EPAC: Remnants of NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

EPAC: Remnants of NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:17 am

EP, 94, 2018091718, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1085W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 94, 2018091800, , BEST, 0, 209N, 1088W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 94, 2018091806, , BEST, 0, 218N, 1092W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 94, 2018091812, , BEST, 0, 226N, 1096W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 18, 2018 1:37 pm

A broad and elongated area of low pressure extending from near the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula southwestward for a
few hundred miles continues to produce widespread but disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear
conducive for greater organization, the large size of the system
and interaction with land should inhibit the development potential
of this disturbance. However, this system could still become a
tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves near
Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California. Regardless of
development, this disturbance will likely produce very heavy
rainfall over Baja California Sur and other parts of northwestern
mainland Mexico over the next several days. The risk of mudlslides
and flash flooding may increase as the system tracks northward into
northwestern Mexico through Thursday. Interests in Baja California
Sur and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3997
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#3 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:20 am

NHC just upgraded this to Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E in the Sea of Cortez.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:26 am

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Satellite images show that an area of low pressure has developed
over the Gulf of California overnight within an inverted trough.
This is also supported by 24-hour pressure falls of 3.7 mb at Loreto
just west of its center at 1300 UTC. Microwave imagery shows
curved convective banding features to the east and north of the
center, suggesting organized convection. Therefore the system
is being declared a tropical depression with 25-kt maximum sustained
winds. Infrared imagery shows minimal vertical wind shear over the
system, with a slight restriction to the outflow on its western
side, which is confirmed by recent SHIPS output. However, the
system has only 12 hours or less over water, and it is expected to
move inland without significant strengthening.

An upper-level trough moving into the western United States is
expected to steer the depression north or north-northeast across the
Gulf of California into northwest Mexico tonight, which is well
advertised by the track guidance. The depression is expected to
dissipate in the 24-36 hour time frame due to steep terrain.

The main impact with the system is expected to be heavy rainfall,
with 5-10 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches
leading to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the
track of the depression.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 26.3N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 28.0N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/1200Z 30.5N 109.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roth/Blake
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

shiny-pebble
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:38 pm

Re: EPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#5 Postby shiny-pebble » Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:43 am

Wow! Has anything formed in the Gulf Of California before?

Too bad this will dissipate quickly, it would have gotten more attention from the forum

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk
2 likes   
Not an meteorologist! Just someone who is interested in weather. Please refer to the NHC and local weather officials to make decisions.
-Jack 8-)

Astromanía
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 735
Age: 25
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
Location: Monterrey, N.L, México

Re: EPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#6 Postby Astromanía » Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:57 am

shiny-pebble wrote:Wow! Has anything formed in the Gulf Of California before?

Too bad this will dissipate quickly, it would have gotten more attention from the forum

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

This also surprise me, normally there is plenty of warm water in the Gulf of California but the problem is the limited space the systems has there, I don´t know if this has happened before, but considering the time this has it won´t strengthen to a tropical storm
1 likes   

zeehag
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 172
Age: 75
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 9:49 pm
Location: mazatlan,sinaloa, mexico, fixing patricia's mess.
Contact:

Re: EPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#7 Postby zeehag » Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:17 am

we are glad it is not going to develop into anything.. been watching since before nhc picked it up...
will merely bring inclement weather without the blow dry cycle fortunately.
0 likes   
life is an adventure meant to be LIVED!!!

http://www.sksolitarybird.org

plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1295
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: EPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#8 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:35 am

shiny-pebble wrote:Wow! Has anything formed in the Gulf Of California before?

This map has all storms back to 1985 and none appear to form in the Gulf of Californina
0 likes   
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 33
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:

Re: EPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#9 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:24 pm

Kiko in 1989 is one of the closest, but still south of the actual Gulf; not sure about other depressions or Atlantic crossovers, but it's gotta be super rare
0 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:51 pm

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Satellite imagery has been showing an impressive band of strong
convection around the eastern semicircle of the depression over the
last few hours as the center of circulation has edged a little
farther away from the Baja Peninsula. A timely 1650Z ASCAT showed
some 25 to 30 kt winds within the band of colder convective tops,
and since that time there has been perhaps some slightly better
defined banding features. The initial intensity will be set at 30
kt based on this information.

The forecast reasoning has changed little since the last advisory.
The depression will lift north over the next 6 hours and a landfall
is expected over northwest Mexico within the next 12 hours as the
system comes under the influence of a mid- to upper-level trough
moving into the western United States. This will not afford much
time for the system to develop despite being over very warm SSTs and
within a low-shear environment. The depression will rapidly
dissipate early Thursday as it moves inland over the high terrain of
the Sierra-Madre Occidental.

The main hazard with the system will be heavy rainfall, with 5-10
inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches leading to
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the track of the
depression. Moisture associated with the depression and eventually
its remnants will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened
risk of flash flooding in the Southwest United States today through
Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 27.0N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 28.3N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Orrison/Blake
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:32 pm

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Recent microwave images and surface observations suggest that the
center of the depression is very near the coast of northwestern
Mexico, just south-southeast of Guaymas. However, much of the
associated convection is already inland over northwestern Mexico.
The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt since the cloud tops are
not as cold as they were earlier today when an ASCAT pass showed
peak winds in the 25-30 kt range, and much of the circulation is
already interacting with the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico.
Since the center will be moving inland over the rugged terrain of
northwestern Mexico very soon, additional weakening is forecast and
the depression is expected to on Thursday.

The main hazard associated with this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall. Widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches and isolated amounts
up to 15 inches are forecast in the Mexican states of Sonora and
northern Sinaloa. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides. Moisture associated with the depression, and
its remnants, will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened
risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States tonight and
Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 27.3N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 28.5N 109.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 28 guests