ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4061 Postby jhpigott » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:04 pm

This has to be some of the craziest wind footage captured. Just look at all the debris ripping by. Looks almost tornadic

https://mobile.twitter.com/TxStormChase ... 7047369733
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4062 Postby PSUHiker31 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:14 pm

NDG wrote:I still say that the windshear maps over Michael were way off, they did not matched to the dropsondes, especially the mid level shear which is usually the one that causes the most weakening to a major hurricane. As if Michael created its own environment right near it and ahead of its track.


People have been overly focused on those all year. What a shear analysis says one moment may be completely different 24 hours later. You cannot use those to project conditions a hurricane will experience... And people still don't understand that outflow channels show up as shear on those maps.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4063 Postby drezee » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:15 pm

drezee wrote:Mexico beach Facebook page made me sick. So many people stayed and are missing. Even some in the pictures of whole buildings that are gone. Rustic Palms RV and campground had so many people who stayed in trailers.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 7285115783

The link
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4064 Postby PandaCitrus » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:16 pm

St. George Island - the barrier island in front of Apalachicola had catastrophic surge.

 https://twitter.com/KEYTNC3Alan/status/1050197056294285312


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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4065 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:19 pm

NDG wrote:I still say that the windshear maps over Michael were way off, they did not matched to the dropsondes, especially the mid level shear which is usually the one that causes the most weakening to a major hurricane. As if Michael created its own environment right near it and ahead of its track.


It's odd how sometimes that happens and sometimes it doesn't, and it's darn near impossible to predict which storms will do it. I honestly thought Gordon earlier this year had a good shot at overachieving in this fashion, but couldn't quite pull it off.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4066 Postby sbcc » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:21 pm

drezee wrote:
drezee wrote:Mexico beach Facebook page made me sick. So many people stayed and are missing. Even some in the pictures of whole buildings that are gone. Rustic Palms RV and campground had so many people who stayed in trailers.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 7285115783

The link


Can't get there without a Fakebook account. It's not public. Please post an alternate link. Try uploading it to Streamable. Thanks.
Last edited by sbcc on Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4067 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:24 pm

Sanibel wrote:They are saying the Gulf water temperature was 4-6 degrees above average and that accounted for the unseasonable intensification...


It makes sense. There were no autumn cold fronts coming down to the gulf to cool down the waters. So they were basically like how they are during late summer. The high pressure sitting on the east has been brutal. I live in PA and I've had a week of night low temps around 70 degrees when they should be 46 lol so that really helped to keep waters warm and in turn keep Michael from weakening.
Last edited by TheDreamTraveler on Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4068 Postby sbcc » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:24 pm

PSUHiker31 wrote:
NDG wrote:I still say that the windshear maps over Michael were way off, they did not matched to the dropsondes, especially the mid level shear which is usually the one that causes the most weakening to a major hurricane. As if Michael created its own environment right near it and ahead of its track.


People have been overly focused on those all year. What a shear analysis says one moment may be completely different 24 hours later. You cannot use those to project conditions a hurricane will experience... And people still don't understand that outflow channels show up as shear on those maps.


" And people still don't understand that outflow channels show up as shear on those maps." I learned today that dry air intrusion does not automatically mean weakening, in fact it might happen when the opposite is going on. Now I learn that outflow channels mimic shear. This is why I love this place. Thanks!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4069 Postby Rail Dawg » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:28 pm

What an incredible experience.

Never get tired of chasing these things.

The power of a 175mph gust just a few feet away can hardly be described.

Learned something today. I’ve talked about the “Fists of God” before. Those powerful bursts of rain and wind the size of a house that do the real damage.

But just before they come there is a sound like an F-18 streaking overhead. You can hear it plain as day. When it sounds off count about 10 seconds then all hell breaks loose with the Fists of God.

Lots of catastrophic damage today. Watched several businesses explode once the windows broke and the gusts got inside.

You have to see, hear and feel this stuff to believe it.
Last edited by Rail Dawg on Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4070 Postby sbcc » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:32 pm

Rail Dawg wrote:What an incredible experience.

Never get tired of chasing these things.

The power of a 175mph gust just a few feet away can hardly be described.

Learned something today. I’ve talked about the “Fists of God” before. Those powerful bursts of rain and wind the size of a house that do the real damage.

But just before they come there is a sound like an F-18 streaking overhead. You can hear it plain as day. When it sounds off count about 10 seconds then all hell bteaks loose with the Fists of God.

Lots of catastrophic damage today. Watched several businesses explode once the windows broke and the gusts got inside.

You have to see, hear and feel this stuff to believe it.


Thanks for the update, RailDawg. Glad you are safe and got to experience one of the strongest landfalling storms in the Panhandle for centuries. You got a busy day tomorrow with rescue and recovery, I'm sure. Thanks for checking in. Stay safe and dry.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4071 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:32 pm

Rail Dawg wrote:What an incredible experience.

Never get tired of chasing these things.

The power of a 175mph gust just a few feet away can hardly be described.

Learned something today. I’ve talked about the “Fists of God” before. Those powerful bursts of rain and wind the size of a house that do the real damage.

But just before they come there is a sound like an F-18 streaking overhead. You can hear it plain as day. When it sounds off count about 10 seconds then all hell bteaks loose with the Fists of God.

Lots of catastrophic damage today. Watched several businesses explode once the windows broke and the gusts got inside.

You have to see, hear and feel this stuff to believe it.


How did the more densely populated areas of eastern Panama City fair? Obviously coastal Panama City Beach and Mexico Beach were devastated, but I know Panama City has a pretty high population.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4072 Postby rhwxgeek » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:38 pm

Thank you Rail, what a hauntingly beautiful description of this historical day. Sounds terrifying yet amazing seeing the raw power of nature. Glad you made it safe and sound.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4073 Postby PandaCitrus » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:40 pm

Driving tour of Panama City damage on youtube. Lots of new damage footage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... EtZcQ0ar80
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4074 Postby Rail Dawg » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:43 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:
Rail Dawg wrote:What an incredible experience.

Never get tired of chasing these things.

The power of a 175mph gust just a few feet away can hardly be described.

Learned something today. I’ve talked about the “Fists of God” before. Those powerful bursts of rain and wind the size of a house that do the real damage.

But just before they come there is a sound like an F-18 streaking overhead. You can hear it plain as day. When it sounds off count about 10 seconds then all hell bteaks loose with the Fists of God.

Lots of catastrophic damage today. Watched several businesses explode once the windows broke and the gusts got inside.

You have to see, hear and feel this stuff to believe it.


How did the more densely populated areas of eastern Panama City fair? Obviously coastal Panama City Beach and Mexico Beach were devastated, but I know Panama City has a pretty high population.



The town for many miles took a significant hit. Complete destruction of many homes and businesses.

Because of Fists of God the damage is almost tornadic.

One business is fine the one next to it destroyed.

Major electrical infrastructure damage.
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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4075 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:44 pm

NDG wrote:I still say that the windshear maps over Michael were way off, they did not matched to the dropsondes, especially the mid level shear which is usually the one that causes the most weakening to a major hurricane. As if Michael created its own environment right near it and ahead of its track.

I agree that the shear maps were probably not an accurate representation of true conditions, but it did seem pretty clear to me that Michael was experiencing mid level shear until only sometime yesterday. The eye's inability to close off and clear, despite at least steady strengthening, along with the flattened appearance of the NW quadrant (eventually shifting to SW quadrant as Michael moved north), despite improving upper level outflow, are reasonable examples of this. I'm not sure if it's just that Michael happened develop a structure that was primed to intensify in the face of sub-optimal conditions, or if it was the orientation of the shear in relation to the storm, as earlier discussed.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4076 Postby rickybobby » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:51 pm

Looks at the damage and this was in daytona.
https://www.facebook.com/eric.carlson.3 ... BE&fref=nf
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4077 Postby sbcc » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:58 pm

rickybobby wrote:Looks at the damage and this was in daytona.
https://www.facebook.com/eric.carlson.3 ... BE&fref=nf


Another private page, useless to those of us who value privacy and have been paying attention to Facebooks's latest antics. Please rehost on Streamable or another agnostic provider. Facebook is useless for a growing number of us.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4078 Postby Cypresso » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:05 pm

Rail Dawg wrote:What an incredible experience.

Never get tired of chasing these things.

The power of a 175mph gust just a few feet away can hardly be described.

Learned something today. I’ve talked about the “Fists of God” before. Those powerful bursts of rain and wind the size of a house that do the real damage.

But just before they come there is a sound like an F-18 streaking overhead. You can hear it plain as day. When it sounds off count about 10 seconds then all hell breaks loose with the Fists of God.

Lots of catastrophic damage today. Watched several businesses explode once the windows broke and the gusts got inside.

You have to see, hear and feel this stuff to believe it.


I give kudos to all chasers, but had to leave chat earlier when they were spoken down of. Sorry, but I was heavily impacted by Brett Adair's live feed earlier today at a level I did not expect. Arin is another I have watched live. Again, I respect what chasers do.
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Southside Place, Texas (within Houston). Ike and Harvey survivor. :)

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4079 Postby sbcc » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:13 pm

Cypresso wrote:
Rail Dawg wrote:What an incredible experience.

Never get tired of chasing these things.

The power of a 175mph gust just a few feet away can hardly be described.

Learned something today. I’ve talked about the “Fists of God” before. Those powerful bursts of rain and wind the size of a house that do the real damage.

But just before they come there is a sound like an F-18 streaking overhead. You can hear it plain as day. When it sounds off count about 10 seconds then all hell breaks loose with the Fists of God.

Lots of catastrophic damage today. Watched several businesses explode once the windows broke and the gusts got inside.

You have to see, hear and feel this stuff to believe it.


I give kudos to all chasers, but had to leave chat earlier when they were spoken down of. Sorry, but I was heavily impacted by Brett Adair's live feed earlier today at a level I did not expect. Arin is another I have watched live. Again, I respect what chasers do.


Chasers are by and large consummate professionals. They can read radar input, satellite maps, local observations, upper level charts, radar and satellite trends among other data points and stay out of harm's way. It's a huge skill set. It also involves inherent risk. Chasers overall do a mind boggling job balancing getting the money shot vs. being alive to enjoy it. Much respect from this guy.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4080 Postby SootyTern » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:15 pm

EquusStorm wrote:I need to catch up with posts in the extreme tree damage from landfalling TCs thread, but I didn't expect to have a US storm to add to that list this year. All the tree shredding high end hallmarks are obvious with Michael for a 150+mph storm, and it's a great chance to compare with Frederic, Camille, Katrina, etc, since forest structure is much more similar to those here than it is in south FL to compare with Andrew.


The pictures I've seen on here so far remind me of the Francis Marion National Forest after Hugo, with the majority of pines snapped and folded over.
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