ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2018092000, , BEST, 0, 363N, 690W, 35, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 98, 2018092006, , BEST, 0, 356N, 675W, 35, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 98, 2018092012, , BEST, 0, 350N, 661W, 35, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 98, 2018092018, , BEST, 0, 343N, 648W, 35, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 90, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[Hurricaneman]

This may be a real sleeper and may have to be watched from Florida to New England as models tend to underestimate these systems

[gfsperpendicular]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119970 was the TT thread for this object.

It is Florence's baby, as some have put it. Looks fairly well organized at the moment.

However, the high shear is evident in sat loops.

[SFLcane]

This may be a real sleeper and may have to be watched from Florida to New England as models tend to underestimate these systems

Florida? No model brings this even close to the state. Most show this thing doing loops out in the open atlantic then head north. Sub tropics have been very active this season

[Hurricaneman]

This may be a real sleeper and may have to be watched from Florida to New England as models tend to underestimate these systems

Florida? No model brings this even close to the state. Most show this thing doing loops out in the open atlantic then head north. Sub tropics have been very active this season

What you’re seeing is not 98L but another system forecast to develop farther east this weekend

[Kazmit]

Winds of 31mph were just recorded in Bermuda.

[Hurricaneman]

My guess is this will become a subtropical storm either tomorrow or Saturday and tropical storm Saturday or Sunday

[EquusStorm]

And this is BEFORE upper level winds are less hostile

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like a tropical storm

[Hurricaneman]

And this is BEFORE upper level winds are less hostile

https://horsesnhurricanes.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/goes18152018263q2ybka.jpg

I’m thinking this will be a hurricane at some point but that’s what is meant that models underestimate systems like this, in 2015 the models kept Joaquin weak and did almost nothing with it when in reality it was a borderline case for a cat 5 so this system could be a bigger threat then the models are showing

[LarryWx]

The two most likely scenarios imo based on looking at model trends, assuming it becomes a TC, is for either a NC landfall or a recurve a little E of the SE US. I give only a small chance of FL or GA landfall and only a moderate chance for SC as of now. One of the reasons for this prediction is that models are often too far left in the SE US due to maintaining too strong a high to the north. Also, NC and NE SC stick out so much more and are much more vulnerable than lower SC south in this potential situation of a recurving TC as it nears the SE.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/1042846921751060481

[floridasun78]

this what models show ex Florence making loop other day ?

[northjaxpro]

Hopefully shear will get it soon. However, if one is basing on satellite presentation right now, it sure has that "look" to it right now. Nice banding and outflow pretty evident obviously.

But, you can't go by appearance alone of course.

[floridasun78]

looking sat pic better you can see weak low expose to west of storms

[MacTavish]

extreme shear incoming.

[LarryWx]

With 98L already likely too weak on models, a quicker recurve might occur. However, if shear weakens it a lot or if the unusual situation of models underplaying the ridge's persistence were to allow it to go further west than expected, then very warm 29-30C SSTs to the south of Flo's path would be crossed and would put further south at risk. I'm not at all expecting that right now and, of course, it may never even become a TC.

[Hammy]

I'm thinking this has maybe 12 hours or so in which to get named (as I think it's already a tropical storm, or at least subtropical) before getting decapitated by shear.

[Emmett_Brown]

The 12Z GFS shows shear dropping over the next 48 hours. By 48 hours, there might be an anticyclone over 98L depending on where it tracks... if it tracks SW, it could find less shear in a day or two.

[Sciencerocks]

I'm thinking this has maybe 12 hours or so in which to get named (as I think it's already a tropical storm, or at least subtropical) before getting decapitated by shear.

Between the satellite appearance and the ascat there's no question that it is already a tropical storm.