ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#81 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:45 am

8 AM TWO:

A large area of disturbed weather over the extreme northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is a associated
with a surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. Although
this activity is showing signs of organization, there are no signs
of a surface circulation. Limited development is anticipated
today, but upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form on Thursday or Friday while the
disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Interests
across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and Louisiana
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over western
Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#82 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:57 am

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff regarding 95L:

Tropical cyclone formation remains possible for the NW Gulf of Mexico late this week.

Residents along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system and have hurricane plans and kits in place.

There has been little change in organization of the tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea overnight. Sporadic deep convection continues to develop in an near what is most likely a mid level low pressure system. Thus far there have not been any surface observations to support any surface low pressure formation. Upper level winds remain fairly strong out of the WSW/W as the system is on the eastern side of a weakening upper level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. As this upper trough weakens and the tropical wave axis moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico upper level winds will become somewhat more favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone.

The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC models either maintain an open tropical wave or attempt to close off a surface low pressure system along the wave axis in the Thursday and Friday period as the feature moves NW toward the TX coast. It is unclear at this point if the system will be able to close off a surface low, but development chances increase as it nears the TX coast late this week…so things can and will likely change quickly on Thursday and Friday.

Regardless of actual development of a closed low pressure system the main impacts appear to be heavy rainfall and potential flooding. Wet and soggy grounds are already in place over much of coastal TX and additional rainfall is likely both today and Wednesday. Deep tropical moisture with the tropical feature will begin to arrive on the TX coast late Friday with bands of heavy rainfall and gusty winds spreading along the TX coast Friday and into Saturday.

At the moment it is still too early to discuss specific impacts, but the threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding late this week into this weekend along the entire TX coast is increasing. For now will leave tides, winds, and seas alone and await better trends in any center track and intensity of the feature. Even an open wave axis will likely produce 20-30kts across the NW Gulf waters. This could be a system where much of the adverse conditions will occur to the north and east of any actual surface center.

Forecast confidence toward the end of the week and weekend is low and residents along the TX coast should closely monitor forecasts over the next few days for changes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#83 Postby Red eye » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:59 am

The invest looks to be well east of where it was anticipated as of yesterday. I don't know what affect it will have on track. My initial thought is up the texas coast a little further. Maybe it stays a little stronger with less land interaction. Yesterday it look liked the shear was screaming in the middle of the gulf. The storm will have to contend with that. I think.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#84 Postby jasons » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:20 am

It also looks like it's quite a bit further north too, IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#85 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:40 am

jasons wrote:It also looks like it's quite a bit further north too, IMO.



My paid guys put the center right here, NE of Merida.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#86 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:43 am

What is the likely hood of this pulling an Humberto and just explode and go due North?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#87 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:54 am

Blinhart wrote:What is the likely hood of this pulling an Humberto and just explode and go due North?


I haven't seen any model support for that. Seems more likely to be a tightening at landfall tropical storm on the mid or south TX coast. But if that changes, it will be reflected.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#88 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:59 am

From what i’ve read Florence’s track will play a part
as to where 95L goes but I’m not sure if that is still the case. Anyway I would not be surprised if this goes as far north and west as SW La.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#89 Postby ATCcane » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:03 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#90 Postby tailgater » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:40 am

SoupBone wrote:
jasons wrote:It also looks like it's quite a bit further north too, IMO.



My paid guys put the center right here, NE of Merida.

Image


I would put a very weak low on the west coast of the Yucatan about 20 miles south of Tulum Max.I don’t see anything up there, of course I don’t get paid either. Haha.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#91 Postby jaguars_22 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:41 am

My opinion of this storm is a landfall at San Antonio Bay as a cat 1 hurricane. This thing is pretty big too... Coverage will be all texas coast
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#92 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:19 pm

Even though I'm trusting that the models are right, with only the Euro really doing anything with this, I can't help but think back to last year. If shear were to die down sooner than forecast, we could be seeing a huge issue with this system. Thankfully, and currently, shear is still high and is only supposed to weaken as it's coming ashore. Still, post-Harvey stress makes you think. In other words, we're incredibly fortunate that conditions aren't more favorable.

This is Harvey from last year.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#93 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:34 pm

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane
Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm
Isaac, located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean
Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better
organized. Ship reports indicate that this system is producing
strong gusty winds over the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance
moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. If necessary, an Air Force
Reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue
over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#94 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:40 pm

Steve wrote:
Blinhart wrote:What is the likely hood of this pulling an Humberto and just explode and go due North?


I haven't seen any model support for that. Seems more likely to be a tightening at landfall tropical storm on the mid or south TX coast. But if that changes, it will be reflected.


If 95L were to track toward the southern-most Texas coastline (shorter distance) and deepen enough to become classified as a T.S., then we actually could be looking at a "Trifecta"! Depending on timing, we could see a T.S. in S. Texas, Isaac striking the Leewards, and Florence land-falling in the Carolina's all within the same 24 hour period?! THAT would be a historically epic first.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion: 2 PM TWO=50%/70%

#95 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:56 pm

FWIW, and grain of salt and all that, our paid guys are forecasting 2-6" of rain, with isolated higher amounts up to 8" from Corpus to San Antonio to Austin to Houston.
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ATL: INVEST 95L - Recon

#96 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:12 pm

SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 12/1800Z A. 13/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 12/1645Z C. 13/0945Z
D. 25.0N 91.0W D. 25.5N 92.5W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2230Z E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING G. RESOURCES PERMITTING
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#97 Postby bohaiboy » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:50 pm

I noticed on the Recon Group it states Resources Permitting. Assume Flo is taking most of those.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#98 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:55 pm

bohaiboy wrote:I noticed on the Recon Group it states Resources Permitting. Assume Flo is taking most of those.


Yeah, 95L is obviously super low priority.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#99 Postby jasons » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:04 pm

Update from Jeff Lindner at 12:49 CDT (a little over an hour ago):

Satellite and surface observations in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea is indicating that the tropical wave is becoming better organized and a tropical cyclone is likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday or Friday.

NHC has raised the chances for formation to 70% over the next 5 days.

Observations also indicate a large area of gusty winds…to near tropical storm force…across the Yucatan Channel extending into the SE Gulf of Mexico.

This system is moving toward the WNW/NW and this motion is expected to continue bringing the feature toward the TX coast Friday and Saturday. A USAF “hurricane hunter” aircraft is now planned to investigate the system tomorrow to determine if a tropical depression or storm has formed or is forming.

Residents along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system and have plans and kits ready to be enacted later this week as it is becoming increasingly likely that some sort of tropical system will be impacting the TX coast late this week and this weekend.

While it is still too early to be certain of any specific impacts…chances for rainfall…some heavy…will likely increase as the large mass of tropical moisture associated with this system moves toward the TX coast by late this week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#100 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:25 pm

Looks good for where it is in the process.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif
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