothing with our friend 95L as far as development goes. It looks like it brings him in between Corpus Christi and Baffin Bay, though the resolution I see it is not good so please correct me on landfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#56 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:40 am

Harvey traversed this same area and the initial NHC forecast was a Tropical Storm making landfall. We all know that intensity forecast was way off. THE GOM is boiling and if the upper level conditions become more favorable, this thing can explode. We've seen it before.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#57 Postby EasyTiger » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:31 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#58 Postby wxman22 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:24 am

12z RGEM develops 95L into a tropical storm before landfall fwiw

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#59 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:07 pm

The latest GFS continues to show a sloppy mess, but undeveloped into the Texas coast. Euro coming up!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#60 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:05 pm

RGEM consistent with the spin up and consistent with coming in a with a little higher pressure over time. Currently it has 95L making landfall around Corpus and spins/wobbles down to the RGV. Looks like a TD or minimal TS Kirk at 1009mb which isn’t very low.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91218&fh=6
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