ATL: JOYCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: JOYCE - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:41 pm

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...JOYCE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 41.9W
ABOUT 870 MI...1395 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Subtropical
Storm Joyce was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 41.9
West. The storm is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h),
and this slow motion should continue during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Joyce is forecast to transform into a tropical storm by Thursday
and strengthen some.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Subtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

The strong low pressure system which the NHC has been monitoring in
the north Atlantic for a couple of days has developed a cyclonically
curved band of deep convection near the center, and scatterometer
data indicate that the winds are near 40 kt. Since the system is
still vertically stacked with an upper-low, it is then classified
as a subtropical cyclone at this time. However, the cyclone is
gaining organization while it is acquiring tropical characteristics.
The NHC forecast calls for Joyce to transform into a tropical system
in about 12 to 24 hours. Since the ocean is warm, some slight
strengthening is possible during the next 3 days. After that time,
Joyce will be over cooler waters and should then be absorbed by a
larger extratropical low.

Joyce has been moving southwestward or 225 degrees at 5 kt, steered
by the northerly flow around the subtropical high which has been
steering Florence and to west of the mid-latitude trough which
is forcing Helene to recurve. In a couple of days, global models
indicate that the steering pattern will change as the trough
amplifies, and Joyce should then turn toward the northeast with an
increase in forward speed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 34.3N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 33.7N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 13/1800Z 33.0N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 32.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 32.5N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 34.0N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 37.0N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#22 Postby Buck » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:41 pm

If the gulf system develops before any of the others dissipate, would that be the first time the Atlantic has seen 5 different systems receiving advisories at the same time?

Edit: I see that 1995 had five systems (including depressions). But if we have a 5th named storm join Joyce, this year will break a record.
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#23 Postby HurricaneRyan » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:47 pm

I want to see a record broken then!
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#24 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:48 pm

Buck wrote:If the gulf system develops before any of the others dissipate, would that be the first time the Atlantic has seen 5 different systems receiving advisories at the same time?

I think it won't be the first time for 5 TCs(TD or greater) to exists at the same time, but if 95L becomes a TS and get the name it would be the first time to have 5 named storms simultaneously
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#25 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:54 pm

Since subtropical systems weren't named prior to 2007 you'd need an asterisk on that record unless Joyce completes the transition in time.
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#26 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:56 pm

Saved images of 4 simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic. Perhaps soon to be 5

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#27 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:01 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Since subtropical systems weren't named prior to 2007 you'd need an asterisk on that record unless Joyce completes the transition in time.

NHC expects the transition to be completed tommorow so it won't be an issue. Whether 95L develops, and how long can Isaac hold on, will be the key factors to set a new record.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 34.3N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 33.7N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 13/1800Z 33.0N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 32.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 32.5N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 34.0N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 37.0N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#28 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:13 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Since subtropical systems weren't named prior to 2007 you'd need an asterisk on that record unless Joyce completes the transition in time.


None of the previous times included subtropical systems (operational or otherwise)
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#29 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:20 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Since subtropical systems weren't named prior to 2007 you'd need an asterisk on that record unless Joyce completes the transition in time.


If it's in HURDAT as a subtropical storm then it's included even if it didn't have a "name". All I did was check how many times four systems had a "TS", "SS", or "HU" designation at the same time.
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#30 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:15 pm

Given the extent of current spacing between all of the Atlantic systems I think Africa could reasonably pump out one more quick spin-up in the E. Atlantic. I mean, it's not like anyone would be robbing anyone else's inflow right? Long as everyone can manage to keep their outflow to themselves, I see no reason why 7 tropical cyclones can't get along and play nice :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:50 pm

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 42.6W
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



Subtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

Joyce still has subtropical characteristics. Although a small area
of convection has recent developed near the storm's center, cloud
tops are not particularly cold and the cyclone is still co-located
with an upper-level low. The initial intensity has been held at 40
kt based on a subtropical intensity estimate of 35-40 kt from
TAFB. This could be generous estimate since a recent near-miss of
the ASCAT instrument to the west of Joyce suggested that the winds
may have decreased somewhat since earlier today.

Little change has been made to the track or intensity forecast.
Just about all of the intensity guidance continues to indicate that
some gradual strengthening is possible during the next day or two
while Joyce continues to acquire tropical characteristics. By 72 h,
the global and statistical models depict Joyce weakening due to a
drastic increase in shear and a decrease in environmental humidity
until it is absorbed into a larger mid-latitude trough around 96 h.
The HWRF and HMON models show a very different solution where Joyce
strengthens to hurricane strength despite the marginal environment.
This scenario seems less likely at this time, so the NHC intensity
forecast is just below the intensity consensus beyond 36 h.

Joyce is caught in fairly light steering currents between strong
ridges to its east and west, and the initial motion estimate is
220/5 kt. All of the global models forecast only a slow
southwestward motion during the next couple of days, particularly
as Hurricane Helene approaches from the southeast. Once Helene
passes to the east, Joyce will likely quickly turn northeastward and
accelerate ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude trough before
dissipating southwest of the Azores. The official track forecast is
basically a blend of the previous advisory and the corrected
consensus aids HCCA and FSSE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 34.1N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 33.5N 43.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 32.9N 43.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
36H 14/1200Z 32.5N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 32.3N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 34.2N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 37.0N 33.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Advisories

#32 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:03 am

439
WTNT35 KNHC 130856
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...JOYCE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 43.1W
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 43.1 West. The storm is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow
southwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. A turn
toward the northeast with a rapid increase in forward motion is
forecast to occur over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of
days. Joyce could become a tropical storm within the next day or
so.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the
center, mainly to the northwest.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Advisories

#33 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:04 am

024
WTNT45 KNHC 130858
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Joyce is still co-located with an upper-level low, and the most
recent TAFB intensity classification was still a subtropical type.
Furthermore, there has been no discernible increase of convection
near the center of the cyclone, and cloud tops have actually warmed
over the past few hours. Therefore, Joyce is still classified as
subtropical for this advisory. Since the cyclone hasn't changed
much in organization, the initial intensity has been held at 40 kt
based on the TAFB subtropical intensity estimate, but this is still
possibly generous.

Joyce's struggle to maintain deep convection bodes poorly for its
intensification prospects, considering that the shear is forecast
by the global models to increase considerably over the next few
days. SHIPS, LGEM, and the global models continue to show Joyce
changing little in strength over the next few days until the
system dissipates by early next week. The HWRF and HMON models are
still outliers in showing substantial intensification, but even
these models aren't quite as aggressive in strengthening Joyce as
they were previously. The NHC forecast continues to favor the
statistical guidance and is just below the intensity consensus at
most forecast hours because it is frankly hard to believe that Joyce
will become a hurricane in 48 h based on its current appearance.

Joyce is still moving slowly southwestward with an initial motion
of 220/5 kt. The global models remain in fairly good agreement
that Joyce will move slowly southwestward for the next day or
so as the storm remains in light steering flow. A turn toward the
south will likely occur as Helene approaches from the southeast,
followed by a quick turn northeastward once the larger tropical
cyclone passes by. Joyce should then accelerate quickly
northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough before dissipating
southwest of the Azores. Little change was made to the official
track forecast which is near the middle of the various consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 33.8N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 33.3N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 32.6N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 32.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 32.1N 43.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 34.6N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 37.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Advisories

#34 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:05 am

Subtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Joyce's satellite presentation is less than impressive this morning,
with the low-level center exposed to the northwest of a small patch
of deep convection. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on
the latest subtropical classification of ST2.5 from TAFB a 1208Z
ASCAT-B overpass that showed 30-35 kt winds north and northeast of
the center. Cyclone phase space diagrams still show Joyce with a
shallow-to-moderate warm core, and the system remains a subtropical
storm for now.

Little change in intensity is expected during the next few days, as
Joyce will continue to be affected by strong westerly-to-
southwesterly vertical wind shear. The new NHC forecast is a little
below the intensity consensus given the weakening trend seen in the
global models. Dissipation is shown at 96 hours, but it wouldn't be
surprising if Joyce becomes a post-tropical cyclone before that.

The initial motion estimate is 245/05. Joyce is currently situated
a little to the west of an upper-level low, which is currently
steering the system southwestward and southward, and that should
continue for the next day or so. Then, Joyce should begin to
accelerate northeastward ahead of an approaching mid-level trough.
The new NHC track forecast follows the trend of the latest
guidance, and is a little to the west of the previous one through
36 hours. The official forecast is close to the latest HCCA and
TVCA consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 33.7N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 33.1N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 32.2N 44.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 31.9N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 32.5N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 35.5N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#35 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:23 pm

Poor Joyce, almost immediately forgotten lol. Been a naked swirl the last 24 hours but finally firing stuff close to center... just as big sister Helene enters the frame to the SE
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#36 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:31 pm

She's a pretty little naked swirl. :P
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#37 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:39 pm

Surprise! It's tropical now!

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...JOYCE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 44.4W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Advisories

#38 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:58 pm

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Beginning around 6 hours ago, convection redeveloped near the center
of Joyce. Since then, the cyclone has become displaced from the
upper-level low, and an ASCAT overpass around 2330 UTC showed that
Joyce has a small radius of maximum winds of around 30 n mi. Based
on these factors, it appears Joyce has become a tropical cyclone.
The ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of just over 30 kt, but its
possible the instrument slightly under-sampled the maximum winds of
the small cyclone. In addition, convection near the center
increased somewhat after the time of the ASCAT pass. The initial
intensity has therefore been held at 35 kt, making Joyce a tropical
storm.

Joyce has accelerated a little toward the west-southwest, perhaps
more than previously anticipated. As a result, the forecast has
been shifted south at most forecast hours, but not quite as far as
the consensus models would suggest. There is otherwise no change
to the track forecast reasoning, and Joyce is still expected to move
slowly generally southward while Helene passes to the east until
accelerating toward the northeast ahead of a mid-latitude trough in
a day or two.

Despite the recent, and perhaps temporary, resurgence of
convection, no change has been made to the intensity forecast.
None of the guidance shows much intensification, and the NHC
forecast continues to rely on a blend of the intensity consensus
and the GFS and ECMWF, which only show gradual weakening throughout
the forecast period. Considering that the cyclone has only
gradually weakened to this point, this still seems like a reasonable
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 32.9N 44.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 32.2N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 31.7N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 32.2N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 33.3N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 36.0N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#39 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:39 am

Bit of Atlantic eye candy today.

Image
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#40 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:24 pm

Image
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