ATL: LESLIE - Models

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KWT
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#21 Postby KWT » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:59 pm

It's going to have gone extra tropical by the time it reaches that part of the Atlantic. it's pretty common for that happened this time of year and the Atlantic systems can get surprisingly strong when this happens

The bigger issue with this gfs run is the fact that it has it so far east so quickly. compare where has it in 132 hours with the NHS forecast position at 120 hours, they are leagues apart, it's so rapid!

P.s., if you want to see something really funky take a look at the 12 Z ecm run. It has Leslie heading-back westwards around 25n into the central Atlantic!
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#22 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:22 pm

If the EC and GFS solutions pan out, Leslie would definitely be the craziest system on record in NATL. Transition from ex-tropical to sub-tropical and back to ex-tropical again then becomes a tropical hurricane while looping around in the middle of nowhere . Finally it tracks SW to make landfall on Africa/Portugal or dip into MDR and do a classic Cape Verde track...
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#23 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:58 pm

12z ECMWF continues to show an absolutely insane path for Leslie. Treks west across the entire Atlantic (although would certainly recurve) after nearly hitting Europe.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#24 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:08 pm

Both EC and GFS have similar solutions by now, with the GFS a little further east not turning west until Madeira.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#25 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:09 pm

I was looking at the models. The crazy thing is Leslie or what's left of Leslie is near Africa while the remnant of hurricane michael is north of it and going east lol
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#26 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:28 pm

18z GFS has a mid-TS landfall on Morocco
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#27 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:37 pm

Latest GFS going the way of the earlier Euro and takes Leslie back towards the west as a strengthening system after 120 hours.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#28 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:45 pm

Hammy wrote:Latest GFS going the way of the earlier Euro and takes Leslie back towards the west as a strengthening system after 120 hours.

Wouldn’t it be crazy if this made it all the way back to the US, only one hurricane has pulled that off and it was Ginger 1971, could that be an analog
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#29 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:51 pm

This would make Ginger looks like a high school basketball team going up against the lakers.

This would be nuts

Image
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#30 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:04 am

Euro and GFS have completely swapped places :eek:
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#31 Postby plasticup » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:29 pm

With so little direct measurement that far out to sea the models don't have much data to initialize with. Thus the massive spread. Still fun for dream-casting though.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#32 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:33 pm

Euro starting to hint at moving Leslie back west. My desired track is a turn back west and then obliterated by a front, keeping Leslie alive a few more days. Hard to say exactly what will happen at this point.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#33 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:49 pm

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#34 Postby Cerlin » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:44 pm

After Michael, I don’t know how much I trust shear...
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