ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

A mere 5kt slowdown would probably close this off--still seems to be moving too fast at the moment.

[Aric Dunn]

This is closed. the low level circ is very visible now. partially exposed look at attached loop or whatever loop you like clear as day. ASCAT has always had issues with fast moving TC's with heavy convection.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

2. The remnants of Kirk are located more than 800 miles east of the
Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph.
This system continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms, along with winds to near gale force on its north
side. Although satellite data indicate that the system still lacks
a closed circulation, this disturbance could still redevelop into a
tropical cyclone during the next day or two before it moves into an
area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds as it approaches the
Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should
monitor the progress of this disturbance as gusty winds and locally
heavy rains are likely over the next couple of days even if the
system does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[wxman57]

Time may be running out for Kirk to regain TS strength. Note all the outflow boundaries pushing out to the west ahead of it. Also, the wind shear increases significantly once it gets to around 53W. It should have a fate similar to Isaac over the next couple of days.

[SoupBone]

If this remains in place, this shear wall is unavoidable.

[Aric Dunn]

Well at least there will be no doubt about the Circ by tomorrow because it will be exposed completely. lol

[boca]

Ex Kirk will not making it passed 62W it will be shredded

[EquusStorm]

ASCAT is still a bit chaotic but the visible loops are pretty telling, there is a westerly component in that surface spin. Not sure what else they'd want to see without recon or a completely exposed center once it starts dying to provide better ASCAT data; at which point classifying it as a TC is a moot point heh.

[Aric Dunn]

ASCAT is still a bit chaotic but the visible loops are pretty telling. Not sure what else they'd want to see without recon or a completely exposed center once it starts dying to provide better ASCAT data; at which point classifying it as a TC is a moot point heh.

Exactly...

[MississippiWx]

Looks like Kirk has regenerated on visible, and that goes with the increase in development probs from the NHC.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1044666802847043585

[Aric Dunn]

CEnter is covered now with deep convection still building from the N to S quads. if we get a new microwave. would not be surprised to see a proto eyewall on that eastern side.

not likely to last long of course unless the shear axis shifts north somewhat.

[AutoPenalti]

It’s still pretty open, I’m very pessimistic about this one unlike most others that I believe tend to have the drive to reorganize. Shear is about to be as a strong as it’s been in the Carribean and it won’t last the trek.


Maybe I just jinxed it who knows.

[brohavwx]

A mere 5kt slowdown would probably close this off--still seems to be moving too fast at the moment.

My last estimate has it at about 15 mph forward speed. I think it will slow down a bit more as it gets closer to the islands as steering may diffuse a bit by Thursday, maybe before.

[cycloneye]

Closed.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1044675227676893185

[LarryWx]

CEnter is covered now with deep convection still building from the N to S quads. if we get a new microwave. would not be surprised to see a proto eyewall on that eastern side.

not likely to last long of course unless the shear axis shifts north somewhat.

Or unless the track ends up north near or N of the GA's such as the inferior NAVGEM and a number of GEPS members have.

[Aric Dunn]

It has been clearly visibly closed since earlier this morning when it became exposed briefly.

now do to the sun angle the low level CU line have become more noticeable.

[EquusStorm]

Was probably at least weakly closed for a day now with the only caveat being forward motion, buuuut, see Tropical Depression 11. Not that it will survive for very long even if the NHC decides to issue advisories again but would be nice of they'd acknowledge that it's about as closed now as it was when they named it lol.

[Aric Dunn]

hopefully, a better microwave comes in. but even with this the curved bands are very noticeable and the center is just under the convection.

[AnnularCane]

It has been clearly visibly closed since earlier this morning when it became exposed briefly.

Like he was trying to prove to everybody that he had a closed circulation?