ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Current storms and invests:

Moderators: hurricanetrack, S2k Moderators

Image
Visit the Storm2K Tropical System Page
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
caneman
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 674
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:44 am
Location: Clearwater Beach, Fl

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#681 Postby caneman » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:48 am

The NHC, EURO AND GFS see it dying out. We'll see what happens
0 likes   

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2096
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#682 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:58 am

Saying a storm will die out is a bit misleading because that does not mean it can't regenerate later.
1 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12296
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#683 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:01 am


Hope he will stay weak and do not move close to any land especially in the Greater Antilles. :)
1 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12296
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#684 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:03 am

YES! We have been fully spared from poor TS Isaac! Thanks to you Isaac polite little boy. I hope that Isaac stay at this status along it treks, but only Mother Nature knows why. Even rainfall values are extremely week only 45 millimeters in a area close in hig elevation close to our volcano la Soufriere , elsewhere 5 millimiters in some others areas. So good excellent news, no damages, schools are open, all is at green code! :D :)
2 likes   

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3051
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#685 Postby tailgater » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:14 am

convection continues to fire on or near the Coc if one still exist. Definetly needs to be watched. I expect him to lose its clothes again later today but regain convection tonight during d-max.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9384
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#686 Postby artist » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:17 am

msbee wrote:Tropical storm watch for St Maarten has been discontinued

Awesome news Barb!
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1268
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#687 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:50 am

caneman wrote:The NHC, EURO AND GFS see it dying out. We'll see what happens


What the NHC, my mets, etc. are waiting on is this area of shear that's been increasing in that small pocket. My mets are forecasting potential dissipation just SE of Jamaica on Sunday, so that day is critical for his survival or "poof". If you look at the GFS over the last 2-3 runs, that poof moment comes right SE of Jamaica.

Image
Last edited by SoupBone on Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1268
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#688 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:54 am

The dry air he was dealing with is all but gone.

Image
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6152
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#689 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:03 am

Yeah, convection indeed has flared back up with Isaac the past 6-12 hours. Conditions just may be improving indeed for Isaac to get its act together ad he moves further into the NW Caribbean the next few days.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2018 Meteorological Autumn Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1812
Age: 19
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: NY

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#690 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:11 am

Definitely bears watching...as in the past, we've had some bad experiences with weak storms that regenerated/strengthened in the Gulf. I don't think I need to name names, unfortunately.
1 likes   

The Enthusiast
FF/EMT, WX nerd


Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"We often ask ourselves is life really worth it, how quickly we forget that every life has a purpose." -Wage War

User avatar
StruThiO
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 231
Age: 18
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#691 Postby StruThiO » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:47 am

"Vertical shear has decreased near Isaac, with some outflow in the
western semicircle noted and consolidation of the convection.
Still, this area of the eastern Caribbean isn't known as the
graveyard for nothing
, and the system might just be too shallow and
disorganized to take advantage of the changing environment."

:lol:
1 likes   

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1938
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#692 Postby Frank P » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:51 am

Well it indeed might go poof, but for the time being it’s certainly got my attention until and if it does so!
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1268
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#693 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:17 am

StruThiO wrote:"Vertical shear has decreased near Isaac, with some outflow in the
western semicircle noted and consolidation of the convection.
Still, this area of the eastern Caribbean isn't known as the
graveyard for nothing
, and the system might just be too shallow and
disorganized to take advantage of the changing environment."

:lol:


It's why while nothing is written in stone, and doesn't happen until it happens, I always defer to the experts. Like I said, our mets said Sunday will be key in Isaac's life. He'll either rise to the occasion, or become another casualty of the Caribbean Graveyard. Tick tock :lol:

And he's still blowing up this morning and even fanning out his coverage. Trying to cover up in his blanket.
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 529
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#694 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:29 am

At this point with vigorous and maybe even lightly banded convection only further increasing, and shear relaxing enough to allow it, I have to wonder if the center would try reforming where convection is most intense since the old long lived one was looking rather bleh before it got covered up. Fascinating storm to watch.
0 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1268
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#695 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:35 am

Tropical Depression Isaac Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...BANDS OF RAIN FROM ISAAC CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 67.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1268
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#696 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:37 am

"Deep convection has been increasing near the center of Isaac, but
visible imagery indicates that the circulation has become
more elongated from northeast to southwest
. It is possible that
Isaac is in the process of losing a well-defined center
, but we will
know more about the wind structure in a few hours since the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area. The initial wind
speed is held at 30 kt.

Vertical shear has decreased near Isaac, with some outflow in the
western semicircle noted and consolidation of the convection.
Still, this area of the eastern Caribbean isn't known as the
graveyard for nothing, and the system might just be too shallow and
disorganized to take advantage of the changing environment. Almost
all of the dynamical models, save the UKMET, show the cyclone moving
westward to west-northwestward at a slower forward speed during the
next few days and degenerating into an open wave in the central
Caribbean Sea. This solution is also supported by fewer members of
the GFS and ECMWF ensemble now maintaining a coherent system in the
long range. Little change is made to the previous track and
intensity forecasts, and we will see what the aircraft finds this
afternoon and if the 1200 UTC model cycle maintains the dissipation
trend.
"

We'll have some good info from the recon flights today. Awesome!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 529
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#697 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:43 am

Would be a very strange fate, going from a convectionless tiny vigorous low level swirl for days to a large and very convectively organized open tropical wave, but weirder things happen lol
0 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 938
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#698 Postby Emmett_Brown » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:44 am

The GFS continues to depict the W Caribbean with generally low shear by Sunday when Isaac or his ghost reaches the area. The 200mb chart shows Isaac will be on the south side of Florences sprawling upper level anticyclone however. So there may be some sinking air for him to deal with that may put a damper on convection. If he can maintain some convection he might be able to carve out his own southern pocket of anticyclonic flow/outflow, perhaps aided by a retrograding upper level low over the GOM.

Also, the "graveyard" idea is that low level flow usually races through the area between Hispaniola and South America, creating relative shear... the W Caribbean has never been known to be part of this "graveyard". Many storms have thrived in that very same area, so take it with a grain of salt. It's all about the setup any given time. Regardless, he will already have traveled past that area by Sunday anyway.
1 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1268
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#699 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:15 am

FWIW, grain of salt, etc. The GFS kills him again for the 3rd run at about hour 72ish. His remnants (open wave) continue on to the Yucatan.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5495
Age: 30
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#700 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:24 am

Isaac is really cranking up- lots of convection, not sure if there is an LLC but there is some rotation with areas of strong storms southwest and northeast of center. (Credit goes to Grothar of Weather Underground for the images.)
https://photos.app.goo.gl/7n9iWkKAxKnGgkrx5
https://photos.app.goo.gl/oFwg4RivTedUZUAw6
2 likes   


Return to “Active Storms/Invests - Atlantic/EastPAC/CentralPAC”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 18 guests