ATL: LESLIE - Models

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cycloneye
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ATL: LESLIE - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:53 pm

Only the model runs here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 1:12 pm

Oh boy,the merry-go round.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#3 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 22, 2018 1:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:Oh boy,the merry-go round.

https://i.imgur.com/zfL5WkX.png

I get dizzy just looking at that
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 1:40 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 3:50 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#6 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Sep 22, 2018 3:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:Wow,those are the GFS ensembles.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1043594113378074625

Did they digitalize a picture of a dude throwing spaghetti at a wall?

Cause that might work...

Yikes
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#7 Postby dizzyfish » Sat Sep 22, 2018 4:37 pm

Did someone say dizzy?

It's my namesake a dizzy fish. LOL

Sorry, I couldn't pass this one up. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#8 Postby meriland29 » Sat Sep 22, 2018 4:42 pm

Image

DO NOT USE THIS MAP TO MAKE DECISIONS!

Go home map, you're drunk lol...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#9 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 22, 2018 4:44 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Wow,those are the GFS ensembles.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1043594113378074625

Did they digitalize a picture of a dude throwing spaghetti at a wall?

Cause that might work...

Yikes


Kinda looks like a Woodstock era hurricane track.... on LSD.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#10 Postby meriland29 » Sat Sep 22, 2018 4:48 pm

All jokes aside, the model runs so far have been pretty consistent that it will be pulled up north eventually.. so probably not a landfall threat (?) (I say that with a bold question mark only cause the absolute complexity of the system and if that at all matters when the trough/ridge is much more predictable and telling of where it will go. )
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#11 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:51 pm

The 12Z Euro actually threatens Bermuda with Leslie and directly affects them with the weaker left side as it passes only 200 or so miles ENE of them on 10/5 as she recurves and then moves N fwiw.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#12 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:36 pm

And now for something even crazier, 1 of the 51 12Z EPS Leslie members skirts NC 10/7 and then goes up Cheasapeake Bay as a H 10/8!! A different member hits Cape Cod and Maine 10/7! Huge outliers though.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#13 Postby storm4u » Wed Sep 26, 2018 5:01 pm

LarryWx wrote:And now for something even crazier, 1 of the 51 12Z EPS Leslie members skirts NC 10/7 and then goes up Cheasapeake Bay as a H 10/8!! A different member hits Cape Cod and Maine 10/7! Huge outliers though.


About 5 members headed to New England
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#14 Postby storm4u » Wed Sep 26, 2018 5:03 pm

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#15 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:51 am

Most models are now taking this down to due west of Bermuda, and then have it doing a 180 and go back out to sea.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#16 Postby NFLnut » Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:29 pm

Any links to spaghetti models?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#17 Postby Buck » Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:02 pm

What are the models saying about Leslie sticking around past 5-7 days?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#18 Postby Kazmit » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:51 am

12z GFS has this hitting Portugal as a borderline hurricane a week from now.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#19 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:01 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/13L_gefs_18z.png - here is a link to the model run showing a landfall anywhere from Western Sahara to Portugal. Several runs suggest a recurve to the northwest, which suggests another storm might form and influence Leslie. It will depend how strong Leslie gets in a few days, but this storm has been tenacious so far.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#20 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:04 pm

Image

Image

Does the OP GFS not understand the concept of water temperatures? :lol:
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