EPAC: SERGIO - Remnants

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cycloneye
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EPAC: SERGIO - Remnants

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 27, 2018 1:59 pm

EP, 96, 2018092706, , BEST, 0, 106N, 958W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS037, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 037,
EP, 96, 2018092712, , BEST, 0, 107N, 964W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS037, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 037,
EP, 96, 2018092718, , BEST, 0, 108N, 969W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 037, SPAWNINVEST, ep722018 to ep962018,


This one may also go to Baja.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:46 pm

An area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to gradually become better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical cyclone is expected to form over the weekend while it
moves west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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EPAC: 96E - Recon

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:06 pm

THE NOAA 42 P-3 WILL FLY AN 8-HR RESEARCH MISSION
TOMORROW FOR A DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE EAST PACIFIC
DEPARTING FROM MRLB AT 28/1300Z.
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Re: EPAC: 96E - Recon

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:29 am

The P-3 flying.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#5 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:08 pm

Boy is the SWUSA going to be drenched over the next two weeks.
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Re: EPAC: 96E - Recon

#6 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:51 pm

Interesting recon research flights into 96E, I wonder if this information will be entered into weather models for better future cyclogenis forecastings?

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#7 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:54 pm

It would be interesting if we get recon into 96E (Sergio). It's getting headway a little lower latitude than Rosa. Cat 5 candidate?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:26 pm

Ntxw wrote:It would be interesting if we get recon into 96E (Sergio). It's getting headway a little lower latitude than Rosa. Cat 5 candidate?



NOAA P-3 was out there today.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:28 pm

100%/100%

Satellite and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data indicate that an area
of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico, is producing tropical-storm-force winds. However, the data
also show that the system does not have a well-defined center.
Environmental conditions are very conducive for further development,
and the low is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday while
it moves west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#10 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:24 pm

What if this gets to be named Sergio? (my given name) And peaks at C5 on by birthday? (Oct 1st)

That would be fascinating.
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#11 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:23 pm

Ntxw wrote:It would be interesting if we get recon into 96E (Sergio). It's getting headway a little lower latitude than Rosa. Cat 5 candidate?

It's been tough to get Cat.5s in this part of the eastern Pacific. Let's see if Sergio can break the spell.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:40 am

Satellite imagery indicates that thunderstorm activity associated
with the area of low pressure a few hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico, has become more concentrated during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are forecast to remain conducive for
development over the next several days, and the low could become a
tropical depression or storm later today while it moves
west-northwestward well offshore the coast of south-central Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#13 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:26 am

Latest TWO sounds like winds are down to 30 knots.

Edit: Nevermind, the NHC just issued a statement that Sergio has formed.

Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Storm Sergio has formed well south of Mexico. A special advisory will be issued by 1600 UTC.
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:39 am

Tropical Storm Sergio Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
1030 AM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low
pressure area south-southwest of Acapulco has continued to become
better organized, with the low-level center embedded under the
convective overcast and near a developing complex of bands in the
southeastern semicircle. Based on this and continuity from earlier
scatterometer data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Storm Sergio with 35 kt winds.

Sergio is expected to be in an environment of light vertical shear
and high humidity, and over warm sea surface temperatures for the
next 3 days or so, which should result in steady strengthening. Near
the end of the forecast period, the storm may encounter increasing
northeasterly shear which could limit intensification. The intensity
forecast, which is near the intensity consensus, calls for steady
strengthening through 96 h, with Sergio becoming a hurricane by 48
h.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/11. Sergio should
be steered generally westward for the next three days or so by the
subtropical ridge over Mexico. After that time, the cyclone should
approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a large mid- to
upper-level trough over California, and this should lead to a turn
toward the northwest. The track guidance is in good agreement
with this scenario, and the forecast track lies near the HCCA
corrected consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1530Z 12.4N 102.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 12.7N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 12.9N 105.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 12.9N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 12.8N 109.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 13.0N 113.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby Abdullah » Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:04 am

Sorry if I'm being overzealous, but... Maybe this will Patricia?

Kingarabian wrote:Boy is the SWUSA going to be drenched over the next two weeks.

You know, that's a good thing.
Image
Everything West of that line needs rain.

Every. Single. Part. Of. Utah. New Mexico. and Arizona. need rain.
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#16 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:24 am

If it follows the middle of the cone, it's going to cross where Rosa stalled, about five or six days out. Would bet those waters will still be rather upwelled.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:02 pm

Abdullah wrote:Sorry if I'm being overzealous, but... Maybe this will Patricia?

Kingarabian wrote:Boy is the SWUSA going to be drenched over the next two weeks.

You know, that's a good thing.
http://i63.tinypic.com/wlrrcn.png
Everything West of that line needs rain.

Every. Single. Part. Of. Utah. New Mexico. and Arizona. need rain.


No way this thing even nears Patricia, it's going through waters that have been upwelled by Rosa, and even before then they could barely support a low end cat 5. Patricia really was the perfect storm of favorable conditions, and we just aren't seeing anything on that level ahead of Sergio.
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:05 pm

GFS indicating a track similar to Rosa, into northern Baja then into AZ. Could well happen. Kong-rey in West Pac may follow almost the same path as Trami.
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby Ntxw » Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:42 pm

On its way to being the 8th (or 9th if Walaka beats it) major of the EPAC+CPAC season.

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby bob rulz » Sat Sep 29, 2018 5:13 pm

wxman57 wrote:GFS indicating a track similar to Rosa, into northern Baja then into AZ. Could well happen. Kong-rey in West Pac may follow almost the same path as Trami.


A double-whammy of tropical moisture for the southwestern U.S.? Yes please.
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