ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4141 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:53 am

longhorn2004 wrote:Again, why do hurricanes travel faster across land than over oceans? That is a lot of inertia and energy to speed up.


Hurricanes are driven by upper level winds. Those winds are very strong over eastern North America right now. It has nothing to do with land vs sea. It'll be moving even faster over the north Atlantic in a couple of days.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4142 Postby toad strangler » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:53 am

Rail Dawg wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:you want the most intense stuff you do what adair and morgerman do, it was clear with two hours to go mexico beach was the place to be and there are structures there to get above the surge, TWC folks said no to that idea and we should all be ok with that too..problem with twc going for the gold is it can promote the idea of people staying for the next one, its already an issue when they show people driving around a couple hours after the eye passes but it is what it is and they need to cover it...lots of rebuilding to current code and the next time the structural will be damage will be far less


I'm not sure if Adair or Morgerman are on here. If not they should be lol!

No matter what "dispatch" tells you the vehicle is ultimately under your control.

I didn't follow Adair out to Mexico Beach because I spent countless hours searching Google Earth for where to make my stand.

There are a few concrete must-haves when you choose where you're going to ride the hurricane.

Remember that without your vehicle you don't have your 2 weeks of food, water, place to sleep, shotgun, communications, chain saw and other survival gear.

Our friend Adair (and I would talk to him directly here so please don't think I'm disparaging him) came 10 feet of additional surge from becoming a statistic or someone who needed rescuing.

You can't hinge your chase where one failure can cost you your life and/or your vehicle.

When I chased Hurricane Matthew from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville at 10-20 mph I was alone and was literally watching the A1A road being destroyed. But I constantly had a backup plan where the 120 mph wind wasn't the concern it was the surge. I had every bridge to the mainland targeted to get above the surge and finally had to use one when the water rose.

Mexico Beach and Port St. Joe simply lacked the protection from 175 mph gusts and a possible 12-14 ft surge. There is no way I could justify that risk.

Would being in the eye be an awesome experience? Heck yes. Last years Irma in Naples FL was one for the books.

I'm lucky because I have no one barking orders at me. I don't take pictures or video. It's a very personal thing and one of the most exciting things you can do. There are plenty of videos and pics to look at after the fact.

I've lost count on the storms chased but I still learn every time.

You all here are more helpful than you realize. The information you provide is crucial and it beats having to go to multiple sites for the data.

Maybe I'll make a mistake and lose my life on a chase. But the goal is to walk to the edge of the cliff knowing that there is a solid back-up plan.

Thanks again to all of you. Smart group of folks that's for sure.


Morgerman used to post on the old Eastern Wx forums as Hurricane Josh" a lot when he first started chasing. Then he hopped over to American Wx as many did when Eastern sank. American was hollowed out with a ton of talent leaving for places like here and others. Josh doesn't post anymore as far a I can tell since he started focusing on iCyclone.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4143 Postby storm4u » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:53 am

longhorn2004 wrote:Again, why do hurricanes travel faster across land than over oceans? That is a lot of inertia and energy to speed up.


Riding along. a cold front now
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4144 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:54 am

supercane4867 wrote:I would like NOAA to replace these destroyed stations with newer and more sturdy ones. Many anemometers in the US won't even make it through marginal hurricane conditions. In WPAC countries like China and Japan where most weather stations are newly constructed, extreme windspeed observations are quite common during landfalling typhoons. Most landfalling hurricanes in US don't have any surface observation that matches their intensities because of high station failure rate


I think that most of the time it's the lack of power that takes the stations out rather than the instruments failing in strong wind. Once the power goes out (low-end TS winds) the stations stop reporting. Some data may be recoverable post-storm.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4145 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:55 am

longhorn2004 wrote:Again, why do hurricanes travel faster across land than over oceans? That is a lot of inertia and energy to speed up.

It doesn't have to do with land vs water, it has more to do with the trough, which had an increasing affect on Michael as he traveled north. As you get closer to the mid latitudes, the steering currents get stronger. It just so happens that the US mainland is in the mid latitudes.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4146 Postby xironman » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:15 am

RL3AO wrote:Finally looks like fall across the US. Dewpoints in the 40s and 50s after today!

https://i.imgur.com/aH8oAMV.png


You are only anxious because you have been suffering in NC waiting for breath of fresh air since late May.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4147 Postby Michele B » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:15 am

Rail Dawg wrote:
Agua wrote:
igoldfish wrote: I hope the person heard on the phone ( storm chaser coordinator?) is held accountable for sending this team into a Cat4/5 eyewall.


The guy or the station should have to pay for the truck. This should be exhibit A as to why the professional on the ground should be making the decisions.


Without question.

Well said.


Two words:

RAY - TINGS

Adair didn't do it because "someone on the radio said to go....."

He went because someone is PAYING HIM to be "where the action is" and get ratings. Or views. Or whatever their motivations were.

But Adair should have had the final say, and he should have told that dispatcher (or boss, or whatever) to GO STUFF IT.....it was too dangerous for them to go there with no back-up plan for how to survive.

Maybe Adair learned a valuable lesson, too.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4148 Postby Gums » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:20 am

Salute all!

The counties west of the landfall came out really well, with minor flooding in the very low places ( as usual) and some wind damage.

As with Kate back in 85, and some others like ivan ( I saw that on west side helping my folks), the wind was much lighter than the graphics you see that show the extent and magnitude. Was 20 miles east of impact for Erin, Opal and Juan, and the wind was almost exactly what NHC graphics portrayed, I guess that's due to surface friction versus a dropsonde measurement or other sensors on the recce bird. Am I close on that?

One great item that Dawg posted was that "Fist of God" phenomena.


We personally witnessed it in both Opal and Erin. Especially Erin. I had garage door open, facing south, and wind had already started to come from east-northeast. Wind was down to maybe 30-40 mph, like a strong summer thunderstorm. I heard a semi coming down the state hwy about a quarter mile south of me and wondered what he was doing in this storm. That's what it sounded like, a big truck with knobby tires. Suddenly all the trees to my east started leaning over big time and WHAM!!! Tree thru roof from behind me!

So those mesovortexes or whatever are real and more responsible for the house next door going away and your place is fine. The Dawg nailed it. My folks place just north of New Orleans was sameo, sameo. a dozen big trees down on their roof and two houses away were just fine. They and neighbors described the noise and their ears popping. Must be the pressure change, huh?

If you don't leave or can't leave, then that sound is a good clue to "duck and cover", as debris could come right thru your wall or roof.

Lastly, all should look at the videos and such now coming out. Note that there are no leaves on the trees! This only happens with Cat 3 or higher storms, and I saw it after Camille at Biloxi, and again when very close to impact point of Opal. Our wind only got to 110 sustained, gusts to 130, but we retained most of the leaves on the oaks and other deciduous (sp?) trees.

Gums sends...
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4149 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:32 am

I don't know how many here have cable TV access but the damage at Mexico Beach is much worse than it looked yesterday...There are whole sections of housing that are wiped out as in concrete slab-type destruction...Equal to borderline category 5 from the NHC destruction charts...

I'm not criticizing Adair because he was desperately trying to get in the lee of the eyewall winds for survival...Try being in that situation and then have people second-guessing you on the internet...However if he had just made the next right turn on Fryer St he could have gotten above the surge and parked behind a masonry house...
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4150 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:36 am

Only minimal damage in Panama City Beach area, I didn't drive east into Panama City but I imagine it's very devastating. There are many helicopters surveying the damage. Gas station destroyed in my county west of PCB. I hate to say it no one take this the wrong way but it looks like the worst of the damage is in a rough area near downtown PC, at least better than damaging the nicer areas. Hopefully no one is hurt and maybe the area will rebuild to be nicer than before.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4151 Postby Michele B » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:44 am

Gums wrote:Salute all!

The counties west of the landfall came out really well, with minor flooding in the very low places ( as usual) and some wind damage.

As with Kate back in 85, and some others like ivan ( I saw that on west side helping my folks), the wind was much lighter than the graphics you see that show the extent and magnitude. Was 20 miles east of impact for Erin, Opal and Juan, and the wind was almost exactly what NHC graphics portrayed, I guess that's due to surface friction versus a dropsonde measurement or other sensors on the recce bird. Am I close on that?

One great item that Dawg posted was that "Fist of God" phenomena.


We personally witnessed it in both Opal and Erin. Especially Erin. I had garage door open, facing south, and wind had already started to come from east-northeast. Wind was down to maybe 30-40 mph, like a strong summer thunderstorm. I heard a semi coming down the state hwy about a quarter mile south of me and wondered what he was doing in this storm. That's what it sounded like, a big truck with knobby tires. Suddenly all the trees to my east started leaning over big time and WHAM!!! Tree thru roof from behind me!

So those mesovortexes or whatever are real and more responsible for the house next door going away and your place is fine. The Dawg nailed it. My folks place just north of New Orleans was sameo, sameo. a dozen big trees down on their roof and two houses away were just fine. They and neighbors described the noise and their ears popping. Must be the pressure change, huh?

If you don't leave or can't leave, then that sound is a good clue to "duck and cover", as debris could come right thru your wall or roof.

Lastly, all should look at the videos and such now coming out. Note that there are no leaves on the trees! This only happens with Cat 3 or higher storms, and I saw it after Camille at Biloxi, and again when very close to impact point of Opal. Our wind only got to 110 sustained, gusts to 130, but we retained most of the leaves on the oaks and other deciduous (sp?) trees.

Gums sends...


The sound is tornado sound. I believe it. Those "mesovorteses" whatever, to me are mini-TORNADOES, and they spawn up in hurricanes....the winds are swirling so fiercely. Totally explains the "my house destroyed/your house fine" syndrome.

Freight train noise, always describes tornadoes. Ears popping....as in sudden DROP in baro-pressure. It's quite low to begin with (as hurricanes are just GIANT low-level tornadoes (like f-0) anyway) my opinion. Then when they spawn up a BIGGER tornado, the pressure drops EVEN MORE! Explains why you'll see the water in a toilet bowl literally SUCKED OUT of the pipes in the worst of it.

We saw it here in Charley. Like that boat storage place they showed this morning on TWC....we had a hurricane shelter where the roof PEELED BACK, and 1500 people had to be evac'd across the street to the local High school - IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WORST OF THE STORM - to safety. Several blocks due WEST of there, a restaurant where the roof was ripped off, but all the table setting, salt/pepper shakers, utensils and NAPKINS still sitting on the tables! THAT's not hurricane winds coming in, or EVERYTHING would have been blown away.

Oh, yeah, add: NO LEAVES ON TREES: Saw this in Andrew in S. FL. Not completely in Charley.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4152 Postby Vdogg » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:49 am

If I didn't know any better it looks like the cloud tops are firing up again a little. Am I seeing things?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4153 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:49 am

longhorn2004 wrote:Again, why do hurricanes travel faster across land than over oceans? That is a lot of inertia and energy to speed up.


Harvey didn't, many do not, many travel at the same speed, and many get sped up by fronts. It's not so much a land thing as it is a latitude thing. Think about recurving storms off the east coast that never make landfall but speed up the more north they go as the enter the westerlies.

In Michael's case it was the front. If Michael has happened a day or so later it would have been a sheared mess of a storm getting tangled up in the cold front.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4154 Postby psyclone » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:51 am

The aerial video over Mexico Beach is horrific. Hopefully no one was in those beach houses...very tough to survive that. I saw some storm chaser video after the heart of the storm had passed though and the surge was retreating out to sea in one of the canals and it was transporting a house out to sea...it reminded me of tsunami footage from Japan in 2011. These high end storms are nature's nuke.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4155 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:55 am

Heard Captian Anderson's got destroyed :( was one of my favorite places to eat
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4156 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:57 am

Aerial view of Mexico Beach after Michael :eek:

 https://twitter.com/garofalowx/status/1050427305414119424




Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4157 Postby Michele B » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:09 pm

psyclone wrote:The aerial video over Mexico Beach is horrific. Hopefully no one was in those beach houses...very tough to survive that. I saw some storm chaser video after the heart of the storm had passed though and the surge was retreating out to sea in one of the canals and it was transporting a house out to sea...it reminded me of tsunami footage from Japan in 2011. These high end storms are nature's nuke.


Definitely Michael wanted to go into history and NEVER be forgotten.

Told my husband, the name may be retired after this, but NO ONE in Panhandle will EVER forget the name. And we will ALL be invoking his name forever, remembering the "strongest storm to hit panhandle..." etc. etc.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4158 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:30 pm

Definitely a storm for the history books! This is also why you prepare for a forecasted below average season like you would an expected above average one.

Looking at the images and live video coming out of Mexico Beach you’d think it was a war zone! :cry:
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4159 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:36 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Aerial view of Mexico Beach after Michael :eek:

https://twitter.com/garofalowx/status/1050427305414119424

https://i.imgur.com/AvH46Tm.jpg

Looks like the views just after the EF-5 Joplin, Missouri tornado back in 2011.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4160 Postby N2FSU » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:59 pm

House made it through unscathed here in Tallahassee, thousands others, some just a few blocks away, aren’t so lucky. We are so densely tree covered in this area and the damage from those trees is widespread. 90% are without power (>110,000) and will be for probably a week. Had this made landfall another 40 miles east, Tallahassee would have been decimated.
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