ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Gyre clearly seen at the 850 to 700mb layer.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5


Looks like the Central-American mountains will be blocking any kind of moisture feed from the EPAC.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5


Yucatan looks like mininal cloud cover overnight.
Could fire off popups this afternoon.
If so, would provide a shot in the arm for some development of 91L tonight.
Keeping an eye on this today if it plays out.

Just enough of a shear axis to keep convection firing as long as there is a decent low-level moisture infeed.
Note the drop in shear in the vicinity of 91L.

[Frank P]

well we all know the margin of error this far out is probably 100 to 150 miles off, if not more... and it never fails these systems always has a surprise or two for us down the road... if you get in the cone or even close to it you have to prepare for a worse case scenario based on expected intensity... per the NHC if I was in the NGOM or even NEGOM I would start my preps this weekend if not already... side note.. I just started emptying my stored gas for my generator in my cars the day before all this came to fruition... pfffftttt… hopefully, and nothing personal my dear friends to the east of me, it stays off to the east of me... my last two hurricane warning both Nate and Gordon stayed east of me just a few miles... and I got basically little or no effects at the beach house in Biloxi... and my preps are so much easier for storms off to the east... yes, it looks like and interesting week ahead..

[shiny-pebble]

Wonder if we'll get a PTC later today

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[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1048541411430359045

[jlauderdal]

Convection getting sheared off a little near sunrise but if there is a clear low level center its nice of the NHC to give the gulf states the weekend to think about final preps.

The moisture envelope dry shear line is beginning to expand north but as WXman57 said, too early to be sure the GFS forecast for a building high over the storm in the north gulf is going to verify.

First run of the HWRF is interesting as it has a somewhat more vigorous system 979 mb storm at 24.5, 86.6 headed further west than the GFS.

death taxes and the hwrf with over intensification

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[GCANE]

Looks like a big anti-cyclone just popped up from that rapid-fire convection at approx 16.5N 87.8W.
Note the sudden shift in the cloud motion SW of the convection.

[gatorcane]

Looks like another case where a strong system will head towards the panhandle/big bend/north gulf coast. Tampa and the west coast of Florida may escape yet another one. The Tampa shield continues to deflect. Think you got to go back to 1921 for a major hit in Tampa which is an incredibly long streak.

[ronjon]

Looks like another case where a strong system will head towards the panhandle or big bend. Tampa and the west coast of Florida may escape yet another one.

Not likely if it moves into Big Bend. Look for storm surge along the west coast from Tampa northward. Hermine caused 4-5 ft surge in the nature coast and it was a minimal CAT 1 hurricane.

[caneman]

Looks like another case where a strong system will head towards the panhandle or big bend. Tampa and the west coast of Florida may escape yet another one.

Not likely if it moves into Big Bend. Look for storm surge along the west coast from Tampa northward. Hermine caused 4-5 ft surge in the nature coast and it was a minimal CAT 1 hurricane.

I don't know about escape. We got whacked pretty good with Irma. Up to 90 mph wind gusts. I was without power for 6 days. Lots of trees and fences down in my area with some roads impassible. I'll be keeping a close eye on it. I've lived on the beaches in Pinellas for a long time and have seen this set up before. In June and Ocrober they like to get shoved this way. Even a big bend landfall will give us pretty good effects. We'll see.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2018100612, , BEST, 0, 173N, 862W, 25, 1007, DB

[p1nheadlarry]

well we all know the margin of error this far out is probably 100 to 150 miles off, if not more... and it never fails these systems always has a surprise or two for us down the road... if you get in the cone or even close to it you have to prepare for a worse case scenario based on expected intensity... per the NHC if I was in the NGOM or even NEGOM I would start my preps this weekend if not already... side note.. I just started emptying my stored gas for my generator in my cars the day before all this came to fruition... pfffftttt… hopefully, and nothing personal my dear friends to the east of me, it stays off to the east of me... my last two hurricane warning both Nate and Gordon stayed east of me just a few miles... and I got basically little or no effects at the beach house in Biloxi... and my preps are so much easier for storms off to the east... yes, it looks like and interesting week ahead..

I worry about the trees in my location more than the flooding, though that is also a concern. And there's few roads in and out of town.

[northjaxpro]

91L definitely is beginning to take shape this morning. It looks like shear is beginning to decrease a little and convection is gradually trying to fire near the suspected low level circulation.

This system is giving me one of these ominous vibes. I hope the folks in the along the Gulf Coast region , especially from Mississippi eastward to the Florida Big Bend, are watching this very closely. Also , we could have quite the week coming up monitoring this developing cyclone.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is looking very much like an Opal (95) track. Hopefully not an Opal intensity like the Hwrf is showing

[toad strangler]

Looks like another case where a strong system will head towards the panhandle/big bend/north gulf coast. Tampa and the west coast of Florida may escape yet another one. The Tampa shield continues to deflect. Think you got to go back to 1921 for a major hit in Tampa which is an incredibly long streak.

It is amazing. Tampa is sitting there like a duck for any Caribbean system. But for some reason they go well N or through S FL. And of course we are talking eyewall here as Tampa haas certainly been affected gy oodles of storms. But that landfall as eluded for almost 100 year now huh? Cray.

[GCANE]

Hmm, a due north track into the GoM with more water time.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1048566928695017473

[wxman57]

Wonder if we'll get a PTC later today

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I was thinking the same thing. With a high chance of development within 48 hours AND land being impacted then (NE Yucatan or west Cuba), it falls within the NHC's criteria for initiating advisories. It's not a hard and fast rule, however. Given the level of uncertainty, I wouldn't be surprised if they hold off on issuing any advisories on this PTC. Wish I had that luxury. My latest track has it inland near Pensacola as a 50kt TS Wednesday evening. However, given the level of shear expected, I wouldn't be surprised if the center reforms/forms farther east and a quite sheared storm moves inland east of Apalachicola. Either way, the FL Peninsula will likely get a good bit of rain, as squalls will extend well east of the track.

[Mouton]

Bastardi has been hawking a storm around the next week or so for sometime. He might be right on this one albeit he was a bit right of the latest "path". Were this storm to ramp up and move smartly to a position near 29N Lat, It would be a problem given the little warning being hawked in the press over the bank holiday weekend.

Meanwhile, there is a dry air over the GOM. A deep storm is diving down over the Sierra's into N. Nev this AM. My sense is it will amplify the front ahead of it as it moves into Ok. which could pull this storm up into the GOM by Tues. This is where things get interesting as the high over the NE seems to be set in stone. Sergio's projected path may be a harbinger for this one, if it forms up. I'd be watchful for an area from Panama City to Naples.

My comments of course are those of an amateur. Pay attention to the pros for safety concerns.

[GCANE]

Obviously, pressure dropping at low levels.
Apparent infeed of TPW from the deep-south Carib.
Central America mountains may not be an issue after all.

[NDG]

It is still very broad this morning, it will need another 24-48 hours to get going until it reaches the Yucatan Channel as UL winds start improving over the SE GOM.

[Ivanhater]

I hate when you type Pensacola..wxman57. Lol. I'm just wondering if we are the good or dirty side