ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4121 Postby dhweather » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:03 am

longhorn2004 wrote:Random thoughts-


I know Mexico Beach will rebuild, many fun memories going there. Does anyone know how Toucan's fared?
https://www.google.com/maps/@29.9364844 ... 312!8i6656




Toucans is gone.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4122 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:10 am

longhorn2004 wrote:Random thoughts-

Question, why is it a hurricane once making landfall shoots off normally across land. This mass of counter clockwise turning inertia energy is a lot of momentum that just takes off, its odd. The Jetstream doesn't seem to have the same effect on hurricanes as it does on land.

My family is in Port St. Joe, grew up going there many times to see grand parents and family. Now I know why my grand dad built his house with cinder bricks. I am looking at a pic of my wife right now that I took a couple of years ago there on the St. Joe marina thats on the facebook video. Very surreal.

https://www.google.com/maps/@29.8158306 ... 312!8i6656

The houses Mr. Adair referred to on the video may look cheap, but Michael is not the first hurricane these houses have seen or will see. Still trying to get a hold of family, hoping they evacuated, but I bet they didn't.

I know Mexico Beach will rebuild, many fun memories going there. Does anyone know how Toucan's fared?
https://www.google.com/maps/@29.9364844 ... 312!8i6656

If one has never driven from Port Joe to Tyndall its hard to explain. As you an you look at the miles and miles of pine trees that were planted by the St. Joe Paper Company, they seem to be planted in straight rows. Have not seen just pics of the forest to near Tyndall to see how they fared.


If you pan that PSJ link around the two story building over the Marina sign is our PSJ office for our company- We closed it down and evacuated folks on Tuesday. I watched Brett Adair's feed when he went into the Marina lot and before the eyewall came in and he bailed at Mexico beach - around 10:30 am local time, the canvas covers on the boats were already tearing off and the sailboat masts were colliding together etc. The surge had not yet come in and he was feeding from the seawall there. After seeing the damage and winds live I'd expect it to be pretty torn up. No word from our folks there on the condition of the Marina area yet, as they are not going in.

Toucans is wrecked- saw pic yesterday. Sad.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4123 Postby birdwomn » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:14 am

I am looking for ANY information on the SweetBay neighborhood in Panama City. It is on the bay, Heartleaf Ave.
Last edited by birdwomn on Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4124 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:23 am

Live Aerial videos from Mexico Beach on CNN are just sad, at least 70% of homes on the ground on the beach side of the highway just gone off their foundation, even the ones on stilts with severe damage.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4125 Postby jhpigott » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:27 am

NDG wrote:Live Aerial videos from Mexico Beach on CNN are just sad, at least 70% of homes on the ground on the beach side of the highway just gone off their foundation, even the ones on stilts with severe damage.


link here https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/tropic ... index.html

no bueno
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4126 Postby OverlandHurricane » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:30 am

If Michael's pressure of 919 mb verifies, that puts it at #9 among intense hurricane land falls anywhere in the basin.

1. Labor Day, 892
T2. Camille and Gilbert, 900
4. Dean, 905
5. Cuba 1924, 910
T6. Irma and Janet, 914
8. Cuba 1932, 918
9. Michael 919
10. Katrina and Maria, 920

I don't think that's been mentioned here yet.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4127 Postby longhorn2004 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:33 am

dhweather wrote:
longhorn2004 wrote:Random thoughts-


I know Mexico Beach will rebuild, many fun memories going there. Does anyone know how Toucan's fared?
https://www.google.com/maps/@29.9364844 ... 312!8i6656




Toucans is gone.

http://i64.tinypic.com/vfza5s.jpg


I am so sad, so many great memories there. :cry: :cry: :cry: Hope they rebuild.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4128 Postby Michele B » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:34 am

Texas Snowman wrote:@hurricanetrack — Walking thru Mexico Beach to receive my GoPro cam and I’m telling you, it’s DEVASTATED. Truly devastated. Some buildings completely swept clean - only slabs.


Anybody remember who was the guy who built his own house, and was staying in it?

I can't remember if he was in Mexico Beach, or where, but he says last night he was fine, his house was fine and he was glad he stayed, even though he only thought it was going to be a Cat 2 and WOULDN'T DO IT AGAIN!!

:lol:
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4129 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:39 am

The human toll from this is just staggering, there are absolutely no words for the sobering devastation all along the path; but also the ecological toll is extremely depressing. The hurricane probably hit the unique Apalachicola River ecosystem (and Torreya State Park) with its glacial relict forests and highly endangered species harder than any others in history, and the environmental damage may be unprecedented - not to mention the vast swaths of slightly less unique but nonetheless important forests obliterated all the way into central Georgia. Just awful all around on every front. It hasn't sunk in yet; this, going from a disorganized gyre to the 3rd most intense US hit in a place one would least expect it to racing off the Atlantic coast, in the span the length of a work week
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4130 Postby p1nheadlarry » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:46 am

longhorn2004 wrote:
dhweather wrote:
longhorn2004 wrote:Random thoughts-


I know Mexico Beach will rebuild, many fun memories going there. Does anyone know how Toucan's fared?
https://www.google.com/maps/@29.9364844 ... 312!8i6656




Toucans is gone.

http://i64.tinypic.com/vfza5s.jpg


I am so sad, so many great memories there. :cry: :cry: :cry: Hope they rebuild.


Got to refurbish the walls of the new place with dollar bill notes!
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I'm not a professional meteorologist but an amateur and enthusiast. Please refer to a professional or the local NWS office, NHC/NOAA for any official forecast.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4131 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:48 am

txwatcher91 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Good site from weatherflow with surface obs across the SE U.S. Only TS wind I could find in the past hour was in a band of showers near Charleston, SC (on a pier 43 ft up). The report was 42 mph. No evidence of any TS winds inland. Been too busy to read through the thread. Any good links to videos I missed?

http://ds.weatherflow.com/storm/michael#33.884,-75.408,7,8,113055,1


Keep in mind a lot of stations are no longer reporting due to power outages and the wind is transitioning more to a gust threat. Some of the high res models are showing winds gusting anywhere from 60-90mph over NC later today as some baroclinic forcing and dry air help mix down some high wind gusts. KGSP discussion is mentioning this as a distinct possibility and we will find out in a few hours if this is legit. Otherwise the high res models are only showing 40-50mph gusts on the east side of Michael and that appears to be verifying quite well.


These are not NWS stations on the weatherflow site. It's their stations that have battery backup. Click on a station and you can see a wind trace (in mph). Columbia, SC reported a peak sustained wind of 35 mph with a gusts to 45 mph in the past hour. Generally, any sustained TS wind appears to be confined to over water at the beaches. Without any deep convection, strong winds aloft won't make it to the surface.

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4132 Postby Rail Dawg » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:48 am

jlauderdal wrote:you want the most intense stuff you do what adair and morgerman do, it was clear with two hours to go mexico beach was the place to be and there are structures there to get above the surge, TWC folks said no to that idea and we should all be ok with that too..problem with twc going for the gold is it can promote the idea of people staying for the next one, its already an issue when they show people driving around a couple hours after the eye passes but it is what it is and they need to cover it...lots of rebuilding to current code and the next time the structural will be damage will be far less


I'm not sure if Adair or Morgerman are on here. If not they should be lol!

No matter what "dispatch" tells you the vehicle is ultimately under your control.

I didn't follow Adair out to Mexico Beach because I spent countless hours searching Google Earth for where to make my stand.

There are a few concrete must-haves when you choose where you're going to ride the hurricane.

Remember that without your vehicle you don't have your 2 weeks of food, water, place to sleep, shotgun, communications, chain saw and other survival gear.

Our friend Adair (and I would talk to him directly here so please don't think I'm disparaging him) came 10 feet of additional surge from becoming a statistic or someone who needed rescuing.

You can't hinge your chase where one failure can cost you your life and/or your vehicle.

When I chased Hurricane Matthew from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville at 10-20 mph I was alone and was literally watching the A1A road being destroyed. But I constantly had a backup plan where the 120 mph wind wasn't the concern it was the surge. I had every bridge to the mainland targeted to get above the surge and finally had to use one when the water rose.

Mexico Beach and Port St. Joe simply lacked the protection from 175 mph gusts and a possible 12-14 ft surge. There is no way I could justify that risk.

Would being in the eye be an awesome experience? Heck yes. Last years Irma in Naples FL was one for the books.

I'm lucky because I have no one barking orders at me. I don't take pictures or video. It's a very personal thing and one of the most exciting things you can do. There are plenty of videos and pics to look at after the fact.

I've lost count on the storms chased but I still learn every time.

You all here are more helpful than you realize. The information you provide is crucial and it beats having to go to multiple sites for the data.

Maybe I'll make a mistake and lose my life on a chase. But the goal is to walk to the edge of the cliff knowing that there is a solid back-up plan.

Thanks again to all of you. Smart group of folks that's for sure.
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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4133 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:54 am

wxman57 wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Good site from weatherflow with surface obs across the SE U.S. Only TS wind I could find in the past hour was in a band of showers near Charleston, SC (on a pier 43 ft up). The report was 42 mph. No evidence of any TS winds inland. Been too busy to read through the thread. Any good links to videos I missed?

http://ds.weatherflow.com/storm/michael#33.884,-75.408,7,8,113055,1


Keep in mind a lot of stations are no longer reporting due to power outages and the wind is transitioning more to a gust threat. Some of the high res models are showing winds gusting anywhere from 60-90mph over NC later today as some baroclinic forcing and dry air help mix down some high wind gusts. KGSP discussion is mentioning this as a distinct possibility and we will find out in a few hours if this is legit. Otherwise the high res models are only showing 40-50mph gusts on the east side of Michael and that appears to be verifying quite well.


These are not NWS stations on the weatherflow site. It's their stations that have battery backup. Click on a station and you can see a wind trace (in mph). Columbia, SC reported a peak sustained wind of 35 mph with a gusts to 45 mph in the past hour. Generally, any sustained TS wind appears to be confined to over water at the beaches. Without any deep convection, strong winds aloft won't make it to the surface.

http://wxman57.com/images/wxflow.JPG


I understand what you're saying but the models have been forecasting for awhile now that these areas in SC would not see sustained TS winds and the gusts would be 40-50mph range which is what we've seen. Furthermore in NC there is going to be baroclinic enhancement combined with dry air that mixes down winds effectively to the surface. The high res models like 3km NAM, 12km NAM and HRRR all show winds gusting 50-80mph over NC due to this so it's going to be a lot worse for those areas. The local Raleigh NWS is also picking up on this and has updated their briefing to include 55+ gusts from this band in NC.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4134 Postby Rail Dawg » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:59 am

Agua wrote:
igoldfish wrote: I hope the person heard on the phone ( storm chaser coordinator?) is held accountable for sending this team into a Cat4/5 eyewall.


The guy or the station should have to pay for the truck. This should be exhibit A as to why the professional on the ground should be making the decisions.


Without question.

Well said.
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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4135 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:09 am

txwatcher91 wrote:I understand what you're saying but the models have been forecasting for awhile now that these areas in SC would not see sustained TS winds and the gusts would be 40-50mph range which is what we've seen. Furthermore in NC there is going to be baroclinic enhancement combined with dry air that mixes down winds effectively to the surface. The high res models like 3km NAM, 12km NAM and HRRR all show winds gusting 50-80mph over NC due to this so it's going to be a lot worse for those areas. The local Raleigh NWS is also picking up on this and has updated their briefing to include 55+ gusts from this band in NC.


It'll be interesting to see how the wind field develops as it begins transitioning to ET this evening. Winds will certainly increase across eastern VA/NC.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4136 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:19 am

Rail Dawg wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:you want the most intense stuff you do what adair and morgerman do, it was clear with two hours to go mexico beach was the place to be and there are structures there to get above the surge, TWC folks said no to that idea and we should all be ok with that too..problem with twc going for the gold is it can promote the idea of people staying for the next one, its already an issue when they show people driving around a couple hours after the eye passes but it is what it is and they need to cover it...lots of rebuilding to current code and the next time the structural will be damage will be far less


I'm not sure if Adair or Morgerman are on here. If not they should be lol!

No matter what "dispatch" tells you the vehicle is ultimately under your control.

I didn't follow Adair out to Mexico Beach because I spent countless hours searching Google Earth for where to make my stand.

There are a few concrete must-haves when you choose where you're going to ride the hurricane.

Remember that without your vehicle you don't have your 2 weeks of food, water, place to sleep, shotgun, communications, chain saw and other survival gear.

Our friend Adair (and I would talk to him directly here so please don't think I'm disparaging him) came 10 feet of additional surge from becoming a statistic or someone who needed rescuing.

You can't hinge your chase where one failure can cost you your life and/or your vehicle.

When I chased Hurricane Matthew from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville at 10-20 mph I was alone and was literally watching the A1A road being destroyed. But I constantly had a backup plan where the 120 mph wind wasn't the concern it was the surge. I had every bridge to the mainland targeted to get above the surge and finally had to use one when the water rose.

Mexico Beach and Port St. Joe simply lacked the protection from 175 mph gusts and a possible 12-14 ft surge. There is no way I could justify that risk.

Would being in the eye be an awesome experience? Heck yes. Last years Irma in Naples FL was one for the books.

I'm lucky because I have no one barking orders at me. I don't take pictures or video. It's a very personal thing and one of the most exciting things you can do. There are plenty of videos and pics to look at after the fact.

I've lost count on the storms chased but I still learn every time.

You all here are more helpful than you realize. The information you provide is crucial and it beats having to go to multiple sites for the data.

Maybe I'll make a mistake and lose my life on a chase. But the goal is to walk to the edge of the cliff knowing that there is a solid back-up plan.

Thanks again to all of you. Smart group of folks that's for sure.
excellent post, its all about the risk calculation and having an escape plan...these systems intensify, change direction and as we saw yesterday, TWC was in a relatively tame area...addiar and others were at ground zero in a life threating situation...huge issue is the citizens that have no idea and stay for these systems not to chase but just ignoring the warnings.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4137 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:20 am

Finally looks like fall across the US. Dewpoints in the 40s and 50s after today!

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4138 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:31 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Good site from weatherflow with surface obs across the SE U.S. Only TS wind I could find in the past hour was in a band of showers near Charleston, SC (on a pier 43 ft up). The report was 42 mph. No evidence of any TS winds inland. Been too busy to read through the thread. Any good links to videos I missed?

http://ds.weatherflow.com/storm/michael#33.884,-75.408,7,8,113055,1


Keep in mind a lot of stations are no longer reporting due to power outages and the wind is transitioning more to a gust threat. Some of the high res models are showing winds gusting anywhere from 60-90mph over NC later today as some baroclinic forcing and dry air help mix down some high wind gusts. KGSP discussion is mentioning this as a distinct possibility and we will find out in a few hours if this is legit. Otherwise the high res models are only showing 40-50mph gusts on the east side of Michael and that appears to be verifying quite well.

Yep, there is a big swath knocked out by Michael.

https://twitter.com/JoshWeather/status/1050270572696035328

I would like NOAA to replace these destroyed stations with newer and more sturdy ones. Many anemometers in the US won't even make it through marginal hurricane conditions. In WPAC countries like China and Japan where most weather stations are newly constructed, extreme windspeed observations are quite common during landfalling typhoons. Most landfalling hurricanes in US don't have any surface observation that matches their intensities because of high station failure rate
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4139 Postby longhorn2004 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:45 am

Again, why do hurricanes travel faster across land than over oceans? That is a lot of inertia and energy to speed up.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4140 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:47 am

Michael may pull a surprise here. NWS is only expecting wind peaks here of 35 mph. Maybe a quarter to half inch of rain. To me Michael seems to have transitioned into a right weighted storm with banding increasing to the right of the center being fed by the ocean . A question for Wxman. Can the baroclinic transition occur while the center is over land.
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