ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114801
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#81 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:54 pm

Now forecast to be a Hurricane in 96 hours.

96H 03/0000Z 30.5N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 31.5N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3301
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#82 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:30 pm

only Bermuda need watch this may get close too them
1 likes   

plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 823
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#83 Postby plasticup » Sat Sep 29, 2018 7:32 am

floridasun78 wrote:only Bermuda need watch this may get close too them

The models don't show it getting too close. Looks like a strong poleward movement after day 5. The swells are certainly here though.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10069
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#84 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 29, 2018 7:58 am

Like I said yesterday Leslie should put up some nice ACE with now the NHC forecasting it to become a Cat 1 but I wouldn't doubt if it ends up becoming a major before is all done in the 5-7 day range.
1 likes   

User avatar
Buck
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 901
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#85 Postby Buck » Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:14 am

Would love to see Leslie wind up as a major fish 'cane.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 16491
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#86 Postby Ntxw » Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:28 am

The latest Leslie forecast from the NHC still yields 3-4 units through 5 days.

In scenario if it becomes a major (100kts) for at least 24 hours or more then we could be looking at 10 units, and perhaps a few more after that during weakening phase extrapolating days 7-10. CSU 10-15 units is pretty reasonable for the final outcome.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114801
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#87 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:54 am

Ntxw wrote:The latest Leslie forecast from the NHC still yields 3-4 units through 5 days.

In scenario if it becomes a major (100kts) for at least 24 hours or more then we could be looking at 10 units, and perhaps a few more after that during weakening phase extrapolating days 7-10. CSU 10-15 units is pretty reasonable for the final outcome.



Maybe that happens but they are talking about this word. (Upwelling)

The global models forecast that Leslie will separate from the
upper-level low over the course of the next day or so, which should
complete its transition to a tropical cyclone. While this could
result in a short-term increase in shear over Leslie, by early next
week the cyclone will likely be located within a fairly low shear
environment. However, Leslie is expected to move very slowly by that
time, and ocean upwelling could limit or prevent further
strengthening.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#88 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Sep 29, 2018 3:56 pm

Aaaand is tropical now. A little ahead of forecast.
0 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

HurricaneRyan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 608
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:05 pm

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#89 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sat Sep 29, 2018 5:17 pm

Leslie is acting similar to her 2012 counterpart
1 likes   
I'm wide awake

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10069
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#90 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 30, 2018 12:18 pm

Amazing how the swells from a storm thousand of miles away are reaching FL.

https://twitter.com/ndgmetchef/status/1 ... 78275?s=21
0 likes   

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3142
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#91 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 12:36 pm

Apparently both EC and GFS have Leslie misses the next trough and keep her alive in the foreseeable future
1 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 16491
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#92 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 30, 2018 1:10 pm

It will battle shear for about another day or so then conditions will improve for some strengthening to Hurricane. Should peak day 3-7 before less then stellar conditions.

Image
3 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2984
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#93 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 30, 2018 1:27 pm

How fast any residual trailing Leslie related 500 mb weakness near or south of Bermuda fills in and allows for rebuilding ridging there, which will largely be dependent on track and speed of her, will likely have a big say as to whether or not any Caribbean energy, which likely would be at least partially related to Kirk remnants, will move up E of FL or W of FL. The influence of TCs on each other is fascinating to follow!
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114801
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#94 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:54 pm

The global models show the
upper-level pattern becoming more favorable over Leslie in about a
day, which combined with warmer SSTs should allow Leslie to
gradually strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time,
the storm is expected to move northeastward back over its previous
track and cooler waters partly caused by its own upwelling. These
conditions should end the strengthening trend and induce some
weakening.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3769
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#95 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:42 pm

That blob of convection has rotated almost all the way around the circulation somehow without any wrapping or expanding.
2 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10069
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#96 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 01, 2018 6:50 am

Looking much better this morning, probably a 55-60 knot range, IMO.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10069
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#97 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:53 am

Looking better by the minute.

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1465
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#98 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:03 am

She's beautiful. :)

I suppose that's not TECHNICALLY an eye...is it?
1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10069
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#99 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:06 am

AnnularCane wrote:She's beautiful. :)

I suppose that's not TECHNICALLY an eye...is it?


Whatever it is mostly a large COC with multiple vorticities in it, but it has been contracting.
1 likes   

User avatar
gfsperpendicular
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 71
Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:04 pm
Location: Northern Virginia

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#100 Postby gfsperpendicular » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:03 am

:uarrow: perhaps it's some sort of banding eye?

Leslie is fun to look at. :ggreen:
3 likes   
I'm not sleeping, I'm waiting for the 0900 UTC advisory!


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest