ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

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OuterBanker
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#41 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:40 am

Thank God we are in a down cycle. All the sinking air and shear should keep this from developing which is a good thing.
I've rarely seen a so well defined and large LLC that has no chance of developing.
Let's hope it stays that way.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#42 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:54 am

Looks like convection is trying to build and it could get close to the Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#43 Postby storm4u » Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:51 am

Convection starting to pop close to the center now.. let's see how the afternoon goes
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#44 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:37 pm

Up to 20%/40%

A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of
Bermuda is now producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit
development for the next day or so, but conditions could become more
conducive for some development of this system by early next week
while it moves westward and west-northwestward over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean. By the middle of next week, upper-level winds are
likely to increase again, which would limit additional development
as the system turns northward and moves closer to the southeastern
coast of the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#45 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 22, 2018 1:35 pm

Shear dropping, convection picking up.
IMHO, this is the system to watch for potential CONUS impact in the near term.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#46 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Sep 22, 2018 4:16 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#47 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:28 pm

8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south-southwest
of Bermuda is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit
development tonight and Sunday, but conditions could become more
conducive for some development of this system on Monday or Tuesday
while it moves westward and west-northwestward over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean. By the middle of next week, strong upper-level winds
are likely to limit additional development as the system turns
northward and moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United
States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#48 Postby hipshot » Sun Sep 23, 2018 12:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south-southwest
of Bermuda is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit
development tonight and Sunday, but conditions could become more
conducive for some development of this system on Monday or Tuesday
while it moves westward and west-northwestward over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean. By the middle of next week, strong upper-level winds
are likely to limit additional development as the system turns
northward and moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United
States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


Sure doesn't seem like much interest in 98L with it being pretty close to the CONUS. Must not have much of a chance to develop from what
I have read so far. Hope they are right. That part of the country doesn't need any more storms regardless of the size!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#49 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 23, 2018 1:08 pm

2 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to produce limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
The strong upper-level winds currently affecting the system are
expected to diminish, and this could favor some development during
the next couple of days. The low is forecast to move westward and
west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean and by Tuesday or Wednesday, upper-level winds are forecast
to strengthen again, likely limiting the development. By then,
the system is expected to be moving by the southeastern coast of
the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#50 Postby emeraldislenc » Sun Sep 23, 2018 1:54 pm

How close will it come to the NC coast?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#51 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 23, 2018 3:18 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#52 Postby invest man » Sun Sep 23, 2018 5:04 pm


Is that the lastest Euro? If so what is the timing and strength. I'm in Craven county (New Bern) and have family in flooded areas and in Carteret county too!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#53 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:34 pm

8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located about 375 miles southwest of
Bermuda continues to produce limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to become a little
more conducive for development during the next couple of days while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over
the southwestern Atlantic. The low is forecast to turn northward
by Tuesday night, and pass near the southeastern United States coast
on Wednesday. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to
become less favorable while the low begins to move northeastward,
away from the east coast of the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#54 Postby emeraldislenc » Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:46 pm

Just hope it does not come to close to NC. We do not need any more rain.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#55 Postby storm4u » Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:49 pm

Convection really popping now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#56 Postby emeraldislenc » Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:12 pm

What satellite are you seeing it poping
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#57 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:17 pm

storm4u wrote:Convection really popping now

Some but not a lot so it’s only sporadic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#58 Postby storm4u » Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:23 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:What satellite are you seeing it poping


On tropical tidbits

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#59 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:47 am

A broad area of low pressure located about midway between Bermuda
and the Bahamas continues to produce a limited amount of shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become slightly more conducive for development during the next
day or so while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, upper-level winds
are expected to increase, limiting the chances for additional
development, while the system moves northward near the southeastern
United States coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#60 Postby emeraldislenc » Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:15 am

Looks like the thunderstorms are building up
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