ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:15 am

AL, 90, 2018092200, , BEST, 0, 350N, 450W, 25, 1008, EX, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS030, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030,
AL, 90, 2018092206, , BEST, 0, 340N, 440W, 30, 1005, EX, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS030, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030,
AL, 90, 2018092212, , BEST, 0, 340N, 430W, 30, 1003, EX, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS030, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030,
AL, 90, 2018092218, , BEST, 0, 320N, 447W, 30, 1003, EX, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 420, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030, SPAWNINVEST, al742018 to al902018,


Will be facinating to watch this system as it will be out there for many days.

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119961

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1043470954612105217


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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:22 am

Associated with a huge PV Streamer.
Interesting if /when it breaks off.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 1:01 pm

2 PM TWO:

A frontal non-tropical low pressure system is located about 1000
miles west-southwest of the Azores. Conditions are expected to
become conducive for this low to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next day or so, and a subtropical or
tropical cyclone is likely to form by early next week while the low
meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. For more information on
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#4 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Sep 22, 2018 1:17 pm

Another Nadine, maybe? :grrr:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#5 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 22, 2018 1:48 pm

Both the Euro and the GFSs think this one will be around for a while.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#6 Postby Abdullah » Sat Sep 22, 2018 1:57 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Another Nadine, maybe? :grrr:

No, it'll be another Leslie or Michael... We may not see Nadine for a while... :wink:
Last edited by Abdullah on Sat Sep 22, 2018 3:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 2:19 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#8 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 22, 2018 2:36 pm

I honestly can't see anything more than another short-lived Debby or Ernesto type storm coming from this given the non-GFS runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 5:49 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:27 pm

8 PM TWO:
A non-tropical low pressure system is located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Azores. Conditions are expected to become
conducive for this low to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next day or so, and a subtropical or
tropical cyclone is likely to form by early next week while the
low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:47 pm

Little traffic to this thread so far but I know this system will be in the middle of the Ocean without affecting any area however, it will be great to watch how it evolves and I am sure there will be some good pics to see as it meanders for days so stop by and discuss about it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:10 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#13 Postby meriland29 » Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:38 pm

What are the chances that the storm does not take off (officially) North and East but rather South and west?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#14 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:27 pm

A lot of models DO (or did) take it south and west, but slowly; wow this is trying to head subtropical pretty quickly.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#15 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Sep 23, 2018 12:48 am

Interesting discussion.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The evolution of a complex weather system over the central Atlantic
Ocean could lead to two separate episodes of subtropical or
tropical development during the upcoming week. First, a
non-tropical low pressure system currently located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Azores is producing gale-force winds with
some associated showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next day or so while meandering over the
central Atlantic Ocean, and the low could become a subtropical or
tropical cyclone before it is overtaken and absorbed by a cold front
late Tuesday or Wednesday. Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A second non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form
along the central Atlantic cold front by Wednesday several hundred
miles west of the Azores. Conditions appear conducive for this
system to also acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by
the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#16 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Sep 23, 2018 1:22 am

If 98L gets named, that bizarre evolution might honestly mean we could be at Nadine before October.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:35 am

8 AM TWO:

The evolution of a complex weather system over the central Atlantic
Ocean could lead to two separate episodes of subtropical or
tropical development during the upcoming week. First, a non-
tropical low pressure system currently located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Azores is producing gale-force winds with
some associated showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next day or so while meandering over the
central Atlantic Ocean, and the low could become a subtropical or
tropical cyclone before it is overtaken and absorbed by a cold front
late Tuesday or Wednesday. Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#18 Postby Abdullah » Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:17 am

On Dvorak, it literally looks like half a cyclone.
https://ibb.co/c12R1p
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#19 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:49 am

I thought Leslie was supposed to be around for a while. Or was that 98L?
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#20 Postby shiny-pebble » Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:51 am

AnnularCane wrote:I thought Leslie was supposed to be around for a while. Or was that 98L?
I'm not 100% sure but I think it might be the low to the north of Leslie.

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