ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

Waited too late to upgrade TD11 but an argument could be made that Kirk was upped too early. I can't imagine the rapid motion, especially not all that far from the Equator and while dealing with the SAL, will do Kirk any favors.

[LarryWx]

I counted 45 TCs that had genesis 9/15-25 E of 55W within the MDR on record since 1851. Of those 44, I counted 17 as close enough to the NHC/modeled track of at least getting close to the L.A.’s to be considered analogs. Of those 17, a little over 50% (9) later either hit the CONUS (6) or came within 150 miles of hitting (3):

Hit: Lili of 2002, Georges of 1998, Gloria of 1985, Inez of 1966, storm 4 of 1894, and storm 9 of 1893.

Close miss: Maria of 2017, storm 8 of 1908, and storm 6 of 1866.

Of course, now there’s increased doubt as to whether Kirk will still be a TC for long. If not, then those 17 will not be analogs.

[Aric Dunn]

A proper convective pattern for a TS looks to have started.

Low level structure looks a lot better.

Microwave from a.couple hours ago just as this recent convective burst was starting

[LarryWx]

There’s only a very slight amount of disagreement in this thread regarding Kirk’s health. I love a strong consensus like this.

[edu2703]

11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 22
Location: 9.0°N 26.4°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph



INIT 23/0300Z 9.0N 26.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 9.4N 28.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 9.9N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 10.1N 37.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 10.2N 41.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 10.6N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 11.8N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 13.3N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like a nice CDO is starting to organize.

[Aric Dunn]

organizing quite well since that initial burst last night. low shear and assuming it can keep fighting off the SAL no reason not to see a hurricane out of this.

[GCANE]

Heavy-duty rain rate.
Still chugging down Hwy 10N

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for TS Kirk...

23/0600 UTC 9.3N 27.7W T2.5/2.5 KIRK
23/0000 UTC 8.9N 26.0W T2.0/2.0 KIRK

[wxman57]

Still looks like a poorly-organized depression this morning. No evidence of TS winds for 24+ hrs. Note how Eleven was torn apart before it could reach the Caribbean. Tough path ahead for Kirk.

[toad strangler]

Normally this low riding track into the Caribbean this time of year would have major implications for somewhere down that road (and still could for the LA) but just goes to show how hostile the region has been and still is.

[GCANE]

Staying around 10N has minimal Coriolis coupling.
I don't expect a stronger LL vort until this can raise further north.
At this point, convection will be the major factor to watch, since this dictates if a warm core can be maintained through latent heating.

[Abdullah]

Why is the Caribbean So hostile this year?

[wxman57]

Why is the Caribbean So hostile this year?

Above-normal wind shear and dry, sinking air. These conditions extend out east of the Caribbean as well, which is why storms aren't surviving past 50W in the deep tropics. Look how Eleven has struggled once it was declared near 50W. It looked quite a bit more impressive east of 50W, when it may well have been a TS.

[Gustywind]

23/1200 UTC 9.6N 29.8W T2.5/2.5 KIRK

[abajan]

[quote="edu2703"]11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 22
Location: 9.0°N 26.4°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics ... d_wind.png

...

Welcome to Storm2K

As you can see, the graphic you posted no longer matches the accompanying text. That's because you "hotlinked" it from the source instead of saving it to an image hosting site and then sharing the image URL they provide.

EDIT: You followed the correct procedure (saved the image at Imgur) with your previous post in this thread.

[Aric Dunn]

Continues to slowly improve in structure and convective orginization. So far SAL has not worked into the system. Winds likely to be raised to 45 at 11 advisory.

[abajan]

organizing quite well since that initial burst last night. low shear and assuming it can keep fighting off the SAL no reason not to see a hurricane out of this.

I doubt this will become a hurricane while east of the Antilles. Save for SSTs, conditions aren't terribly favorable out there. That coupled with its fast, and accelerating, forward motion would suggest it stays a tropical storm. I'm guessing it tops out at around 65 mph, then gradually diminishes in intensity as it approaches the Windward Islands. It may become a cane in the Western Caribbean, though.

[wxman57]

We must be looking at two different storms, Aric. I pieced together an ASCAT from 4 separate images (11Z and 12Z). There's not even good support for an LLC, much lest a strengthening TS. Winds 30 kts at most. NHC will keep it at 35 kts because they don't like to go back and forth between TD/TS.

[LarryWx]

The model consensus is telling me that as long as Kirk doesn’t move W to WNW just N of the Greater Antilles, the CONUS will likely not be affected by Kirk directly as the Caribbean would likely keep him weak and well north of the Antilles would likely recurve well east of the CONUS.