ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#161 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:22 am

If it heads back to the west it will likely be a tropical cyclone and it could once again become a hurricane.

Of course, that has to do with if it is picked up or is allowed to get under the ridge.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#162 Postby KWT » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:22 am

Worth noting several models now hit Maderia so they may.well requires an tropical storm warning at least down the line.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#163 Postby Blinhart » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:37 am

So is it possible this system could be around until November. Has a system ever lasted over 30 days???? This system is just crazy enough that it might decide to pick up Nadine on its way back West and head on to the Caribbean and then to the US.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#164 Postby plasticup » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:16 am

Blinhart wrote:Has a system ever lasted over 30 days????

27 days is the record. 20 days would get her into the top 10. Today is Leslie's 19th day, and the forecast goes out to day 24 at least.

Source.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#165 Postby tomatkins » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:40 am

plasticup wrote:
Blinhart wrote:Has a system ever lasted over 30 days????

27 days is the record. 20 days would get her into the top 10. Today is Leslie's 19th day, and the forecast goes out to day 24 at least.

Source.

At this point it seems mostly to be a matter of whether it dies out off of the coast of Africa. If it survives that, I expect it will track westward for long enough to break the Atlantic record.

But right now both GFSs and the Euro operational have it spinning down off of Morocco., Seems like to survive it probably needed to turn a little sooner.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#166 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:19 pm

I believe it is the first time a tropical alert has been needed for Madeira?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#167 Postby Condor » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:57 pm

If she make the turn back west due to getting under the high I don't see anything stopping her from tracking along the ridge in favorable shear conditions and a week from now we are talking about a possible east coast hit in the US. Now this is just based off of what I am seeing currently in the models and as we all know conditions can change dramatically. Just food for thought
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#168 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:12 pm

Almost a cat 2.

AL, 13, 2018101200, , BEST, 0, 304N, 352W, 80, 969, HU
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#169 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:54 pm

"Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 63
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR MADEIRA ISLAND DUE TO LESLIE..."



"Leslie is a fairly large tropical cyclone and the forecast wind
radii encompass Madeira Island within 36 hours. Consequently, a
tropical storm warning has been issued for that island. It is the
first known tropical storm warning for that place, and there are
no known tropical storms in the historical record anywhere
within 100 miles of that island, with the closest being Vince of
2005."


Past track, and forecast track, of Leslie:

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All Atlantic National Hurricane Center best track data, of tropical storms or higher, since 1851:

Image
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#170 Postby bob rulz » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:00 pm

So if this does become post-tropical again, would it have a chance to transition back into a tropical system yet again taking that path? What are models indicating?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#171 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:02 pm

Delta 2005 significantly affected the Canary Islands during extratropical transition, but had no impacts on Madeira.

Leslie will be the first ever TC hit for them in this record-breaking season.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#172 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:04 pm

bob rulz wrote:So if this does become post-tropical again, would it have a chance to transition back into a tropical system yet again taking that path? What are models indicating?

Not likely since it's going too far east. If it makes the turn before 25W then there could be a chance.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#173 Postby chaser1 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:07 pm

Condor wrote:If she make the turn back west due to getting under the high I don't see anything stopping her from tracking along the ridge in favorable shear conditions and a week from now we are talking about a possible east coast hit in the US. Now this is just based off of what I am seeing currently in the models and as we all know conditions can change dramatically. Just food for thought


The kind of food for thought that brings a sensation of Salmonella along with it :roflmao: #stopthemadness #isthatacoldfrontinyourpocket
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#174 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:23 pm

Colored lines show the wind speed. Even extratropical storms will be colored as either a TS or hurricane. If an extratropical storm is less than tropical storm force, then it appears as white. Leslie forecast track included.

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The first 62 NHC advisories on Leslie:

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Forecast colors: Blue - TD, Green - TS, Orange - Category 1

The 5pm AST Thursday NHC advisory is highlighted. The 11pm advisory, the 63rd forecast track, is not included. Just wanted to show how long the NHC has been at it. Longer actually, because there was the period when it was extratropical.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#175 Postby edu2703 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:54 am

11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 12
Location: 33.0°N 28.0°W
Moving: ENE at 32 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

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INIT 12/1500Z 33.0N 28.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 34.2N 23.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 35.4N 17.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 36.0N 12.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 14/1200Z 36.3N 9.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 15/1200Z 37.0N 4.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#176 Postby SconnieCane » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:21 am

Yeesh, it could practically shoot the Straight of Gibraltar and reform into a Medicane. That would be a fitting finale. :lol:
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#177 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:48 am

...HURRICANE LESLIE CONTINUES RACING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...COULD BRING RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA SUNDAY...

11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 12
Location: 33.0°N 28.0°W
Moving: ENE at 32 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

Leslie is expected to bring significant rain and wind impacts to
portions of Portugal and Spain by Sunday, and residents in those
areas should refer to products from their local meteorological
services for more information on these hazards.

The impacts would be much greater than Vince if forecast verifies
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#178 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:50 am

On both GFS and HWRF it doesn't look like Leslie is post-tropical by the time it reaches Portugal and Spain.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#179 Postby gfsperpendicular » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:49 pm

What if Leslie fends off ET transition and stumbles into the med sea as an undeniably tropical cyclone? The NHC would be forced to issue advisories on it... :double:
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#180 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:56 pm

12z HWRF 70kt hurricane landfall over Lisbon

Image
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