EPAC: SERGIO - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#41 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:51 pm

Finnally is a Hurricane.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...SERGIO BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 112.0W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018

A just-received GMI overpass indicates that Sergio has become better
organized with formation of a well-defined eye and eyewall under a
convective overcast with cloud tops to -85C. Satellite intensity
estimates are in the 55-65 kt range, and based on the improved
structure, the intensity will be set at the upper end of that range.
Thus, Sergio is upgraded to a hurricane.

The intensity forecast is low confidence. The better structure of
Sergio is now conducive for rapid intensification. However, the
large-scale models forecast northeasterly vertical shear to increase
to 20-25 kt by 24 h, which should be strong enough to stop rapid
development, although the guidance suggests at least slow
strengthening during this time. The intensity forecast follows the
guidance trend in calling for gradual strengthening, but there could
be a 12-h or so burst of rapid intensification before the shear gets
too strong. The shear should subside after about 36 h while Sergio
is still over warm water, and the forecast shows the system becoming
a major hurricane near the 72 h point in response to the more
favorable conditions. After 72 h, a combination of decreasing
sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track and entrainment of
drier air should lead to gradual weakening.

The initial motion is 265/12. As stated in the previous discussion,
a westward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during
the next day or so while the storm remains on the south side of a
mid-level ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast by late
Tuesday, followed by a northwestward motion on Wednesday as the
western portion of the mid-level ridge erodes due to a large scale
mid- to upper-level trough near the southwestern United States. By
the end of the forecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the
north of Sergio, which should cause a turn back toward the west. The
track guidance has changed little since the last advisory, and the
new NHC track is close to both the previous forecast track and the
consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 10.9N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 11.2N 113.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 11.7N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 12.6N 117.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 13.7N 118.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 16.0N 121.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 17.0N 124.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#42 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:37 pm

He's got the flare up for it. Lets see if he can wrap it around.

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#43 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:50 am

It's go time.

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#44 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:27 am

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018

Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that Sergio continues to
strengthen. The center is located within a fairly symmetric CDO
with cloud tops of -70 to -80 degrees C. Earlier microwave data
showed a well-defined eye and inner core, but a more recent AMSU
overpass suggests that there has been some slight erosion of the
eastern portion of the eye, possibly due to some intrusion of dry
mid-level air. Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 75 to 90 kt,
and the initial intensity has been increased to a possibility
conservative 75 kt for this advisory.

The intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain. Although
Sergio has developed an inner core and strengthened during the past
12 hour or so, the dynamical models suggest northeasterly shear
will increase over the hurricane today. This is expected to temper
the intensification somewhat over the next 12-24 hours, however,
most of the guidance shows at least gradual strengthening during
the next day or so. The NHC intensity forecast calls for a gradual
increase in wind speed over the next 36-48 hours, and is close to
the IVCN model consensus. After 72 h, cooler waters and the
entrainment of drier air is expected to cause gradual weakening.

Sergio is moving slightly south of due west or 265/12 kt. The
hurricane is currently located to the south of a mid-level ridge,
and Sergio should continue westward today. The global models show
the western portion of the ridge weakening over the next several
days, which should cause Sergio to turn west-northwestward, then
northwestward on Wednesday. By late in the week, another ridge
is predicted to build to the northwest of Sergio and the hurricane
is forecast to turn back toward the west. The overall guidance
envelope has changed little this cycle, and the new NHC track is
similar to the previous advisory and close to the various consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 10.7N 113.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 10.9N 114.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 11.7N 116.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 12.7N 117.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 13.8N 119.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 15.6N 121.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 16.5N 124.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 16.7N 127.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#45 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:37 am

Could Sergio join the Pacific wide Cat 5 party in the next 1 to 3 days?
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#46 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:16 am

Here comes the eye. Easily will be the 9th major and 9th Cat 4 for the EPAC. He will have to keep those cloud tops very cold for a 5 given the conservative nature of the agencies these days.

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#47 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:55 am

A few days delayed, but definitely looks like RI may have begun if the dry air is mixed out enough
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#48 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:00 am

Once ADT hits the new eye 6.5 is my RAW T guess soon.
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#49 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:38 am

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018

The cloud pattern of Sergio continues to become better organized on
satellite imagery. The hurricane has a very cold cloud-topped
central dense overcast, with a developing eye, surrounded by curved
banding features. The current intensity is set at 85 kt based on a
blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Sergio is
forecast to continue moving over warm waters, under moderate
vertical shear and within a moist mid-level airmass for the next
few days. Therefore, additional strengthening is likely, and Sergio
will probably become a major hurricane in a day or so. The official
intensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus, IVCN.

The hurricane has been moving westward at a slightly slower pace,
and the motion estimate is 270/11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the system will soon be eroding, due to a trough dropping
in from the northwest. This change in steering currents should
result in Sergio turning toward the west-northwest today followed
by a northwestward motion in 2-3 days. In the latter part of the
forecast period, the ridge builds back in, and this is likely to
cause the tropical cyclone to turn back toward the west. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the
dynamical model consensus, TVCN, fairly closely.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 10.6N 114.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 11.2N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 12.2N 116.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 13.3N 118.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 14.3N 119.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 15.9N 122.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#50 Postby Highteeld » Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:22 am

21E
HURRICANE 21E 12:00UTC 02October2018
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from NHC) :
Latitude : 10:43:32 N
Longitude : 113:44:40 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 980.3 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 903.8 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 76.5 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 7.9 m/s (15.3 kts)
Direction : 62.6 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
N F F F

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.0 -6.0 - -2.0 -9.0 - -3.0 -12.0 - -4.0
N -1.0 - +1.0 -2.0 - +2.0 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.0 - +4.0
U +1.0 - +3.0 +2.0 - +6.0 +3.0 - +9.0 +4.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0


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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#51 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:02 pm

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#52 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:39 pm

Raw T# jumped to 6.6 as the eye became more evident. Definitely wouldn't be shocked to see it pass forecast intensity at peak.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#53 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:43 pm

Is a major according to SAB.

02/1800 UTC 11.1N 114.6W T5.5/5.5 SERGIO -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#54 Postby TorSkk » Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:30 pm

Up to 100 knots

21E SERGIO 181002 1800 11.1N 114.6W EPAC 100 965
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#55 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:33 pm

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#56 Postby gfsperpendicular » Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:43 pm

NHC UPDATE was issued at 1845Z to make Sergio a major:

Code: Select all

285
WTPZ61 KNHC 021845
TCUEP1

Hurricane Sergio Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
1145 AM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018

...SERGIO BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Satellite imagery indicates that Sergio is quickly strengthening,
and maximum sustained winds have increased to an estimated 115 mph
(185 km/h), with higher gusts. This increase in intensity will be
reflected in the intensity forecast issued in the 2 PM PDT (2100
UTC) advisory package.


SUMMARY OF 1145 AM PDT...1845 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 114.7W
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#57 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:37 pm

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018

Sergio has intensified significantly today. The eye of the
hurricane has become better defined, and is embedded in very cold
convective cloud tops. Outer banding features are also well
defined. Upper-tropospheric outflow is strong over the western and
southern portions of the circulation, and a little restricted to
the northeast. The advisory intensity is set, probably
conservatively, to 100 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from
SAB. Only modest northeasterly shear is expected to affect Sergio
over the next few days. That, along with warm waters and a very
moist middle troposphere, should be conducive for further
strengthening. The official forecast is near the upper end of the
intensity guidance model suite.

The system continues moving mostly westward, or 280/11 kt. There
is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous
couple of advisory packages. A mid-level ridge to the north of
Sergio should weaken within the next 12 to 24 hours as a broad
trough drops in from the northwest. These changes in the steering
flow should cause the hurricane to turn toward the west-northwest by
this evening or tonight, and to begin moving northwestward on
Wednesday. The official track forecast is is very similar to the
previous one and, again, follows the latest multi-model consensus.

Some slight enlargements to the wind radii were made over the
eastern semicircle of Sergio based on scatterometer data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 11.2N 115.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 12.0N 116.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 13.1N 117.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 14.2N 119.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 16.3N 123.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 16.5N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#58 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:56 pm

Sergio and Walaka both majors interesting
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#59 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:11 pm

How often is it that we have majors active in all three North Pacific basins? Can't be too common.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#60 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:16 pm

Sergio has pumped ~5 units of ACE so far. The NHC 5 day forecast yields an additional ~13 units. Euro has Sergio still around in 10 days.

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