ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#61 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:39 pm

toad strangler wrote:https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1043250640338599937


Looks like there will be shear across the Central and Eastern Caribbean but if 99l can make it to the Western Caribbean in tact enough, it could find better conditions. The very low latitude of this system bears watching because it may allow it to get all the way to the Western Caribbean at a time when the Western Caribbean is climatologically favored for development (and when we hit the “secondary” peak).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#62 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:58 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Blinhart wrote:Could this one actually go South of the Equator??? be a system South America needs to watch. I know there hasn't been many (if any) have hit South America outside the Caribbean. I could see this becoming TD in the next 24 hours if it can keep together as it gets further away from Africa


Well, the steering flow as you approach the equator ( assuming the TC formed north of 4 Degrees then moved south somehow) is away from the equator. So essentially no it cannot as a "hurricane" anyway. Some weak low level vorts may be able to.

however the laws in fluid dynamics would allow for this to happen. but just very unlikely


Interestingly enough.. I found this on another forum. Considering the direction of the circulation it formed south of the equator then moved north and back south.

https://i.imgur.com/YbTLvTr.gif


I can vaguely recall that there was some discussion about this oddity on Storm2K. Looking at the date, I think I know why I don't remember many details. You see, my mom passed less than a month prior. So, my mind was probably in a deep state of grief.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#63 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:20 pm

Slight increase of numbers for 99L... below 8°N.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/0000 UTC 7.9N 21.2W T1.5/1.5 99L
21/1800 UTC 8.2N 20.0W T1.0/1.0 99L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#64 Postby toad strangler » Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:52 pm

Moving W through the only lane possible for survival ATM

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#65 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:04 pm

a fairly large burst of convection over the center we likely have genesis. nighttime visible is fairly telling. but morning images will likely confirm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#66 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:38 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#67 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:17 am

Definitely a TD, ASCAT looks closed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#68 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 22, 2018 1:39 am

We have differential cloud motion. convection building southward on the west side while convection building northward on the east side. Low mid to upper-level shear. As long as low-level shear from its forward motion is not high we could see deepening TS by 00z tomorrow.

this to note.... the convection building well to the north where the apparent SAL is which means the dry air might not be as bad.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#69 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:29 am

80%/80%

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized near the center of a low pressure system located about
500 miles south of the southern Cabo Verde Islands, and a tropical
depression appears to be forming. If these trends continue,
advisories will be initiated on this system later today while the
low moves westward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#70 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:39 am

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/0000 UTC 7.9N 21.2W T1.5/1.5 99L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#71 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:44 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#72 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:54 am

TD at 11 AM.

22/1200 UTC 7.7N 23.0W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#73 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:56 am

I'm interested to see the NHC's intensity forecast since the models don't seem too enthusiastic about it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#74 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:09 am

ASCAT, a little over 2 hrs ago

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#75 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:14 am

Looks good for intensification
Off-the-scale rain rate

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#76 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:29 am

Looks less impressive than yesterday. Many systems have a weak LLC when they emerge off the west coast of Africa. It is going to have a tough time with the environment between it and the Caribbean. Dry, dusty air is flowing into it now. It may well look like TD Eleven as it nears the Caribbean.

I'm looking at the high-res Euro and GFS plotting isobars at 0.25mb intervals. Both lose the closed low in 18hrs, though they did initialize it well. Forward speed 20-21 kts. I would definitely not upgrade this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#77 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:54 am

I pulled up the GFS and high-res Euro (3-hr intervals) and put together a track for 99L. I plotted mslp in the GFS at 0.25mb intervals and the Euro at 0.5mb intervals. Starting at 15Z (10am CDT this morning), the result is the track below. Both move it at 20-21 kts for the first 3 days, losing the LLC by 24 hours. As it nears the Caribbean by 96 hrs, both indicate slowing to 15-16 kts. Slowing = increased low-level convergence, and both re-find the LLC, but with a pressure of 1006-1008 mb. It moves through the southern islands Thursday morning (5 days) then dissipates north of Venezuela. Looks quite reasonable to me, given the hostile environment in its path.

By the way, the graphic below (and speed calculations) was made using an Excel program developed by my former coworker. He is a whiz at Excel. We set the initial time on the first line then type in an hour interval and lat/lons and it plots each point and calculates forward speed between the points.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#78 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:55 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks less impressive than yesterday. Many systems have a weak LLC when they emerge off the west coast of Africa. It is going to have a tough time with the environment between it and the Caribbean. Dry, dusty air is flowing into it now. It may well look like TD Eleven as it nears the Caribbean.

I'm looking at the high-res Euro and GFS plotting isobars at 0.25mb intervals. Both lose the closed low in 18hrs, though they did initialize it well. Forward speed 20-21 kts. I would definitely not upgrade this.


99L's low latitude " moist lane" is much more fragmented then it was looking 24 and 48 hours ago. The GFS does show a consistent injection of dry air from the N as 99L moves W all the way through the Lesser Antilles.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#79 Postby ouragans » Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:00 am

wxman57 wrote:I pulled up the GFS and high-res Euro (3-hr intervals) and put together a track for 99L. I plotted mslp in the GFS at 0.25mb intervals and the Euro at 0.5mb intervals. Starting at 15Z (10am CDT this morning), the result is the track below. Both move it at 20-21 kts for the first 3 days, losing the LLC by 24 hours. As it nears the Caribbean by 96 hrs, both indicate slowing to 15-16 kts. Slowing = increased low-level convergence, and both re-find the LLC, but with a pressure of 1006-1008 mb. It moves through the southern islands Thursday morning (5 days) then dissipates north of Venezuela. Looks quite reasonable to me, given the hostile environment in its path.

By the way, the graphic below (and speed calculations) was made using an Excel program developed by my former coworker. He is a whiz at Excel. We set the initial time on the first line then type in an hour interval and lat/lons and it plots each point and calculates forward speed between the points.

http://wxman57.com/images/99L.JPG


Very intesting method
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#80 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:09 am

Special Message from NHC Issued 22 Sep 2018 14:08 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM AST on Tropical Storm Kirk, located well south of the Cabo Verde Islands.
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