ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#141 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:42 pm

...EVERLASTING LESLIE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...

11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 9
Location: 29.5°N 42.6°W
Moving: SSE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#142 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:45 pm

Satellite and microwave data indicate that Leslie has become a
hurricane again, almost exactly a week after it did the first time.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#143 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:47 pm

Leslie has made a nice comeback and has regained hurricane intensity.. She continues to rack up the ACE for sure. She' s hanging around for quite awhile longer too!
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#144 Postby bg1 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:49 pm

This part got me.
The hurricane should continue to lose latitude for a day
or so then get accelerated east-northeastward by a mid-latitude
trough until Friday. After that time, there is a ginormous spread
in the model ensembles [...]
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#145 Postby craptacular » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:49 pm

With how serious Michael is, at least we get some humor from the NHC on Leslie. (EDIT: I'm not the only one!)
Leslie is atypically intensifying while moving south-southeastward
at 8 kt. The hurricane should continue to lose latitude for a day
or so then get accelerated east-northeastward by a mid-latitude
trough until Friday. After that time, there is a ginormous spread
in the model ensembles with Leslie's final destination ranging from
Ireland all the way to missing the trough and turning around to the
southwest due to a building eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge.
Compared to 12 hours ago, more of the ensemble members are showing
Leslie getting left behind, which is also reflected in the latest
deterministic runs as well. Something tells me that Leslie has at
least one more trick up its sleeve, so the official forecast shows
this trend, but is very low confidence.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#146 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:55 pm

Just want to bring this up

Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BE A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE...
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#147 Postby bob rulz » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:59 pm

To be fair, her first incarnation only lasted about 2 days.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#148 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:00 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Just want to bring this up

Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BE A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE...


Lol.. Oops. If only this forecaster at NHC could have had any idea LOL. :D
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#149 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:00 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Just want to bring this up

Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BE A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE...


Leslie pulling a SURPRISE BLEEP meme moment this year
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#150 Postby yzerfan » Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:11 pm

She's reminding me of Hurricane Kyle (2002) and Hurricane Epsilon ('I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT.') in terms of storms taking long Atlantic meanders
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#151 Postby bob rulz » Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:33 pm

If it really does end up turning back to the west and surviving, it will surely make it into a handful of miraculous storm tracks and put most to shame in weirdness and longevity.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#152 Postby Macrocane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:53 pm

yzerfan wrote:She's reminding me of Hurricane Kyle (2002) and Hurricane Epsilon ('I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT.') in terms of storms taking long Atlantic meanders


Don't forget 2012 Nadine, it lasted for more than 20 days and made several transitions from subtropical, to tropical, to extratropical, to tropical, to hurricane...like Leslie.

This is the type of systems that I miss and make me sad when they finally dissipate.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#153 Postby StruThiO » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:49 am

Huge burst of convection
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#154 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:05 am

craptacular wrote:With how serious Michael is, at least we get some humor from the NHC on Leslie. (EDIT: I'm not the only one!)
Leslie is atypically intensifying while moving south-southeastward
at 8 kt. The hurricane should continue to lose latitude for a day
or so then get accelerated east-northeastward by a mid-latitude
trough until Friday. After that time, there is a ginormous spread
in the model ensembles with Leslie's final destination ranging from
Ireland all the way to missing the trough and turning around to the
southwest due to a building eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge.
Compared to 12 hours ago, more of the ensemble members are showing
Leslie getting left behind, which is also reflected in the latest
deterministic runs as well. Something tells me that Leslie has at
least one more trick up its sleeve, so the official forecast shows
this trend, but is very low confidence.


I like this gem from Forecaster Blake in Discussion #55:

...I was too
premature last night...


(Referring to predicting Leslie beginning extratropical transition, but :lol: )
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#155 Postby plasticup » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:48 am

This is Day 18 with no end in sight. NHC sees another 5 days, comfortably. GFS keeps this storm going another 10+ days. Everyone is focus on Michael, for obvious reasons, but I think Leslie is one of the coolest storms in several years.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#156 Postby Blinhart » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:42 am

plasticup wrote:This is Day 18 with no end in sight. NHC sees another 5 days, comfortably. GFS keeps this storm going another 10+ days. Everyone is focus on Michael, for obvious reasons, but I think Leslie is one of the coolest storms in several years.


Yeah I could see this storm setting all types of records.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#157 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:50 pm

Hurricane Gordon

Image

life was about 4 weeks. he brought much needed rain to tampa (at the time)
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#158 Postby Kazmit » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:53 pm

Up to 70kts now. Bring on the ACE!
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#159 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:44 pm

Some more zingers from an openly frustrated forecaster in the latest discussion:

I clearly drew the small straw in having to make Leslie's forecast
tonight because this situation is resulting in one of the largest
guidance spreads I have seen, about 1000 miles on day 3 and over
2000 miles at day 5.


Starting to resemble some of the weary quips made in the latter stages of the 2005 season. Who'd have thought in the "unfavorable" year of 2018?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#160 Postby StruThiO » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:14 pm

And there goes adt
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