ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AnnularCane]

I thought Leslie was supposed to be around for a while. Or was that 98L?

I'm not 100% sure but I think it might be the low to the north of Leslie.

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This is getting confusing!

[cycloneye]

I thought Leslie was supposed to be around for a while. Or was that 98L?

I'm not 100% sure but I think it might be the low to the north of Leslie.

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This is getting confusing!

It will be the low that the TWO mentions.

[EquusStorm]

That's a lotta subtropical storms.

[Kazmit]

The discussion mentions that it's supposed to be absorbed by a larger low. Will that be the other AOI right next to it that's supposed to stay around for longer?

[storminabox]

Damn! The subtropics have been on absolute fire this year!

[mitchell]

Damn! The subtropics have been on absolute fire this year!

i agree...it will be interesting to look at the percentage of ACE this season that occurred north of 30. I'll bet WAY above average.

[CrazyC83]

This is so confusing about what will be what! At first I thought that would just be Leslie spinning like crazy, not a new storm...

[HurricaneRyan]

Any update on Leslie?

[AnnularCane]

Any update on Leslie?

You mean the NHC update? Not for another couple of hours.

[wxman57]

Looks like a frontal low, to me. Don't see how it ever qualified as a subtropical storm. It's going to become a very large extratropical storm over the next couple of days.

[mitchell]

Any update on Leslie?

Interesting statement on Leslie from tonights 8:00 p.m TWO.....subtropical...then post tropical...then maybe back to subtropical or tropical by next weekend. Stay tuned.

Subtropical Storm Leslie is expected to become post-tropical
Tuesday night or Wednesday after it merges with a cold front over
the central Atlantic. After that time, Leslie could reacquire some
subtropical or tropical characteristics by the end of the week as
it meanders over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[supercane4867]

According to 18z GFS, the full timeline of Leslie looks like this:

Extratropical -> Subtropical -> Extratropical -> Subtropical -> Tropical -> Extratropical -> Subtropical -> Extratropical

[EquusStorm]

I'd love to see a long term loop of this whole ridiculous evolution once this ends in a couple weeks. Fascinating system.

[Hammy]

Any update on Leslie?

Interesting statement on Leslie from tonights 8:00 p.m TWO.....subtropical...then post tropical...then maybe back to subtropical or tropical by next weekend. Stay tuned.

Subtropical Storm Leslie is expected to become post-tropical
Tuesday night or Wednesday after it merges with a cold front over
the central Atlantic. After that time, Leslie could reacquire some
subtropical or tropical characteristics by the end of the week as
it meanders over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

So are they now expecting this to all be Leslie rather than two separate systems?

[cycloneye]

Looks like this system will remain all the way instead of separated ones.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 33.1N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 32.9N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 26/1200Z 34.5N 41.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0000Z 36.2N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0000Z 36.9N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/0000Z 36.5N 47.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0000Z 36.5N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

[galaxy401]

Looks like this system will remain all the way instead of separated ones.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 33.1N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 32.9N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 26/1200Z 34.5N 41.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0000Z 36.2N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0000Z 36.9N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/0000Z 36.5N 47.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0000Z 36.5N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

That's one of the oddest forecasts I've seen from an advisory.

[Monsoonjr99]

I wonder how much certainty there is if Leslie will remain the same storm or if perhaps the latest TWO is wrong and it turns out to be a separate system after all?

[cycloneye]

Leslie will be around for a while.

Leslie is forecast to strengthen during the next couple of days due
to baroclinic processes. The official forecast, based on the GFS and
European global models, and the SHIPS statistical intensity
guidance, shows an increase of the sustained winds to hurricane
force in 2 days, around the same period that the shear drops below
10 kt. The non-tropical low is then forecast to move south of the
strong upper-level westerlies and detach from the frontal boundary.
According to the global models and the Florida State Cyclone Phase
forecast, Leslie should make a transition from a frontal system to
an asymmetric shallow warm-core seclusion. Beyond day 3, guidance
suggests that Leslie will acquire subtropical characteristics and a
more symmetric, deepening warm-core low while meandering in weaker
steering currents. The intensity forecast follows this scenario and
is based on the aforementioned global and statistical models.

[Michele B]

Looks like this system will remain all the way instead of separated ones.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 33.1N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 32.9N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 26/1200Z 34.5N 41.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0000Z 36.2N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0000Z 36.9N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/0000Z 36.5N 47.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0000Z 36.5N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

That's one of the oddest forecasts I've seen from an advisory.

I thought you could only be POST-Tropical AFTER you had been tropical!

[gfsperpendicular]

Looks like this system will remain all the way instead of separated ones.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 33.1N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 32.9N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 26/1200Z 34.5N 41.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0000Z 36.2N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0000Z 36.9N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/0000Z 36.5N 47.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0000Z 36.5N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

That's one of the oddest forecasts I've seen from an advisory.

I thought you could only be POST-Tropical AFTER you had been tropical!

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 33.1N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 32.9N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-SUB-TROPICAL
36H 26/1200Z 34.5N 41.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-SUB-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0000Z 36.2N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-SUB-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0000Z 36.9N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-SUB-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/0000Z 36.5N 47.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-SUB-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0000Z 36.5N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...RESUBTROPICAL STORM

This better?