ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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drezee
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4101 Postby drezee » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:55 am

Rustic Sands RV park is ground zero in Mexico beach
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4102 Postby WAcyclone » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:14 am

Best picture of the stadium effect so far. I'm sure there will be many more posted in the coming days.

 https://twitter.com/StormChasingVid/status/1050345343953580032



Image

Here is the link to the full-resolution image: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpOTf2MUYAAyzym.jpg:orig
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4103 Postby psyclone » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:15 am

Not sure why death toll chatter always runs off the rails in the wake of big storms but it does. I suspect there will be some people that should have evacuated that did perish due to surge or extreme wind/falling trees. And we may have some fatalities after the storm during cleanup, fires, electrocutions, carbon monoxide. ..these things happen.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4104 Postby igoldfish » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:16 am

Just watched Brett's horrific live stream. Although I think it's a useful tool in showing how rapidly conditions change to life theatening, I hope the person heard on the phone ( storm chaser coordinator?) is held accountable for sending this team into a Cat4/5 eyewall. Thank God they saved themselves. I refer to Dawg's post of the necessity of a high ground bunker in advance.

Light rain in Ft Myers, maybe the last of Mike's bands in So Florida.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4105 Postby WAcyclone » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:26 am

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4106 Postby Agua » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:44 am

igoldfish wrote: I hope the person heard on the phone ( storm chaser coordinator?) is held accountable for sending this team into a Cat4/5 eyewall.


The guy or the station should have to pay for the truck. This should be exhibit A as to why the professional on the ground should be making the decisions.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4107 Postby yzerfan » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:19 am

FEMA press conference is happening now. Brock Long has the look of a man who hasn't slept for the past 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4108 Postby longhorn2004 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:23 am

Random thoughts-

Question, why is it a hurricane once making landfall shoots off normally across land. This mass of counter clockwise turning inertia energy is a lot of momentum that just takes off, its odd. The Jetstream doesn't seem to have the same effect on hurricanes as it does on land.

My family is in Port St. Joe, grew up going there many times to see grand parents and family. Now I know why my grand dad built his house with cinder bricks. I am looking at a pic of my wife right now that I took a couple of years ago there on the St. Joe marina thats on the facebook video. Very surreal.

https://www.google.com/maps/@29.8158306 ... 312!8i6656

The houses Mr. Adair referred to on the video may look cheap, but Michael is not the first hurricane these houses have seen or will see. Still trying to get a hold of family, hoping they evacuated, but I bet they didn't.

I know Mexico Beach will rebuild, many fun memories going there. Does anyone know how Toucan's fared?
https://www.google.com/maps/@29.9364844 ... 312!8i6656

If one has never driven from Port Joe to Tyndall its hard to explain. As you an you look at the miles and miles of pine trees that were planted by the St. Joe Paper Company, they seem to be planted in straight rows. Have not seen just pics of the forest to near Tyndall to see how they fared.
Last edited by longhorn2004 on Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4109 Postby longhorn2004 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:24 am

WAcyclone wrote:Best picture of the stadium effect so far. I'm sure there will be many more posted in the coming days.

https://twitter.com/StormChasingVid/status/1050345343953580032
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpOTf2MUYAAyzym.jpg

Here is the link to the full-resolution image: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpOTf2MUYAAyzym.jpg:orig


Where is this? Hwy 98?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4110 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:30 am

Good site from weatherflow with surface obs across the SE U.S. Only TS wind I could find in the past hour was in a band of showers near Charleston, SC (on a pier 43 ft up). The report was 42 mph. No evidence of any TS winds inland. Been too busy to read through the thread. Any good links to videos I missed?

http://ds.weatherflow.com/storm/michael#33.884,-75.408,7,8,113055,1
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4111 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:41 am

wxman57 wrote:Good site from weatherflow with surface obs across the SE U.S. Only TS wind I could find in the past hour was in a band of showers near Charleston, SC (on a pier 43 ft up). The report was 42 mph. No evidence of any TS winds inland. Been too busy to read through the thread. Any good links to videos I missed?

http://ds.weatherflow.com/storm/michael#33.884,-75.408,7,8,113055,1


Keep in mind a lot of stations are no longer reporting due to power outages and the wind is transitioning more to a gust threat. Some of the high res models are showing winds gusting anywhere from 60-90mph over NC later today as some baroclinic forcing and dry air help mix down some high wind gusts. KGSP discussion is mentioning this as a distinct possibility and we will find out in a few hours if this is legit. Otherwise the high res models are only showing 40-50mph gusts on the east side of Michael and that appears to be verifying quite well.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4112 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:42 am

It is mind-boggling that just four days prior to landfall this was only forecasted to be a 70mph TS at landfall along the FL Panhandle. Timing for landfall was spot on since advisory one, with a landfall expected just after noon on Wednesday.

This just goes to show you that given ideal (or close to ideal in this case) conditions that you can have a rapidly strengthening hurricane which in this case probably caught many locals off guard given what was being forecasted in the first two advisories. The Gulf of Mexico is bathwater NEVER underestimate its potential, Harvey and now Michael have proven that.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4113 Postby MGC » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:47 am

TheStormExpert wrote:It is mind-boggling that just four days prior to landfall this was only forecasted to be a 70mph TS at landfall along the FL Panhandle. Timing for landfall was spot on since advisory one, with a landfall expected just after noon on Wednesday.

This just goes to show you that given ideal (or close to ideal in this case) conditions that you can have a rapidly strengthening hurricane which in this case probably caught many locals off guard given what was being forecasted in the first two advisories. The Gulf of Mexico is bathwater NEVER underestimate its potential, Harvey and now Michael have proven that.


Yup,initial intensity forecast under estimated Michael's winds. Watching TWC this morning....incredible wind damage. Looks like a huge tornado moved through. Would not be surprised if Michael is upgraded to Cat-5 when all the data is in.....MGC
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4114 Postby jhpigott » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:49 am

wxman57 wrote:Good site from weatherflow with surface obs across the SE U.S. Only TS wind I could find in the past hour was in a band of showers near Charleston, SC (on a pier 43 ft up). The report was 42 mph. No evidence of any TS winds inland. Been too busy to read through the thread. Any good links to videos I missed?

http://ds.weatherflow.com/storm/michael#33.884,-75.408,7,8,113055,1


This is a pretty crazy video

https://mobile.twitter.com/TxStormChase ... 7047369733

Couple quick questions: What kind of windspeed are we looking at in this video?

What are your thoughts about intensity at landfall vs the NHC 155mph landfall call?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4115 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:50 am

MGC wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:It is mind-boggling that just four days prior to landfall this was only forecasted to be a 70mph TS at landfall along the FL Panhandle. Timing for landfall was spot on since advisory one, with a landfall expected just after noon on Wednesday.

This just goes to show you that given ideal (or close to ideal in this case) conditions that you can have a rapidly strengthening hurricane which in this case probably caught many locals off guard given what was being forecasted in the first two advisories. The Gulf of Mexico is bathwater NEVER underestimate its potential, Harvey and now Michael have proven that.


Yup,initial intensity forecast under estimated Michael's winds. Watching TWC this morning....incredible wind damage. Looks like a huge tornado moved through. Would not be surprised if Michael is upgraded to Cat-5 when all the data is in.....MGC

Could be upgraded, but either way the damage is done and would only break more records if upgraded.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4116 Postby brghteys1216 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:55 am

I’m here in Charlotte, NC for work and it’s starting to get pretty windy and some crazy rain.

I feel so bad for those in Florida/Georgia who had to deal with this at its most intense.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4117 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:55 am

Did Michael really put that much of a dent in the TCHP in the Northwest Caribbean?

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4118 Postby pricetag56 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:58 am

WAcyclone wrote:Best picture of the stadium effect so far. I'm sure there will be many more posted in the coming days.

https://twitter.com/StormChasingVid/status/1050345343953580032
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpOTf2MUYAAyzym.jpg

Here is the link to the full-resolution image: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpOTf2MUYAAyzym.jpg:orig

There's something odd about this photo to me, those clouds look incredibly low. It might just be perspective but I thought eyewall clouds extended thousands of feet into the sky like 40 to 50 thousand can someone explain?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4119 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:01 am

txwatcher91 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Good site from weatherflow with surface obs across the SE U.S. Only TS wind I could find in the past hour was in a band of showers near Charleston, SC (on a pier 43 ft up). The report was 42 mph. No evidence of any TS winds inland. Been too busy to read through the thread. Any good links to videos I missed?

http://ds.weatherflow.com/storm/michael#33.884,-75.408,7,8,113055,1


Keep in mind a lot of stations are no longer reporting due to power outages and the wind is transitioning more to a gust threat. Some of the high res models are showing winds gusting anywhere from 60-90mph over NC later today as some baroclinic forcing and dry air help mix down some high wind gusts. KGSP discussion is mentioning this as a distinct possibility and we will find out in a few hours if this is legit. Otherwise the high res models are only showing 40-50mph gusts on the east side of Michael and that appears to be verifying quite well.

Yep, there is a big swath knocked out by Michael.

 https://twitter.com/JoshWeather/status/1050270572696035328


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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4120 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:02 am

I think the LF intensity was pretty close to spot-on. A case could be made for a bump up to minimal 5, but if NHC is like other NOAA agencies they'll prefer to err to the lower bound in the absence of absolutely irrefutable proof (I'm thinking of high-end EF4 vs. EF5 tornadoes). Based on what I've seen so far, the damage is about what I'd expect from a top end 4. Similar to Charley or Maria in PR, not quite as bad as Andrew (although the construction in the places I've seen video of could be superior to that of Homestead in '92 - only seen isolated total structural failures of wood/brick buildings, instead of widespread ones) and noticeably worse than lower end MHs like Irma on Marco Island.
Last edited by SconnieCane on Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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