ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

[abajan]

I can't read that. It's too small. Could you make it a bit bigger and bolder?

[wxman57]

By the way, the graphic below (and speed calculations) was made using an Excel program developed by my former coworker. He is a whiz at Excel. We set the initial time on the first line then type in an hour interval and lat/lons and it plots each point and calculates forward speed between the points.

http://wxman57.com/images/99L.JPG

Very interesting method

He made maps for all parts of the Atlantic basin. The above is the full-basin view. It's a good way to visualize a model consensus track and see how fast a system may move prior to entering the data into our forecast program.

[AnnularCane]

Well on its way. should be an interesting system to track. possible very long track system.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/api/image?products=G16-ABI-FD-BAND03.100&width=836&height=464&client=RealEarth&background=terrain&labels=line&center=7.874680033319339,-19.758692325767015&zoom=6&timeproduct=G16-ABI-FD-BAND03&timespan=-25t&animate=true&animationspeed=100

She is chomping on that SAL...look at the outflow boundary, and the sand you can see on the visible.

Don’t assume its gender yet. You are fully aware they’re not mature enough to be sexed unless they’re tropical storm strength

Yep, as it turns out, this is no "she." Congrats, it's a boy!

[AdamFirst]

NHC track follows closely to wxman's homemade map

[cycloneye]

Abajan.track ends near you but is early.

[msbee]

I can't read that. It's too small. Could you make it a bit bigger and bolder?

Just in case you were not paying attention!

[wxman57]

Going 50 kts is a big stretch, I think. I'm thinking 30-35 kts max. I'm weakening it to a TD within 24 hrs then possibly up to 35 kts in 4 days as it approaches the Caribbean then back to a TD by day 6 and remnant low day 7.

[SFLcane]

57 do you foresee any strengthening once in the western part of the Basin? I this low latitude it’s a bit interesting interns of this potentiallly affecting the southeast in some fashion.

[meriland29]

Kirk has a LONGG way to go, however all models suggest he will be long dead by then...

[wxman57]

57 do you foresee any strengthening once in the western part of the Basin? I this low latitude it’s a bit interesting interns of this potentiallly affecting the southeast in some fashion.

I see it dissipating in the south-central Caribbean next Friday/Saturday.

[Shell Mound]

Isn't this the southernmost tropical storm to form so far east in the North Atlantic basin since 1851?


Source: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

Edit: Indeed, it is—by a tremendous margin. Cue the Trekkies...

 https://twitter.com/paulstorms/status/1043519688917958657

[wxman57]

I think it's another indication of just how hostile the MDR is this season. We've had tiny Beryl form south of a SAL outbreak and small/weak Isaac dissipating as it neared the Caribbean. TD Eleven dissipating east of the Caribbean. Now Kirk, which may not survive as a TS to reach the Caribbean.

[Shell Mound]

I think it's another indication of just how hostile the MDR is this season. We've had tiny Beryl form south of a SAL outbreak and small/weak Isaac dissipating as it neared the Caribbean. TD Eleven dissipating east of the Caribbean. Now Kirk, which may not survive as a TS to reach the Caribbean.

Respectfully, I think the eastern MDR has actually been quite favourable, while the western MDR, as you mentioned, has been quite hostile. Had the eastern MDR been unfavourable, we would have not witnessed four hurricanes developing in the deep tropics close to West Africa. The fact that we are seeing so many storms, albeit most weak and/or short-lived, in the MDR might be an ominous sign, given the persistence of strong vertical wind shear, subsidence, and cooler-than-average SSTs. The active African monsoon was enough to partly offset the hostile indicators. If 2019 features warmer SSTs and lower vertical wind shear, with all other factors remaining unchanged vs. 2018, we could see another hyperactive season in the MDR, similar to or even more active than 2017. Even 2017 featured only four storms in the MDR: Irma, Jose, Lee, and Maria. We have already seen five in 2018: Beryl, Florence, Helene, Isaac, and now Kirk. Due to the unfavourable western MDR, of course, none of these storms survived to reach the Caribbean. (Florence and Helene, obviously, passed well to the north and east of the Caribbean.) Bottom line: given how hostile most of the indicators have been in 2018, the fact that we are still seeing so much activity seems disconcerting.

[northjaxpro]

I am loving the Captain James memes ... We all should have fun with this one as long as Kirk doesn't harm anyone!!

[wxman57]

I think it's another indication of just how hostile the MDR is this season. We've had tiny Beryl form south of a SAL outbreak and small/weak Isaac dissipating as it neared the Caribbean. TD Eleven dissipating east of the Caribbean. Now Kirk, which may not survive as a TS to reach the Caribbean.

Respectfully, I think the eastern MDR has actually been quite favourable, while the western MDR, as you mentioned, has been quite hostile. Had the eastern MDR been unfavourable, we would have not witnessed four hurricanes developing in the deep tropics close to West Africa. The fact that we are seeing so many storms, albeit most weak and/or short-lived, in the MDR might be an ominous sign, given the persistence of strong vertical wind shear, subsidence, and cooler-than-average SSTs. The active African monsoon was enough to partly offset the hostile indicators. If 2019 features warmer SSTs and lower vertical wind shear, with all other factors remaining unchanged vs. 2018, we could see another hyperactive season in the MDR, similar to or even more active than 2017. Even 2017 featured only four storms in the MDR: Irma, Jose, Lee, and Maria. We have already seen five in 2018: Beryl, Florence, Helene, Isaac, and now Kirk. Due to the unfavourable western MDR, of course, none of these storms survived to reach the Caribbean. (Florence and Helene, obviously, passed well to the north and east of the Caribbean.) Bottom line: given how hostile most of the indicators have been in 2018, the fact that we are still seeing so much activity seems disconcerting.

The MDR, as a whole, has been quite hostile. The only exception has been near the Cabo Verde Islands. Too early to think about 2019.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1043520342264696834

[Shell Mound]

I think it's another indication of just how hostile the MDR is this season. We've had tiny Beryl form south of a SAL outbreak and small/weak Isaac dissipating as it neared the Caribbean. TD Eleven dissipating east of the Caribbean. Now Kirk, which may not survive as a TS to reach the Caribbean.

Respectfully, I think the eastern MDR has actually been quite favourable, while the western MDR, as you mentioned, has been quite hostile. Had the eastern MDR been unfavourable, we would have not witnessed four hurricanes developing in the deep tropics close to West Africa. The fact that we are seeing so many storms, albeit most weak and/or short-lived, in the MDR might be an ominous sign, given the persistence of strong vertical wind shear, subsidence, and cooler-than-average SSTs. The active African monsoon was enough to partly offset the hostile indicators. If 2019 features warmer SSTs and lower vertical wind shear, with all other factors remaining unchanged vs. 2018, we could see another hyperactive season in the MDR, similar to or even more active than 2017. Even 2017 featured only four storms in the MDR: Irma, Jose, Lee, and Maria. We have already seen five in 2018: Beryl, Florence, Helene, Isaac, and now Kirk. Due to the unfavourable western MDR, of course, none of these storms survived to reach the Caribbean. (Florence and Helene, obviously, passed well to the north and east of the Caribbean.) Bottom line: given how hostile most of the indicators have been in 2018, the fact that we are still seeing so much activity seems disconcerting.

The MDR, as a whole, has been quite hostile. The only exception has been near the Cabo Verde Islands. Too early to think about 2019.

Respectfully, just to clarify: by "eastern MDR," I meant the part of the MDR that is closest to the Cabo Verde islands and the West African mainland.

I do think that some extrapolation based on real-time verification could prove potentially useful for generalised, broad, long-range forecasting.

[Aric Dunn]

I am not surprised considering how well it looked last alnight and this morning. Looks much improved compared to yesterday in overall structure. Will likely have this one around awhile.

[wxman57]

I am not surprised considering how well it looked last night and this morning. Looks much improved compared to yesterday in overall structure. Will likely have this one around awhile.

Interesting. Looks less-organized to me. Time to head out on a bike ride between storms.

[Cypresso]

Having scanned the thread here I see that I don't have to worry about Kirk. And to think I had some concerns. Back to the chat I go. I enjoy the chat, by the way. Much more comfortable there.