ATL: JOYCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Current storms and invests:

Moderators: hurricanetrack, S2k Moderators

Image
Visit the Storm2K Tropical System Page
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Buck
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 850
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#21 Postby Buck » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:41 pm

If the gulf system develops before any of the others dissipate, would that be the first time the Atlantic has seen 5 different systems receiving advisories at the same time?

Edit: I see that 1995 had five systems (including depressions). But if we have a 5th named storm join Joyce, this year will break a record.
0 likes   

HurricaneRyan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 572
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:05 pm

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#22 Postby HurricaneRyan » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:47 pm

I want to see a record broken then!
0 likes   
I'm wide awake

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2874
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#23 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:48 pm

Buck wrote:If the gulf system develops before any of the others dissipate, would that be the first time the Atlantic has seen 5 different systems receiving advisories at the same time?

I think it won't be the first time for 5 TCs(TD or greater) to exists at the same time, but if 95L becomes a TS and get the name it would be the first time to have 5 named storms simultaneously
0 likes   

User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3708
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: Eastern Dallas County, TX

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#24 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:54 pm

Since subtropical systems weren't named prior to 2007 you'd need an asterisk on that record unless Joyce completes the transition in time.
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be used as such. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

Click here to join us in Storm2k.org's official (and operational!) chatroom!

Rules for the Storm2k.org chatroom

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2874
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#25 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:56 pm

Saved images of 4 simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic. Perhaps soon to be 5

Image

Image

Image
3 likes   

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2874
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#26 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:01 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Since subtropical systems weren't named prior to 2007 you'd need an asterisk on that record unless Joyce completes the transition in time.

NHC expects the transition to be completed tommorow so it won't be an issue. Whether 95L develops, and how long can Isaac hold on, will be the key factors to set a new record.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 34.3N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 33.7N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 13/1800Z 33.0N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 32.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 32.5N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 34.0N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 37.0N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED
1 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3669
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#27 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:13 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Since subtropical systems weren't named prior to 2007 you'd need an asterisk on that record unless Joyce completes the transition in time.


None of the previous times included subtropical systems (operational or otherwise)
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16063
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#28 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:20 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Since subtropical systems weren't named prior to 2007 you'd need an asterisk on that record unless Joyce completes the transition in time.


If it's in HURDAT as a subtropical storm then it's included even if it didn't have a "name". All I did was check how many times four systems had a "TS", "SS", or "HU" designation at the same time.
3 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2447
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#29 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:15 pm

Given the extent of current spacing between all of the Atlantic systems I think Africa could reasonably pump out one more quick spin-up in the E. Atlantic. I mean, it's not like anyone would be robbing anyone else's inflow right? Long as everyone can manage to keep their outflow to themselves, I see no reason why 7 tropical cyclones can't get along and play nice :cheesy:
6 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 529
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#30 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:23 pm

Poor Joyce, almost immediately forgotten lol. Been a naked swirl the last 24 hours but finally firing stuff close to center... just as big sister Helene enters the frame to the SE
3 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1409
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#31 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:31 pm

She's a pretty little naked swirl. :P
1 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1347
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#32 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:39 pm

Surprise! It's tropical now!

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...JOYCE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 44.4W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
3 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 529
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#33 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:39 am

Bit of Atlantic eye candy today.

Image
5 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1403
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#34 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:24 pm

Image
5 likes   

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 529
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#35 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:18 pm

I had kinda written Joyce off yesterday but convection just keeps getting more impressive. Could be mid end TS before it starts to weaken.
0 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1347
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#36 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:13 pm

Joyce has really organized in the past few hours. Much less sheared with impressive banding.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3669
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#37 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:42 pm

I wonder if Joyce could make hurricane intensity given the small size and the fact that it's found a small favorable area.
4 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

HurricaneRyan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 572
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:05 pm

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#38 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:45 pm

Is Joyce still here or no?
0 likes   
I'm wide awake

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 529
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#39 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:21 pm

Little Joyce would have been pretty well talked about if not for Florence and Isaac, but now it's technically the only storm with active NHC advisories, until they decide to write it up as post-tropical. Which... might not be long now, the exposed LLC is looking weaker and weaker and might open up soon. Can't sustain convection anywhere close to the surface low thanks to strong shear.
1 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 529
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#40 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:17 pm

Oh man, I know nobody else really cares much about Joyce because weak swirl in absolute nowhere, but lemme just copy the intensity bit over from the 11pm advisory:

A contributing factor to the most recent convective development appears to be enhanced uplift caused by an approaching shortwave trough noted in water vapor imagery between 30W-35W longitude. The latter feature is forecast by most of the global models to cut off south of the Azores and become entangled with Joyce's circulation over the next few days, resulting in a sharp decrease in the vertical wind shear and an increase in atmospheric instability/CAPE by 48 h and beyond, which would aid convective development and re-strengthening. For now, however, the new intensity forecast continues the weakening trend of the previous advisories due to an abundance of very dry mid-level air being entrained into the circulation, which is expected to shut down convective development, causing Joyce to dissipate shortly after 72 h. However, confidence in this forecast scenario is not very high, and some adjustments may be required to subsequent forecasts once the 18/0000Z model guidance becomes available, especially since the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance maintains Joyce as a 30- to 35-kt tropical cyclone through the next 120 hours.


Surprise! How about tracking a weak swirl with intermittent convection sitting in the middle of nowhere for another week
4 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.


Return to “Active Storms/Invests - Atlantic/EastPAC/CentralPAC”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 17 guests