ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Buck
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#121 Postby Buck » Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:03 pm

EquusStorm wrote:Imagine if this were Cabo Verde season and Leslie decided to drop southeast into the eastern MDR then hook west and become a classic Verde hurricane. It could happen someday, lol


After seasons like 2005 and 2017, I don't count anything as impossible!
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#122 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 7:44 am

06z GFS sends Leslie "back to Africa" - landfall on western Sahara as a weak TS/TD
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#123 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:50 am

So Leslie is still hanging around. Might restrengthen into a hurricane later. Some models have the storm turning around near the Canary Islands and going back west.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#124 Postby Kazmit » Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:40 pm

Now forecast to become a hurricane again.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#125 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:52 pm

It would be something if this managed to get into the Mediterranean and kept moving east.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#126 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:52 am

This is impressive.

For the fourth (and hopefully final) time as a tropical or
subtropical cyclone, Leslie has crossed 48W.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#127 Postby shiny-pebble » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:53 am

From the 11AM discussion:

"For the fourth (and hopefully final) time as a tropical or
subtropical cyclone, Leslie has crossed 48W."

NHC is tired of Leslie lol


Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#128 Postby Buck » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:05 am

Not too often that Hurricane and Mainland Portugal are in the same frame. Reminds me of Vince.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#129 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:37 pm

Beginning to restrengthen again. Up to 50 knots on the Best Track.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#130 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:04 pm

From 5PM discussion:

The forecast becomes a nightmare at
long range, however, with very little agreement on whether Leslie is
accelerated ahead of the trough, like the latest FV3GFS, or gets
left behind again, like the ECMWF. These differences result in a
1200 mile spread of the historically reliable models by day 5,
resulting in a very low confidence forecast. The bulk of the
guidance is now indicating that the "left behind" option is becoming
more likely, but continuity dictates making forecast changes in
smaller chunks. So the official forecast is much slower and farther
south at long range, but is well north of the latest model
consensus. Further southward adjustments could be required if model
trends continue.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#131 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:01 am

Leslie following in Nadine's footsteps from 6 years ago
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#132 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:38 am

:uarrow: Too bad Leslie couldn't acquire that name instead, that would've been funny to see history repeat itself in a very similar way :lol:

Also fwiw, the 06z GFS has this around for likely at least another 10 days! Talk about a fish lost at sea. What are the chances this is around into November? :eek:
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#133 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:10 am

The track for this storm will be interesting once it is finally gone.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#134 Postby plasticup » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:15 pm

11 AM discussion has some gems:

Beginning around 36 h, both the track and intensity forecasts become
very uncertain. In general, most of the global models and their
ensembles indicate that Leslie will begin to accelerate toward the
east-northeast or northeast by Thursday as a mid-latitude trough
approaches from the northwest, however the timing and extent of the
interaction is still highly variable from model to model. Based on
the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, a range of possibilities exists, from
Leslie essentially merging with this trough and becoming
extratropical over the far northeast Atlantic, to Leslie interacting
with the trough very little and continuing to meander over the
central Atlantic. There has been a significant change in the
consensus aids to show a slower track for Leslie based on recent
shifts in the deterministic models, but the NHC track forecast has
not been changed nearly as much, out of respect for continuity and
the high uncertainty in the forecast.

The low confidence in the track forecast beyond 36 h affects the
intensity forecast as well, since it is unclear what environment the
storm will be located within. The intensity forecast is therefore
held near the intensity consensus, and still calls for steady
strengthening during the next several days, followed by weakening by
the end of the forecast period. If Leslie moves as far east as
shown in the NHC track forecast, it would likely become a post-
tropical low by day 5, as shown explicitly in the forecast. However,
until confidence in the track increases, I can't rule out that
Leslie could remain a tropical cyclone almost indefinitely if it
continues meandering over the northern Atlantic.


You hear that? Leslie could be a tropical cyclone indefinitely. Just rope off the NE Atlantic - she belongs to Leslie now.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#135 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:32 pm

James Spann quipped in yesterday's Weather Xtreme Video that Leslie could still be around at Christmas.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#136 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:47 pm

Almost a Hurricane.

AL, 13, 2018100918, , BEST, 0, 307N, 431W, 60, 981, TS
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#137 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:57 pm

plasticup wrote:11 AM discussion has some gems:

Beginning around 36 h, both the track and intensity forecasts become
very uncertain. In general, most of the global models and their
ensembles indicate that Leslie will begin to accelerate toward the
east-northeast or northeast by Thursday as a mid-latitude trough
approaches from the northwest, however the timing and extent of the
interaction is still highly variable from model to model. Based on
the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, a range of possibilities exists, from
Leslie essentially merging with this trough and becoming
extratropical over the far northeast Atlantic, to Leslie interacting
with the trough very little and continuing to meander over the
central Atlantic. There has been a significant change in the
consensus aids to show a slower track for Leslie based on recent
shifts in the deterministic models, but the NHC track forecast has
not been changed nearly as much, out of respect for continuity and
the high uncertainty in the forecast.

The low confidence in the track forecast beyond 36 h affects the
intensity forecast as well, since it is unclear what environment the
storm will be located within. The intensity forecast is therefore
held near the intensity consensus, and still calls for steady
strengthening during the next several days, followed by weakening by
the end of the forecast period. If Leslie moves as far east as
shown in the NHC track forecast, it would likely become a post-
tropical low by day 5, as shown explicitly in the forecast. However,
until confidence in the track increases, I can't rule out that
Leslie could remain a tropical cyclone almost indefinitely if it
continues meandering over the northern Atlantic.


You hear that? Leslie could be a tropical cyclone indefinitely. Just rope off the NE Atlantic - she belongs to Leslie now.


Leslie becomes Earth's equivalent to Jupiter's red spot.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#138 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:41 pm

18z GFS takes Leslie to 20W then moving due west all the way to over 40W while intensifying to CAT2+. Maybe it could become a major hurricane someday :lol:
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#139 Postby bob rulz » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:27 pm

supercane4867 wrote:18z GFS takes Leslie to 20W then moving due west all the way to over 40W while intensifying to CAT2+. Maybe it could become a major hurricane someday :lol:


That would sure be something. I suspect the Euro is probably correct but even the chance of the GFS solution happening is pretty crazy to think about.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#140 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:27 pm

Once again is a hurricane.

AL, 13, 2018101000, , BEST, 0, 298N, 427W, 65, 981, HU
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