ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[Nimbus]

The 12Z GFS shows shear dropping over the next 48 hours. By 48 hours, there might be an anticyclone over 98L depending on where it tracks... if it tracks SW, it could find less shear in a day or two.

Thanks for the heads up, I looked at an earlier GFS and saw this getting pulled NE in about 5 days as a sheared circulation.
Which models bring it SW?

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A non-tropical area of low pressure with gale-force winds, located
about 100 miles north-northeast of Bermuda, is moving southeastward
at about 15 mph. The combination of dry air associated with a
weakening frontal system and strong upper-level winds are expected
to inhibit any significant development for the next couple of days.
However, conditions could become a bit more conducive for this low
to gradually acquire some tropical characteristics early next week
while the system moves southward on Sunday, and then drifts westward
to the southwest of Bermuda on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[AutoPenalti]

So much for the "lull" period between now and the end of September...

[AutoPenalti]

8 PM TWO:

A non-tropical area of low pressure with gale-force winds, located
about 100 miles north-northeast of Bermuda, is moving southeastward
at about 15 mph. The combination of dry air associated with a
weakening frontal system and strong upper-level winds are expected
to inhibit any significant development for the next couple of days.
However, conditions could become a bit more conducive for this low
to gradually acquire some tropical characteristics early next week
while the system moves southward on Sunday, and then drifts westward
to the southwest of Bermuda on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/bFcRa8y.png

Wait is this 98L? I'm so confused.

[cycloneye]

Why confused? I posted the solo graphic of TWO showing the area of interest but I post it again.

[AutoPenalti]

I just realized that the orange is from a different storm that is "EXPECTED" to develop. Whoops.

[T'Bonz]

WTH...I take one day off from blob watching and all kinds of invests pop up.

Note to once-Florence/potential Kirk. N.C. is CLOSED for the season. Spin off into the sea and stay there.

Signed, N.C.

[AnnularCane]

WTH...I take one day off from blob watching and all kinds of invests pop up.

Note to once-Florence/potential Kirk. N.C. is CLOSED for the season. Spin off into the sea and stay there.

Signed, N.C.

You should write to the steering currents, not the storm.

[EquusStorm]

Shear is decapitating it tonight but clearly this was extremely close to being a tropical storm. Still frontal, at least to some extent, it seems, but everything else seemed pretty clear cut including a very much closed gale center on ASCAT. NHC seems pretty strict this year with their probabilities. I am though pretty pleased at how well models seemed to pick up on something happening here; suspect it's only just beginning as soon as it exits the shear (analyzed at 40-60ks!)

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located just southeast of Bermuda is
producing minimal shower activity while it moves southward at 10 to
15 mph. Although a combination of dry air and strong upper-level
winds is expected to inhibit any significant development over the
next few days, the environment could become conducive for slow
development when the system moves over the southwest Atlantic Ocean
during the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Hoping the front dropping in to become stationary gets moving again after 72 hrs and moves this system NE. We don't need even a subtropical mess of a storm in NC right now of any sort. River levels are still cresting in some communities. I see this weakening and getting caught in the front at 90+ hrs. Hoping the globals are correct in that they are not showing this holding a lot of precip at that time.

[plasticup]

Shear is decapitating it tonight but clearly this was extremely close to being a tropical storm. Still frontal, at least to some extent, it seems, but everything else seemed pretty clear cut including a very much closed gale center on ASCAT. NHC seems pretty strict this year with their probabilities. I am though pretty pleased at how well models seemed to pick up on something happening here; suspect it's only just beginning as soon as it exits the shear (analyzed at 40-60ks!)

I wonder if it will get upgraded in the post-season analysis. It really looked like a TS yesterday. Great convection, closed circulation, etc.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located about 100 miles southeast
of Bermuda is producing minimal shower activity. Development of
this system is not expected during the next couple of days due to
dry air and strong upper-level winds. However, environmental
conditions could become more conducive for slow development when the
system moves over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the early
and middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[OuterBanker]

Yesterday this looked like Kirk. Last night it met it’s fate at the guillotine. Doesn’t have any support from any model so I’m gonna write it off.
One word of caution, it does seem to have a well formed naked swirl. Too many storms this year have come back from the dead once in a more favorable environment.

[LarryWx]

Yesterday this looked like Kirk. Last night it met it’s fate at the guillotine. Doesn’t have any support from any model so I’m gonna write it off.
One word of caution, it does seem to have a well formed naked swirl. Too many storms this year have come back from the dead once in a more favorable environment.

Whereas significant tropical development is still a ? and will need to be watched by you just in case, most models do get it to your region on Tuesday 9/25 as a weak surface low. At the least, it looks to enhance shower activity then there.

[CrazyC83]

With yesterday's blowup, could this go down as an unnamed tropical storm (or an extension of Florence)?

[storm_in_a_teacup]

WTH...I take one day off from blob watching and all kinds of invests pop up.

Note to once-Florence/potential Kirk. N.C. is CLOSED for the season. Spin off into the sea and stay there.

Signed, N.C.

You should write to the steering currents, not the storm.

So... “don’t hate the players, hate the game?”

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure is located a little more than 150 miles
southeast of Bermuda. This low is producing minimal shower
activity, and little development is anticipated for the next day or
two. However, environmental conditions could become more conducive
for slow development by late this weekend or early next week when
the system moves over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[AnnularCane]

So... “don’t hate the players, hate the game?”

I guess so!

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

2. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of
Bermuda is producing only minimal shower activity. Strong upper-
level winds are expected to diminish by Sunday or Monday, which
could allow for some slow development of this system while it moves
westward and then northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean. By the middle of next week, upper-level winds are likely to
strengthen again, which would limit additional development as the
system moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.