ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Ptarmigan
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4081 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:16 pm

drezee wrote:Mexico beach Facebook page made me sick. So many people stayed and are missing. Even some in the pictures of whole buildings that are gone. Rustic Palms RV and campground had so many people who stayed in trailers.


If that is the case, the death toll could be staggering. :eek: :cry:
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4082 Postby storminabox » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:16 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
NDG wrote:I still say that the windshear maps over Michael were way off, they did not matched to the dropsondes, especially the mid level shear which is usually the one that causes the most weakening to a major hurricane. As if Michael created its own environment right near it and ahead of its track.


It's odd how sometimes that happens and sometimes it doesn't, and it's darn near impossible to predict which storms will do it. I honestly thought Gordon earlier this year had a good shot at overachieving in this fashion, but couldn't quite pull it off.


I personally thought that Gordon had a far better chance of rapidly intensifying into a monster hurricane than Michael did at the beginning of its life. I find it incredible how this storm went from looking like it would make landfall as a sloppy, run of the mill tropical storm to being a catastrophic and unprecedented beast in a matter of days. With Florence, we were aware of where the storm was likely to end up many days prior to landfall, which gave people plenty of time to prepare. What makes Micheal so terrible is how quickly it transformed from being a minor nuisance to a devastating monster, which left people with much less time to prepare for the worst. With Florence, we were aware of what the impacts would be well before it actually made landfall, but with Michael, we were not aware of just how dire of a situation this storm would end up presenting until earlier this morning. This storm certainly caught me off guard and if you were to tell me a week ago that the disorganized mess in the Caribbean was going to make landfall as a borderline catergory 5 hurricane and be one of the strongest to ever hit the United States (at this time Michael was not even an invest yet), I would have laughed in your face. Every year, Mother Nature seems to throw us a major curveball, which is one of the reasons I love tracking the weather so much. I find it astonishing how dull this hurricane season looked like it would be a couple of months ago, but how active and memorable it has turned out being. We truly have a long way to go in terms of understanding how these amazing, yet destructive phenomena work.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4083 Postby Cypresso » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:23 pm

I do believe we are going to see photos/videos in the morning when flights resume during daylight that are going to be astounding, devastating in nature and amazing. I also fear, like others, there is going to be a high death toll overall.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4084 Postby Steve » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:24 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
drezee wrote:Mexico beach Facebook page made me sick. So many people stayed and are missing. Even some in the pictures of whole buildings that are gone. Rustic Palms RV and campground had so many people who stayed in trailers.


If that is the case, the death toll could be staggering. :eek: :cry:


It’s kind of hard to say. Even with the insane damage of Andrew, there were relatively few deaths. My guess would be a few to several dozen people died. Difference here is since drowning is the #1 killer, Michael had more water issues than Andrew, so the death toll should be higher.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4085 Postby Bamagirl2408 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:36 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
drezee wrote:Mexico beach Facebook page made me sick. So many people stayed and are missing. Even some in the pictures of whole buildings that are gone. Rustic Palms RV and campground had so many people who stayed in trailers.


If that is the case, the death toll could be staggering. :eek: :cry:



What is the page? The police department one?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4086 Postby Steve » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:42 pm

Cypresso wrote:I do believe we are going to see photos/videos in the morning when flights resume during daylight that are going to be astounding, devastating in nature and amazing. I also fear, like others, there is going to be a high death toll overall.


You’ll be right about the damage. And not that there are a ton of people or structures, but we haven’t seen (or at least I haven’t seen) anything from east of Port St. Joe. That’s areas like Alligator Point, Sopchoppy, Panacea, Carabelle, Apalachicola or Wewahitchka. I have spent some time there and driven all through there. like others have said, it’s predominantly state and national forests. But there are still a few thousand people there and lots of beach homes and retreats.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4087 Postby Rail Dawg » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:55 pm

On a sad note I think there will be several deaths due to this storm.

When it got dark there were still no first responders.

I have a large chainsaw and there were hundreds of large tress blocking all access roads. Spent hours cutting and barely made a dent.

Hundreds of wires across the roads too.

Tomorrow morning will be the first chance for responders to assess the situation.

With the catastrophic damage I fully expect the death toll to rise. I saw many flattened houses and businesses.

It will be a blessing if I’m wrong.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4088 Postby HDGator » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:11 am

Rail Dawg wrote:On a sad note I think there will be several deaths due to this storm.

When it got dark there were still no first responders.

I have a large chainsaw and there were hundreds of large tress blocking all access roads. Spent hours cutting and barely made a dent.

Hundreds of wires across the roads too.

Tomorrow morning will be the first chance for responders to assess the situation.

With the catastrophic damage I fully expect the death toll to rise. I saw many flattened houses and businesses.

It will be a blessing if I’m wrong.

I'm glad you're safe. That must have been quite an experience.
I know what you mean about the Fists of God. When you hear it and see it, you don't forget it.
I really fear you are not wrong. It appears that many stayed and many of those were elderly.
Tomorrow's light may bring a rising death toll based on all of the damage that we've seen thus far.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4089 Postby Rail Dawg » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:12 am

Can someone tell me what happened to Adair’s crew and truck?

When I heard he went to Mexico Beach to catch the eye my warning flags went up.

Us chasers MUST be in a bunker above the surge. The truck must be protected as much as ourselves.

I saw the eye heading just east of Panama City but knew there was zero protection. Going east for me was unacceptable.

But I trust the judgment of my fellow chasers.

You CAN’T get to a place where you don’t have a bunker and not have an exit plan.

Please post some basic info on Adair. I have been too busy.

Thanks!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4090 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:19 am

Rail Dawg wrote:Can someone tell me what happened to Adair’s crew and truck?

When I heard he went to Mexico Beach to catch the eye my warning flags went up.

Us chasers MUST be in a bunker above the surge. The truck must be protected as much as ourselves.

I saw the eye heading just east of Panama City but knew there was zero protection. Going east for me was unacceptable.

But I trust the judgment of my fellow chasers.

You CAN’T get to a place where you don’t have a bunker and not have an exit plan.

Please post some basic info on Adair. I have been too busy.

Thanks!


His wife posted on social media that he's safe.
His stream was some of the most intense hurricane footage I've seen. He left the camera on in his vehicle just before he and his partner abandoned it. His stream cut out when the storm surge inundated his car.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4091 Postby Rail Dawg » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:24 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Rail Dawg wrote:Can someone tell me what happened to Adair’s crew and truck?

When I heard he went to Mexico Beach to catch the eye my warning flags went up.

Us chasers MUST be in a bunker above the surge. The truck must be protected as much as ourselves.

I saw the eye heading just east of Panama City but knew there was zero protection. Going east for me was unacceptable.

But I trust the judgment of my fellow chasers.

You CAN’T get to a place where you don’t have a bunker and not have an exit plan.

Please post some basic info on Adair. I have been too busy.

Thanks!




His wife posted on social media that he's safe.
His stream was some of the most intense hurricane footage I've seen. He left the camera on in his vehicle just before he and his partner abandoned it. His stream cut out when the storm surge inundated his car.



Thank goodness he and crew are safe.

Chasing is walking a very fine line.

One error can kill you and/or your only lifeline,,, your vehicle.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4092 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:37 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Going back over some intensity estimates, here is my thinking.

* Surface data all went down long before any peak winds were received.

* The lowest pressure on land was 920 mb at Tyndall AFB. However, my best estimate is that it was not in the center of the eye (missed by about 3 miles), with the landfall point at the western end of Crooked Island. In addition, iCyclone measured 923 mb in Callaway, a bit inland and also on the western edge of the eye. The last Recon penetration had 919 mb about an hour before landfall, but it was still rapidly intensifying right up to landfall. Considering those factors, I estimate the landfall pressure was 916 mb. Using the KZC, that would equate to about 142 kt.

* The radar data at one point had 196 mph (171 kt) at about 5,000 feet. Using a 80% reduction would translate that to about 137 kt. The resolution may not have been fully resolved though.

* The highest SFMR was 138 kt, but that isn't particularly reliable near shore, hence that reading should be discarded, as should all near-landfall SFMR readings.

* The highest flight-level winds were 152 kt, in the southeast quadrant at the time of landfall. That translates to about 137 kt at the surface. Since that was in the SE quad, higher winds would be expected in the NE quad - probably about half the forward motion, ending up around 144 kt.

My conclusion: the landfall intensity I believe was 140 kt. That is based on a blend of all available data. However, category 5 winds would have been limited to beachfront areas at Mexico Beach, where there were no instruments. Category 4 winds likely occurred in more areas around East Bay, including some parts of Panama City.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4093 Postby NotoSans » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:43 am

:uarrow: Recon data a few hours before landfall, together with Doppler velocity data, conclusively showed that the maximum winds are in the SE quadrant, but not NE. With flight-level winds data and Doppler velocity, I think it can be argued that it’s a borderline category 5, but 135KT is also reasonable.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4094 Postby HDGator » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:51 am

Rail Dawg wrote:Can someone tell me what happened to Adair’s crew and truck?

When I heard he went to Mexico Beach to catch the eye my warning flags went up.

Us chasers MUST be in a bunker above the surge. The truck must be protected as much as ourselves.

I saw the eye heading just east of Panama City but knew there was zero protection. Going east for me was unacceptable.

But I trust the judgment of my fellow chasers.

You CAN’T get to a place where you don’t have a bunker and not have an exit plan.

Please post some basic info on Adair. I have been too busy.

Thanks!

It's best you watch the video yourself.
The last 15 minutes are the most intense.
https://www.facebook.com/foxsanantonio/videos/242161649794753/
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4095 Postby StruThiO » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:43 am

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4096 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:38 am

NotoSans wrote::uarrow: Recon data a few hours before landfall, together with Doppler velocity data, conclusively showed that the maximum winds are in the SE quadrant, but not NE. With flight-level winds data and Doppler velocity, I think it can be argued that it’s a borderline category 5, but 135KT is also reasonable.
not sure who is arguing that it was borderline, the argument will be, did it pass the threshold
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4097 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:40 am

The 152 knt flight level wind alone passes the limit.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4098 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:45 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Rail Dawg wrote:Can someone tell me what happened to Adair’s crew and truck?

When I heard he went to Mexico Beach to catch the eye my warning flags went up.

Us chasers MUST be in a bunker above the surge. The truck must be protected as much as ourselves.

I saw the eye heading just east of Panama City but knew there was zero protection. Going east for me was unacceptable.

But I trust the judgment of my fellow chasers.

You CAN’T get to a place where you don’t have a bunker and not have an exit plan.

Please post some basic info on Adair. I have been too busy.

Thanks!


His wife posted on social media that he's safe.
His stream was some of the most intense hurricane footage I've seen. He left the camera on in his vehicle just before he and his partner abandoned it. His stream cut out when the storm surge inundated his car.
you want the most intense stuff you do what adair and morgerman do, it was clear with two hours to go mexico beach was the place to be and there are structures there to get above the surge, TWC folks said no to that idea and we should all be ok with that too..problem with twc going for the gold is it can promote the idea of people staying for the next one, its already an issue when they show people driving around a couple hours after the eye passes but it is what it is and they need to cover it...lots of rebuilding to current code and the next time the structural will be damage will be far less
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4099 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:56 am

Looks like South FL is about to get the very tail of Michael.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4100 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:44 am

Sciencerocks wrote:The 152 knt flight level wind alone passes the limit.

Hurricane Emily in 2005 was upgraded to CAT5 in post-season based on a 153kt FL wind alone, but SFMR instrument was not widely used at the time. Unfortunately, the SFMR readings in Michael at landfall may never be verified due to close proximity to shallow waters and land

The degree of damage Michael has caused does make a compelling case for an upgrade, especially since KZC at landfall supports 140kt
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