ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#101 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:25 pm

Regardless of the details of the forecast track, there
is high confidence that Leslie will meander for quite a while over
the central Atlantic.


That translates to more ACE for the basin that needs to go over 100 units. (Right now at 87.8)
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#102 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:23 pm

Well, the latest NHC discussion is calling it an eye, so I guess it is an eye? :P
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#103 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:41 am

cycloneye wrote:
Regardless of the details of the forecast track, there
is high confidence that Leslie will meander for quite a while over
the central Atlantic.


That translates to more ACE for the basin that needs to go over 100 units. (Right now at 87.8)


100+ ACE is not out of the question if the latest Euro is correct with it meandering around the Atlantic over the next 10 days.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#104 Postby Buck » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:13 am

I think Leslie will take us close to if not over 100 ACE, but it’s also only October 2 so plenty of time left in the season.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#105 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:20 pm

Leslie looking more and more like a hurricane now. Up to 60 knots in the latest Best Track.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#106 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:22 pm

Leslie has generated 4.6 units of ACE within 10 days of her existence so far. NHC 5 day forecast yields an additional ~6 units.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#107 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:57 am

Leslie has finally become a hurricane, the 6th of the season.

Image
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#108 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:28 am

Leslie just keeps chugging along indeed. She is like the Energizer Eveready battery bunny......
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#109 Postby Buck » Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:33 pm

Really turned into a beautiful storm.

Image
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#110 Postby Kazmit » Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:00 pm

It looks like this will be around for at least another week which is good for ACE numbers.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#111 Postby Hammy » Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:25 pm

Kazmit wrote:It looks like this will be around for at least another week which is good for ACE numbers.


Looks like we should get to 100 ACE this year if it can stick around another week (and not weaken significantly at the end)
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#112 Postby Ntxw » Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:08 pm

The next 5 day forecast of the NHC still yields roughly 6 units of ACE. Been fairly consistent regarding that time frame. This on top of about 6.3 units completed.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#113 Postby plasticup » Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:14 pm

This thing is really stripping the sand from Bermuda's beaches.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#114 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:45 pm

Down to Tropical Storm.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018

...LESLIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#115 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:45 pm

Down to Tropical Storm.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018

...LESLIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#116 Postby Kazmit » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:46 pm

plasticup wrote:This thing is really stripping the sand from Bermuda's beaches.

Yes, they have been getting really steep. Good for surfers though.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#117 Postby KWT » Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:19 am

Worth noting most models get far enough south now that Leslie may re enter somewhat warmer waters again. Around the NHC 5 day mark temps are around 26c, a little south again and they go up to 27c. Could be enough for some strengthening again.

A lot of the models are also showing Leslie strengthening again past the 120 hour mark. If that were to happen the Atlantic ocean would go above 100 units.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#118 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:08 am

Will anybody be inviting Leslie over for Thanksgiving dinner? :lol:
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#119 Postby tomatkins » Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:20 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Will anybody be inviting Leslie over for Thanksgiving dinner? :lol:

No but if the GFS plays out, it will break the Atlantic record for longest lasting storm with at least 29 days as a named storm, and depending what happens after the end of the run, could make a run at breaking Hurricane John's 1994 record.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#120 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:25 pm

Imagine if this were Cabo Verde season and Leslie decided to drop southeast into the eastern MDR then hook west and become a classic Verde hurricane. It could happen someday, lol
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.


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