EPAC: SERGIO - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 29, 2018 7:27 pm

Likely to be a very long lived hurricane. ECMWF keeps this around through day 10 as a robust hurricane. ACE record in serious jeopardy. This season is flat out incredible.
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Sep 29, 2018 7:41 pm

NHC noted on last advisory that the wind field was weirdly arranged and probably only gradual intensification was likely the next couple of days but this seems to be getting more quickly organized than expected. Very favorable environment for significant intensification for the next few days.

Only a couple of other times have we gotten to the S named storm before the end of September. I thought 14-15 were insane in the Epac, but clearly the cluster of ridiculous years only took a temporary break.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:07 pm

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Satellite images indicate that Sergio has become better organized
during the past several hours with more concentrated convection near
the center. Intensity estimates are slightly higher than the past
advisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt, closest to the
CIMSS SATCON. The storm should be in a low-shear, warm-water, and
high-moisture environment for the next 2 or 3 days. While there
are no signs of an inner core forming yet, that usually doesn't
stop steady intensification, and rapid strengthening is a distinct
possibility in a day or two. Thus the intensity forecast is raised
from the previous one and is close to the consensus. Although
there are a number of reliable models showing a higher peak
intensity, an uncertain environment at long range leads me to a more
conservative forecast. It would not be surprising at all if my
prediction ended up being too low, given the intense nature of this
eastern Pacific hurricane season.


The initial motion is close to the prevous one, 275/9. Sergio
should be steered generally westward for the next two or three days
by the subtropical ridge over Mexico. After that time, the cyclone
is forecast to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a large
mid- to upper-level trough over California, and this should lead to
a turn toward the northwest. Similar to the previous advisory, the
track guidance has shifted slightly south and west, so the official
forecast is nudged in that direction at most time periods.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 12.3N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 12.4N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 12.3N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 12.0N 109.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 11.8N 111.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 12.9N 114.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 15.0N 117.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby Ntxw » Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:25 pm

EquusStorm wrote:NHC noted on last advisory that the wind field was weirdly arranged and probably only gradual intensification was likely the next couple of days but this seems to be getting more quickly organized than expected. Very favorable environment for significant intensification for the next few days.

Only a couple of other times have we gotten to the S named storm before the end of September. I thought 14-15 were insane in the Epac, but clearly the cluster of ridiculous years only took a temporary break.


Really only last year was a subdued season. 14-15-16 and now 18 are all hyperactive or close to hyperactive (16) seasons.

Sergio has a very cold CDO
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby Ntxw » Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:49 pm

Unlike Rosa, Sergio is going to take a southwest dip. This is easily going to be a Cat 4 and I'm going with 130-135kts peak. If there were recon I'd jump the gun for higher. He's going to spend more time over warmer water than Rosa did and like Yellow Evan stated above will be around as a Hurricane for a long while and rack up a lot more ACE than what guidance initially showed some time back. Probably greater than 20-25 units.

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby Chris90 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 4:26 am

Sergio is putting together a tight inner core with some extremely cold convection. I'd say he's probably top 3 for looks as a tropical storm in this basin for this season currently. If he can keep that convection up, I think he's got a shot at getting the dvorak Cat 5 classification. Fingers crossed he does it October 1st if he pulls it off. That way it would give fellow member xtyphooncyclonex a namesake Cat 5 on his birthday, and it would also verify my prediction of an October Cat 5 in this basin :D.
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:23 am

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
400 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018

Microwave and infrared satellite images, along with scatterometer
wind data, indicate that Sergio has continued to become better
organized, with strong convection now more concentrated near the
center. However, scatterometer data showed that the inner-core wind
field is still rather loose and not particularly well-defined quite
yet. The initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on a
Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and
SAB, which is supported by a 0536 UTC ASCAT pass that contained a
few 45-kt vectors east of the center.

The initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. For the next 48
hours or so, Sergio should move generally westward along the
southern periphery of a large, deep-layer subtropical ridge that
extends from Mexico westward across the eastern and central Pacific.
By 72 hours, a broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to drop
southward and southeastward over the southwestern U.S. and the
northeastern Pacific, producing a break in the ridge which will
allow Sergio to move toward the northwest at a slower forward
speed through 120 hours. The new NHC track forecast is similar to
but slightly south of the previous advisory track, and lies close
to an average of the consensus models TVCE, HCCA, and FSSE.

Sergio is forecast to remain in a low-shear, warm-water, and
high-moisture environment for the next 36 hours or so, during which
time rapid intensification is expected. In the 48- to 72-hour
period, the vertical shear is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF global
models to increase from the northeast at around 25 kt, which should
act to cap the strengthening process, and possibly even induce some
weakening. By 96 and 120 hours, the shear is expected to decrease
to 5 kt or less, which would favor re-strengthening. However, due
to the uncertainty in how much Sergio's inner-core wind field will
be disrupted by the aforementioned strong shear, the intensity
forecast is simply leveled off at 95 kt at 72 hours and beyond.
The official intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous
advisory and closely follows the IVCN consensus model, which is
lower than the more robust HCCA and FSSE models, which bring Sergio
to near category 4 strength in 36-48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 12.0N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 12.0N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 11.9N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 11.6N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 11.7N 112.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 13.0N 115.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 15.2N 118.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 17.1N 120.8W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:34 am

Long lived, big ACE, intense, harmless/fish tropical cyclones are my ideal type. I hope this would be it. It's literally my namesake, and it is set to RI on my birthday. Too bad we didn't see Sergio in 2012...
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby zeehag » Sun Sep 30, 2018 2:56 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Long lived, big ACE, intense, harmless/fish tropical cyclones are my ideal type. I hope this would be it. It's literally my namesake, and it is set to RI on my birthday. Too bad we didn't see Sergio in 2012...

happy birthday.

:D
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:52 pm

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018

Satellite imagery over the past several hours as well as microwave
and scatterometer data indicate that the center of Sergio is
farther south than previously analyzed. The deep convection near
the center has become ragged in appearance and elongated from
east-west. However, microwave data continues to show a well-defined
mid-level circulation, and satellite intensity estimates are
unanimously supporting 55 kt, which will be the initial intensity
for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is now 260/11 kt, partially due to
adjustment of the center farther south. Otherwise, there are no
changes in the forecast track philosophy from the previous advisory.
For the next couple of days, Sergio should move generally westward
or just south of due west around the southern periphery of a large
deep-layer subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward
across the eastern Pacific. By 48 hours, a mid- to upper-level
trough moving southeastward along and offshore of the western U.S.
will erode the western part of the ridge. This will allow the
cyclone to turn west-northwestward to northwestward from 48- to
96-hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Very near the end
of the forecast period, the trough should shift eastward and low-
to mid-level ridging should build to the northwest of the cyclone.
This pattern change should induce a more westward turn by 120 hours.

Despite the current ragged appearance of the cyclone, the
environment of low-shear, high-moisture, and warm waters are
expected to support a period of rapid intensification sometime
within the next 36 hours or so. By 36 hours, northeasterly shear is
expected to develop over the storm and increase to 25 kt by 48
hours. This should at least limit the rate of intensification if not
weaken the cyclone slightly from 48- to 72-hours. After that time,
global models indicate that the shear will lessen to under 10 kt for
the remainder of the forecast period. There may be a window of time
beginning after 72 hours where some additional strengthening could
occur. By 96 hours, the system will then be moving over waters of
26-27 C very near a gradient of cooler SSTs just to the north. The
current intensity forecast calls for a steadying of intensity after
the shear abates, then a slow weakening trend commences by the end
of the period due to cooler SSTs. Other than a slight delay in
Sergio becoming a hurricane, the intensity forecast is essentially
the same as the previous forecast and remains close to the
dynamical model consensus. Based on this intensity forecast, Sergio
is still forecast to become a major hurricane on Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 11.5N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 11.4N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 11.2N 110.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 11.4N 112.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 11.9N 114.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 13.8N 117.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 120.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 17.3N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:39 pm

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018

Overall, Sergio has changed little in organization over the past
several hours. The convective pattern is comprised of a ragged
band wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center,
with the strongest convection to the north of the center. Recent
microwave data show that the mid-level circulation center seen
earlier has lost some definition. However, the low-level
circulation center seems to be becoming better defined. The
initial intensity remains 55 kt based on unchanged satellite
intensity estimates.

The initial motion remains 260/11. For the next 36 h or so, Sergio
should move westward or just south of due westward around the
southern periphery of a large deep-layer subtropical ridge extending
from Mexico westward across the eastern Pacific. After that time, a
mid- to upper-level trough moving southeastward along and offshore
of the western U.S. will erode the western part of the ridge. This
development will allow Sergio turn west-northwestward to
northwestward with a gradual decrease in forward speed. The new
forecast track is near the various consensus models and is an
update of the previous track.

Conditions appear favorable for Sergio to rapidly intensify in the
next 36 h if the cyclone can become well enough organized to take
advantage of the environment. This part of the intensity forecast
presumes this will happen and is unchanged from the previous
forecast of quick strengthening. From 36-48 h, a burst of
northeasterly shear is expected to affect Sergio, which should at
least slow intensification. Based on this and the shear letting up
at 72 h, the intensity forecast is tweaked to show the peak
intensity after the shear decreases. After 72 h, decreasing sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause a gradual
weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 11.6N 107.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 11.4N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 11.3N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 11.6N 113.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 14.5N 118.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 16.5N 120.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:41 am

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018

Sergio is almost a hurricane. Satellite images indicate that the
central convection has been increasing in intensity during the past
several hours, but there are still no indications of an eye in
that data. Microwave imagery does show an eye feature, however.
The outer bands are not particularly well organized, and there are
some dry slots beyond the inner core. The initial intensity is held
at 60 kt, following a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, the models have been too
bullish on Sergio strengthening during the past couple of days.
This could be due to the aforementioned dry slots that were not well
predicted by both the statistical and dynamical guidance. Looking
ahead to the next several days, the environmental conditions are
mixed. The wind shear and SSTs appear conducive for strengthening
during the next couple of days, so steady intensification is
predicted during that time period. However, as seen during the past
day or two, dry air could slow the intensification rate. Beyond a
couple of days, the models show a brief increase in shear and a
steady decrease in mid-level moisture and SSTs. These conditions
will likely end the opportunity for strengthening and cause a slow
weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is about the same as
the previous one, and it lies between the usually reliable HCCA and
IVCN consensus models.

Sergio is moving westward at 10 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to
its north and northeast. A continued westward motion is expected
for another day followed by a turn to the west-northwest and then
the northwest as the western side of the ridge weakens due to a
large-scale trough near the southwestern United States. By the end
of the forecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the north of
Sergio, which should cause a turn back to the left. The models are
in very good agreement overall, and little change has been made to
the previous forecast track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 11.5N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 11.4N 111.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 11.7N 113.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 13.3N 116.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 15.3N 119.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 17.0N 121.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 18.0N 124.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:37 pm

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018

Sergio has not strengthened like the models and NHC have predicted
up to this point. Although the storm continues to have a
well-defined curved band over the south and east portions of the
circulation, there are pronounced dry slots that have entrained into
the inner core. Recent microwave images show a well-defined
low-level eye, but the mid-level structure is less organized now as
compared to several hours ago. The initial intensity is again held
at 60 kt, in agreement with an average of the Dvorak classifications
from TAFB and SAB.

The intensity forecast remains challenging. The wind shear around
Sergio is expected to be low for the next several days, besides for
a brief increase in the 24- to 48-hour time period. These
conditions and warm SSTs beneath the cyclone during the next few
days support strengthening. However, as mentioned above, the storm
has been struggling with dry air entrainment and that could continue
to plague the system. The latest models continue to show steady
strengthening, and the NHC forecast does likewise. However, this
forecast shows a slower rate of intensification in the short term.
Beyond a few days, a combination of slightly lower SSTs and a
decrease in moisture should cause a slow weakening trend. The NHC
intensity forecast is in best agreement with the IVCN model.

Sergio is moving just south of due west at 11 kt. A westward
motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next
day or so while the storm remains on the south side of a mid-level
ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is expected by late Tuesday
followed by a northwestward motion on Wednesday as the western
portion of the mid-level ridge erodes due to a large scale mid- to
upper-level trough near the southwestern U.S. By the end of the
forecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the north of
Sergio, which should cause a turn back to the left. The models
have shifted to the south and west this cycle, and the NHC track
forecast has been adjusted in those directions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 11.3N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 11.3N 112.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 11.6N 114.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 12.4N 116.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 15.4N 120.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 17.0N 123.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 17.8N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:41 pm

Kingarabian,has Sergio been below expectations? It was supposed to be a Hurricane right now.
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:43 pm

I'm kinda starting to get a John/Fabio vibe with this, as it seems to be following in those two storms' footsteps of defying forecasts and not intensifying.
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian,has Sergio been below expectations? It was supposed to be a Hurricane right now.


It should've been a solid hurricane by now. Eventually it should be a strong hurricane. Also due to it being weaker than what was previously modeled, this will likely continue to make the forecast shift west and give it more time over warmer waters and eventually more ACE.
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:54 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:I'm kinda starting to get a John/Fabio vibe with this, as it seems to be following in those two storms' footsteps of defying forecasts and not intensifying.


It'll likely be moving more west compared to the NW tracks that John and Fabio had, so there remains a good window for development.
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:39 pm

I'm sort of not surprised he's been a bit slow to get together. Storms that move southwest this season tends to feel northeasterly shear, or in general have that sheared look on their northern side. Once he goes poleward I expect we see some significant strengthening which may not come until Wednesday. Still plenty of warm water ahead, unlike Fabio and John which ran out of time.

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:44 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:I'm kinda starting to get a John/Fabio vibe with this, as it seems to be following in those two storms' footsteps of defying forecasts and not intensifying.


Of course Olivia appeared that way for a while as well and then it blew it up.
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby Chris90 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:10 pm

He's starting to look better again. Firing off some really deep convection and trying to round out the CDO. Of course, he looked really good the other morning too, then went into a bit of a decline again. Will have to see if this trend can hold. Maybe it is the start of rapid intensification for him finally.
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