ATL: KIRK - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.3N 23.6W
ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 8.3 North, longitude 23.6 West. Kirk is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a westward to west-
northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected to
continue through tonight. A faster westward motion across the deep
tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected Sunday through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast through Sunday, with little change in
intensity forecast on Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km),
mainly to the northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

The area of low pressure located well south of the Cabo Verde
Islands now has a well-defined center and enough organized deep
convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. The initial
intensity is set to 35 kt based on data from recent ASCAT passes
that showed an area of 30-35 kt winds northwest of the center.

Kirk will be moving over SSTs around 27C for the next 36 hours or
so with generally low shear, which should allow for some gradual
strengthening. After that time, the SSTs increase quickly along the
forecast track, but the SHIPS model and global model fields show the
vertical shear increasing, in part due to the very fast low-level
easterly flow. In addition, the GFS and ECMWF global models don't
show much development of the cyclone during the forecast period. As
a result of these factors, little change in strength is forecast
after 48 hours. The NHC forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid
through 48 hours and is near IVCN afterward.

The initial motion estimate is 280/12, but has the usual uncertainty
for a system in the early stages of development. The cyclone is
expected to be steered very quickly westward at low latitudes with
forward speeds reaching 20-25 kt over the next 72 hours to the south
of a mid-level ridge. Late in the period, some gain in latitude and
a slight decrease in forward speed are shown as a weakness in the
ridge develops to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The initial NHC
track forecast is close to HCCA and a little south of the TVCA
consensus, giving a little more weight to the GFS and ECMWF, which
lie on the south side of the track guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 8.3N 23.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 8.8N 25.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 9.3N 29.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 9.4N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 9.6N 38.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 10.3N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 11.0N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 12.5N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

...KIRK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.6N 24.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

The convection associated with Kirk is currently disorganized, with
the majority of it in a cluster to the west of the center. Most of
the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in
the 30-35 kt range, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this
advisory.

The forecast track takes Kirk over SSTs around 27C for the next 36
h or so with generally low shear, which appears favorable for
gradual strengthening. However, there is a possibility that
entrainment of dry air from an area of African dust present to
the north of Kirk may allow less intensification than currently
forecast. From 36-72 h, there is some divergence in the intensity
guidance between the SHIPS and LGEM models, which forecast
strengthening into a hurricane, and the dynamical models, which
forecast little additional strengthening. The intensity forecast
leans toward the dynamical models during that period. After 72 h,
Kirk should encounter increasing westerly shear and gradually
weaken. The intensity forecast, which is unchanged from the
previous forecast, lies a little above the intensity consensus IVCN.

The initial motion is now 290/13. The subtropical ridge to the
north of the storm should steer Kirk quickly westward for the next
72 h or so, with forward speeds reaching 20-25 kt. Later in the
forecast period, Kirk should turn west-northwestward with a
decrease in forward speed as it nears a developing weakness in the
ridge near and to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The new
forecast track, which is closest to the HCCA consensus model, is
shifted a little to the north of the previous track. However, it
continues to lie on the south side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 8.6N 24.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 9.1N 27.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 9.5N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 9.7N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 9.8N 40.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 10.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 11.5N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 13.0N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

...KIRK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.0N 26.4W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

The overall organization of Kirk has changed little since the
previous advisory. The deep convection that was over the western
portion of the circulation has continued to race westward ahead of
the low-level center while a new burst of convection has developed
closer to the center this evening. A couple of ASCAT passes from
just prior to 0000 UTC did not reveal any winds as strong as
this morning, but given the recent increase in convection near the
center the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt, which could be
a little generous.

Recent satellite fixes show that Kirk is moving west-northwestward
or 285 degrees at 14 kt. A narrow subtropical ridge that is
forecast to build westward to the north of Kirk should steer the
cyclone quickly westward during the next few days, with forward
speeds increasing to around 20-22 kt. After that time, the global
models predict that a weakness will develop in the ridge between
50W and 60W which is forecast to cause Kirk to slow down and turn
west-northwestward. The updated NHC track forecast is a little
north of the previous advisory, primarily due to a slightly more
northward initial position as noted in the ASCAT data. Otherwise,
the track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is along
the southern edge of the guidance, closest to a blend of the GFS
and ECMWF, and the HFIP corrected consensus.

Kirk is forecast to traverse warm waters and remain within a low
shear environment during the next couple of days. These conditions
favor strengthening, however as mentioned in the previous
discussion, some dry air lurking just to the north of Kirk could
get entrained into the circulation and limit intensification.
There is still large spread in the intensity guidance with the
statistical guidance showing much more intensification between 24
and 72 h. After 72 hours, increasing westerly shear is expected to
cause weakening. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the HCCA
and IVCN intensity guidance, and follows the trend of the ECMWF and
GFS models that weaken Kirk later in the forecast period. Given the
spread in the guidance, the intensity forecast is of low confidence.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 9.0N 26.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 9.4N 28.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 9.9N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 10.1N 37.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 10.2N 41.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 10.6N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 11.8N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 13.3N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Recent microwave data show that Kirk's center is located near the
eastern edge of the deep convection. There are a few curved bands
trying to form, but overall the convective activity is oriented
along an east-west line extending west of the center. Since Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are T2.5, the initial intensity
remains 35 kt.

Kirk has been accelerating since yesterday, and the current motion
is westward, or 280 degrees, at 16 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging
over the eastern Atlantic is expected to cause Kirk to move even
faster toward the west during the next couple of days, reaching
speeds of at least 22 kt in 24-36 hours. A reduction in speed is
likely after 48 hours once Kirk moves south of a large central
Atlantic trough, but it should still be moving along at a pretty
good clip. The forecast thinking is the same as in previous
advisories, with the latest NHC track forecast still closely
following a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and HFIP Corrected Consensus
model along the southern edge of the guidance envelope. This new
prediction is a little faster than what was indicated in the
previous advisory.

Kirk will be moving over increasingly warmer waters and through a
relatively low-shear environment for the next 2-3 days, which
should allow for some strengthening. The biggest limiting factors
for intensification would be the cyclone's fast motion and possible
entrainment of dry air. Like every other tropical cyclone which
has approached the Lesser Antilles from the east this season, Kirk
is expected to run into strong westerly shear in 4-5 days,
resulting in weakening as the cyclone gets closer to the islands.
The NHC official forecast is still not as high as the
statistical-dynamical guidance and more closely follows the HCCA,
Florida State Superensemble, and intensity consensus, as well as
the trends in the GFS and ECMWF. Based on those global models, it
is possible that Kirk may open up into a trough as it is
approaching the Lesser Antilles and moving into the eastern
Caribbean Sea, but for now the official forecast maintains Kirk as
a tropical storm through day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 9.1N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 9.5N 30.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 10.0N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 10.2N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 10.4N 43.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 10.9N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 12.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 13.0N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Kirk's cloud pattern has a figure 6 configuration, with most of the
deep convective bands over the western semicircle of the
circulation. Microwave imagery indicates that the center is near
the eastern side of the main area of deep convection, as before.
Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB support keeping the
intensity at 35 kt. The storm will be moving over warmer waters
with fairly low shear for the next day or two, so some strengthening
is anticipated in the short term. Later in the forecast period,
increasing westerly shear should cause weakening. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus through 48
hours, and follows the trends shown by the ECMWF and GFS global
guidance thereafter. The latter models suggest that Kirk could open
up into a trough when it nears the Caribbean.

Center fixes indicate that Kirk has been accelerating westward and
the initial motion estimate is now 280/18 kt. A well-defined
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause an even
faster westward motion over the next few days. Near the end of the
forecast period, a weakness in the ridge is likely to lead to a
slowing of the forward speed. The official forecast is a blend of
the latest simple and corrected model consensus forecast tracks and
is also similar to the previous NHC track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 9.3N 30.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 9.8N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 10.2N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 10.5N 41.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 10.7N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 11.2N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 12.3N 57.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 13.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...KIRK MOVING FAST TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 32.3W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Deep convection has diminished near the estimated center of Kirk,
and the main thunderstorm activity is occurring over the
northwestern and western peripheries of the circulation. This has
the appearance of an arc cloud, suggesting that some drier mid-level
air has been entrained into the tropical cyclone. Since the system
should be moving over warmer waters and through low vertical shear
for the next day or so, some strengthening is anticipated into
early this weak. Later in the forecast period, Kirk should be
encountering increasing shear associated with strong upper-level
westerlies over the Caribbean, and this will likely cause
weakening. The official forecast is close to the latest Florida
State University Superensemble prediction and is the same as the
previous NHC forecast.

Based on the latest center fixes, the motion continues swiftly
toward the west, or about 280/20 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge
to the north of Kirk should steer the tropical cyclone westward at
a fairly fast clip for the next couple of days. By days 3-4, the
ridge weakens a bit and Kirk should slow its forward motion
somewhat. The official track forecast has not changed much from
the previous advisory and is close to the latest corrected
consensus model, HCCA, prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 9.5N 32.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 9.9N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 10.2N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 10.4N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 10.6N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 11.6N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 12.9N 58.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 14.0N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Kirk Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Kirk is looking increasingly disheveled in satellite imagery. A pair
of ASCAT passes between 2300 and 0000 UTC indicated that Kirk has
likely opened up into a trough of low pressure and no longer has a
closed surface circulation. However, no recent visible imagery or
surface observations are available to confirm this. Since the ASCAT
passes showed a few 25-30 kt wind vectors on the north side of the
alleged circulation, Kirk is being maintained as a 30 kt tropical
depression for now.

The ASCAT data showed almost no sign of the previous surface center
of Kirk, so the initial position was shifted significantly to the
west, closer to the wave axis. As a result, the NHC track forecast
has also been shifted significantly westward (faster) at all
forecast hours, especially from 12-72 h. Whether Kirk is a
tropical wave, depression, or storm, it should continue moving
rapidly westward for the next couple of days. By mid-week, the
system will reach a break in the subtropical ridge which will result
in a slower forward speed as it approaches and enters the Caribbean.
The NHC track forecast remains on the south side of the guidance
envelope, and is closest to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA.

It is likely that the fast forward speed is preventing Kirk from
becoming better organized and strengthening, and the global models
do not suggest that it will slow down substantially for the next
couple of days. While it is not explicitly reflected in the
forecast, Kirk could dissipate into a tropical wave at any time, if
it hasn't already. By the end of the forecast period, the slower
motion of Kirk could allow for some reorganization, however strong
vertical wind shear over the Caribbean will likely prevent the
system from significantly strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast
has been adjusted down, and is now essentially a blend of the global
and regional dynamical model forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 9.4N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 9.8N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 10.0N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 10.3N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 10.6N 50.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 11.7N 56.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 13.0N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 14.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Kirk Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

...KIRK MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 37.4W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1615 MI...2600 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



Tropical Depression Kirk Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

After having a minimal amount of deep convection late yesterday,
Kirk is now producing some thunderstorm activity in fragmented bands
around the estimated center. However, earlier ASCAT data and low
cloud motion suggest that the circulation resembles a sharp trough
instead of a closed low that is necessary for a tropical cyclone.
Hopefully more visible satellite images and additional scatterometer
data will help better assess the circulation and status of Kirk.
For now, advisories are being maintained on the system, and the
initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data
and a blend of the Dvorak estimates.

Kirk is moving very quickly to the west at about 21 kt, which is
likely the reason why the system has been struggling. A continued
westward motion but at a decreasing forward speed is expected during
the next two to three days while the cyclone remains on the south
side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, a large
deep-layer low pressure system over the central Atlantic should
cause Kirk to gain more latitude. The NHC track forecast is largely
an update of the previous one, and remains near the southern side of
the guidance envelope near the GFS and ECMWF models. This forecast
takes Kirk toward the Lesser Antilles in 3 to 4 days and interests
there should monitor the progress of this system.

Although Kirk will be moving over warmer SSTs and remain in
relatively moist conditions, its fast forward speed will likely
limit the system from strengthening significantly during the next
few days, so only a little intensification is predicted. The global
models show a notable increase in westerly shear when Kirk reaches
the eastern Caribbean Sea in about 4 days, and that should cause
weakening and possibly even dissipation by the end of the forecast
period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the lower side of the
guidance envelope, in best agreement with the NOAA HCCA model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 9.5N 37.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 9.9N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 10.2N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 10.5N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 10.9N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 12.1N 57.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 13.2N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 14.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Remnants Of Kirk Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

Analysis of the directional ambiguities from a recent ASCAT
scatterometer overpass indicated that the system lacks the closed
circulation that is a prerequisite for tropical cyclone status.
Therefore, advisories are being discontinued at this time. The
ASCAT data showed that the system is now a sharp trough accompanied
by an area of gale-force winds that will be handled in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The remnants of
Kirk will be monitored during the next few days in case regeneration
into a tropical cyclone should occur.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 10.0N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018

...KIRK REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 52.7W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Lucia.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or
watches could be issued later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 52.7 West. Kirk is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday night. On the
forecast track, Kirk is expected to approach Barbados and the
northern Windward Islands Thursday afternoon and move into the
eastern Caribbean Sea by Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast until Kirk moves through the
central Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and evening. Rapid
weakening is expected on Friday after Kirk emerges over the
Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area by Thursday afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall totals of
4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 10 across the northern Windward
and southern Leeward Islands from Barbados and St. Lucia northward
across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. These rains may
produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018
0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2018

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIRK AS ADDITIONAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 52.7W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 52.7W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 51.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.4N 55.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.2N 57.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.1N 60.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.8N 62.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.7N 67.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 15.9N 71.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 16.0N 76.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 52.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z


TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018

Infrared satellite imagery during the past several hours indicates
that deep convection has increased and become better organized near
the center of the remnants of Kirk. In addition, two earlier ASCAT
scatterometer passes between 0000-0100Z indicated that the low-level
center had become a little better defined, and that the inner-core
wind field had contracted, now with a radius of maximum winds (RMW)
of about 40 nmi. Given the continued increase in the amount and
organization of the deep convection, advisories have be re-initiated
on Tropical Storm Kirk. The two ASCAT passes showed peak winds of 38
and 44 kt, so the initial intensity will be a blend of these two
values or 40 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
be investigating Kirk later this morning to provide more detailed
information on the location and intensity of the tropical storm.

The initial motion estimates is an uncertain 280/16 kt, due to the
lack of a well-defined center to track for the past two days. The
global and regional models, excluding the HWRF model, are in very
good agreement on Kirk moving between west and west-northwest for
the next 72 hours along the south side of a strong Bermuda-Azores
high pressure system anchored across most of the subtropical
Atlantic. After that time, strong shear is forecast to weaken Kirk
into a remnant low, resulting in a more westward motion as the
shallow cyclone will be steered by the low-level easterly trade wind
flow. The official forecast track closely follows the HCCA
corrected-consensus model, and is a little south of the simple
consensus model TVCA due to an apparent northward bias in the HWRF
member.

The current modest west to southwesterly vertical wind shear is
forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt during the next 24 hours,
which should allow for some slight strengthening to occur. After 48
hours when Kirk is forecast to emerge over the eastern Caribbean
Sea, the shear is expected to increase to more then 30 kt, which
should act to displace the deep convection to the east of the
low-level center, resulting in rapid weakening. Kirk is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low pressure system after 72 hours, but
this could occur a little sooner than indicated in the official
forecast if Kirk moves farther north and into even stronger shear
conditions. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of
the HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 11.8N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 12.4N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 13.2N 57.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 14.1N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 14.8N 62.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 15.7N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 15.9N 71.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z 16.0N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 54.3W
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018

Kirk is maintaining a CDO of strong convection over its center, but
banding features are limited. Observations from an Air Force
Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft along with scatterometer
data indicate that the storm has strengthened a little and the
maximum winds are now near 45 kt. The SHIPS model output shows a
large increase in westerly shear over Kirk within 18-24 hours.
Therefore not much additional strengthening is likely, and a
weakening trend should commence in a day or so. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the latest model consensus.
Strong westerly shear is likely to continue to adversely affect Kirk
while it moves over the Caribbean, and the system should weaken into
a depression within 72 hours or sooner, and become a remnant low
later in the forecast period.

The motion is a little north of due west, or 280/16 kt. The
steering pattern for Kirk is rather straightforward. A
subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern North Atlantic
is expected to persist and retrograde slightly westward over the
forecast period. The flow on the southern side of the high should
steer Kirk on a westward to west-northwestward track for the next
several days. The official track forecast is close to the
corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA, and is very similar to
the previous NHC track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 12.1N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 12.7N 56.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 13.7N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 14.5N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 15.2N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 16.0N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 16.0N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z 16.0N 76.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
200 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018

...KIRK STRENGTHENS SOME MORE BUT LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN
STRENGTH EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 55.0W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or
watches could be issued later today.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018

...KIRK EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 55.7W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or
watches could be issued tonight.


Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018

The storm's cloud pattern now has a more comma-shaped appearance,
with the estimated center near the western edge of the comma head.
Some low-cloud lines are becoming exposed over the western portion
of the circulation, which is suggestive of some increase in
vertical shear. Based on flight-level and uncontaminated SFMR winds
from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission a few hours ago, the
intensity is kept at 50 kt for this advisory. The dynamical
guidance is in good agreement that the shear will increase
significantly in 18 to 24 hours, and a weakening trend is likely to
commence around that time. The system is predicted to dissipate
due to the strong shear over the Caribbean Sea in about 5 days, and
several of the reliable global models show this occurring even
sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest
multi-model consensus, IVCN, which has been a good performer in the
Atlantic basin so far this year.

Kirk is moving west-northwestward, or 285/16 kt. A pronounced
mid-level ridge over the southwestern North Atlantic and Florida
should continue to steer Kirk on a west-northwestward to westward
heading through the forecast period. Based on the latest track
model guidance, the official forecast is somewhat faster than the
previous one and now takes Kirk over the Lesser Antilles in about
24 hours. On this basis, the arrival of tropical-storm-force winds
in the warning area is a few hours earlier than implied by the
previous advisory. For specific timing information, please consult
the latest arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds graphic on the
National Hurricane Center website.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 12.7N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 13.5N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 14.4N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 15.1N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 15.7N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 16.3N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 15.7N 74.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
800 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KIRK...
...FINDS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 56.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[cycloneye]

CZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KIRK A LITTLE WEAKER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 57.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES



Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018

Strengthening vertical shear is beginning to take its toll on Kirk,
with the low-level center displaced to the west of the deep
convection. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found
that the central pressure has risen to 1002 mb, with maximum 850 mb
flight-level winds of 56 kt and believable SFMR winds as high as 44
kt. Based on these wind data, Kirk's initial intensity is lowered
to 45 kt. Vertical shear is forecast to increase further, reaching
over 30 kt in about 24 hours, which should cause Kirk to continue
weakening over the next day or two. And, based on the latest global
model guidance, the cyclone could open up into a trough any time
after passing by the Lesser Antilles. The new NHC intensity
forecast is mainly an update of the previous one to account for the
lower initial intensity, and it continues to closely follow the
intensity consensus, IVCN, and the HCCA guidance. Dissipation is
now shown by day 4, but as mentioned above, this could occur a lot
sooner.

Kirk appears to have slowed down just a little, with an initial
motion toward the west-northwest, or 285/14 kt. Ridging to the
north should maintain Kirk on this general trajectory, with perhaps
just a slight deceleration as it moves into the eastern Caribbean
Sea. There are some speed differences among the models, with the
ECMWF showing a weaker and faster system, while the GFS shows a
slightly stronger and slower system. The NHC track forecast is
between these two solutions and is closest to the HCCA model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 13.0N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 13.6N 58.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 14.4N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 15.1N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 15.6N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 16.0N 69.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

...KIRK NEARING THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 58.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

Kirk has not changed much overnight. Although the storm is
producing a large area of deep convection, the cloud pattern is not
very well organized with the center located near the southwestern
edge of the thunderstorms. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to
about 20 kt of southwesterly shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters
passed through the northeastern quadrant of Kirk a few hours ago and
found winds to support the same intensity of 45 kt. In addition,
quality control of a ship report that came in around the same time
also supports that intensity. Another Air Force plane is scheduled
to investigate Kirk later this morning.

A large fetch of strong upper-level westerly or southwesterly winds
are over the entire Caribbean Sea, and Kirk will be moving into
these conditions during the next few days. These very hostile winds
aloft should cause Kirk to steadily weaken, decouple, and ultimately
dissipate in 3 or 4 days. The GFS and ECMWF models suggest that
dissipation could occur even sooner. The intensity models are in
good agreement, and the NHC forecast is the same as the previous
one.

Center fixes from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that Kirk is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. A continued
west-northwest motion but at a slower pace is expected during the
next few days as Kirk moves on the south side of a low- to mid-level
ridge. The latest models have not changed much, and the NHC track
forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This
forecast takes Kirk across the Lesser Antilles later today as a
tropical storm.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 13.5N 58.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 14.2N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 14.9N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 15.6N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 16.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 16.3N 71.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

...KIRK NEARING THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 59.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES



Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

Increasing vertical shear is having a notable influence on the
structure of Kirk, as visible satellite imagery shows that the
low-level center of the cyclone is now exposed to the west of the
main area of deep convection. Nonetheless, the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters still found strong winds in that convection. In fact, based
on SFMR and flight-level winds from the Hurricane Hunters, the
advisory intensity of 45 kt may be a conservative estimate. With
the increasing vertical decoupling of the vortex and even stronger
shear associated with upper-level westerlies over the Caribbean
Sea, weakening is likely over the next couple of days. Kirk should
degenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days, if not sooner. The
official forecast is close to the multi-model intensity consensus,
IVCN.

The storm continues moving west-northwestward, with a current
motion estimate of 285/13 kt. A mid-level high pressure area just
to the east of Florida is likely to steer Kirk on a
west-northwestward to westward course for the next few days. Some
further slowing of forward speed is expected as the high weakens
slightly. The NHC track forecast is very close to the latest HFIP
corrected consensus prediction.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should bear in mind that, although
Kirk is becoming disorganized, strong winds are still occurring
over the eastern portion of the circulation. These winds are still
likely to spread westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm
Warning area later today. Higher winds are especially likely over
elevated terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 13.8N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 14.3N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 14.9N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 15.5N 65.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 15.9N 67.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 16.0N 72.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 60.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES



Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

Kirk remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the exposed low-level
center located to the west of the main convective mass. There has
been some redevelopment of deep convection just northeast of the
center this afternoon, but much of the convection is located well
east and southeast of the center. Despite the satellite
presentation, the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating
Kirk through early this afternoon continued to find winds to
support an initial intensity of 45 kt. Another reconnaissance
aircraft mission is scheduled to fly into the storm late this
afternoon and evening.

The strong westerly shear that is currently affecting the tropical
cyclone is forecast to increase over the next day or so, and Kirk
is expected to weaken as the low- and mid-level centers decouple
even further. Kirk is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression
within 36 hours, and is likely to become an open trough in 2 to 3
days when the system reaches the central Caribbean Sea. The NHC
intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various intensity
aids, and the global models which show weakening and dissipation of
the system within 72 hours.

Kirk is moving west-northwestward or 290 degrees at 12 kt. A low-
to mid-level ridge located over the southwestern Atlantic is
expected to steer Kirk west-northwestward to westward during the
next couple of days. The updated NHC track forecast is near the
middle of the tightly clustered guidance, and is essentially an
update of the previous advisory.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should bear in mind that, although
Kirk has become less organized over the past 24 hours, heavy
rainfall and winds are still occurring over the eastern portion of
the circulation. These winds and rains are still likely to spread
westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm Warning area later
this evening through early Friday. Higher winds are especially
likely over elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 14.2N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 14.6N 62.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 15.3N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 15.8N 66.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 16.1N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

Satellite images, radar data, aircraft data, and surface
observations all indicate that Kirk's center made landfall on St.
Lucia around 0030 UTC. However, that fact is of minimal consequence
since most of the inclement weather is displaced more than 60 n mi
to the east of the center due to continued 30-40 kt of westerly
shear. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
investigating Kirk, and SFMR winds within the convection to the east
still appear to support an initial intensity of 45 kt.

Since the shear affecting Kirk is not expected to abate during the
next couple of days, the storm's maximum winds are forecast to
gradually decrease, as is shown by all of the intensity guidance.
In fact, the global models continue to insist that Kirk's
circulation will open up into a trough, possibly within 24-36 hours.
To maintain continuity with the previous forecast, the new NHC
intensity forecast continues to show Kirk weakening to a tropical
depression in 36 hours but then shows dissipation by 48 hours.

Kirk's center has been moving south of due west during the past
6-12 hours, possibly due to some interaction with the mountains of
St. Lucia, and the initial motion estimate is 260/10 kt. Once the
center moves farther from the island, however, it is expected to
resume a west-northwestward motion and increase in speed a bit as
it comes under the influence of stronger ridging to its north. The
NHC official forecast follows the general trend shown by the track
guidance, and at least speed-wise, it is very close to the previous
forecast and the HCCA model. However, given the recent motion of
the center, the new forecast is nudged southward and lies south of
the most reliable track models and consensus aids.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to bear in mind
that, although Kirk has become less organized over the past 24
hours, heavy rainfall and winds are still occurring over the eastern
portion of the circulation. These winds and rains are still likely
to spread westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm Warning
area through early Friday. Higher winds are especially likely over
elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 13.8N 61.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 14.3N 63.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 14.9N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 15.3N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

Kirk is a highly sheared cyclone with most of the associated
weather well east of the center. Despite the lack of organization of
the cloud pattern, a reconnaissance plane a few hours ago, reported
winds to support an initial intensity of 45 kt. Another plane will
be investigating Kirk early this morning and will determine how much
the cyclone has weakened. The upper-level winds are highly
unfavorable across the entire Caribbean basin, and the most likely
scenario is for Kirk to open up into a trough sooner rather than
later as indicated by most of the global models. The NHC forecast
keeps the cyclone for another 24 hours, but dissipation could occur
much earlier.

Satellite imagery, radar from Martinique, and plane fixes indicate
that Kirk jogged toward the west-southwest earlier. This could be an
indication that the center is becoming less defined, but the bottom
line is that the system as a whole is expected to move westward
about 10 kt since it is embedded within the trade winds. This is the
solution provided by most of the models, which all show a weakening
trough propagating westward across the eastern and central Caribbean
Sea.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to bear in mind
that most of the weather associated with Kirk is displaced to the
east of the center. These winds and rains are still likely to
continue spreading westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm
Warning area for the next several hours. Higher winds are
anticipated especially over elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 13.2N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 13.2N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 14.0N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila