ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4161 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:03 pm

Cellphones are working in Mexico Beach.

 https://twitter.com/Ginger_Zee/status/1050430354195136512


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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4162 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:05 pm

Guy who works for my family's painting company genuinely believes "the government is making the hurricanes stronger" More BS than flat earthers.
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Irma 2017, Nate 2017, Alberto 2018, Michael 2018

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4163 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:10 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:Guy who works for my family's painting company genuinely believes "the government is making the hurricanes stronger" More BS than flat earthers.


Something about these "weather modification" nut jobs just makes my blood boil. Abandon your paranoid conspiracy theories and respect the power of NATURE. Yeah the U.S. government tried modifying hurricanes (in the hope of WEAKENING them) and thought they might be getting somewhere, then abandoned that when they realized any weakening observed was due to natural processes.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4164 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:18 pm

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4165 Postby longhorn2004 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:Extensive the trees that are down.

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1050450270898061314


I guess the St Joe Paper company will harvest the trees since they planted many of them back in the day.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4166 Postby caneman » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:Extensive the trees that are down.

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1050450270898061314


I saw destruction like that from Charley. Crazy stuff
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4167 Postby syfr » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:59 pm



Still has recognizable shape here near Raleigh. Lots of rain, not much wind
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4168 Postby tallywx » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:03 pm

N2FSU wrote:House made it through unscathed here in Tallahassee, thousands others, some just a few blocks away, aren’t so lucky. We are so densely tree covered in this area and the damage from those trees is widespread. 90% are without power (>110,000) and will be for probably a week. Had this made landfall another 40 miles east, Tallahassee would have been decimated.


It's haunting to consider how close Tallahassee came to this. All you have to do is look as the extent of devastation in places like Blountstown and Marianna to realize how fortunate Tallahassee is today.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4170 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:27 pm

This is the big question. Will MIchael be upgraded to cat 5 in post season analysis?

 https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1050467062789881859


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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4171 Postby StruThiO » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:33 pm

:uarrow:

didnt happen with maria pr landfall
didnt happen with jose

going to say it stays at 135 kts..
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4172 Postby Kazmit » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:39 pm

StruThiO wrote::uarrow:

didnt happen with maria pr landfall
didnt happen with jose

going to say it stays at 135 kts..

I think if this was out at sea when it peaked it wouldn't get upgraded. Jose, Joaquin, and Igor were all held right at the top of cat 4, but were not making landfall. So maybe the extent of the damage and observations right as Michael was making landfall will be enough to convince the NHC to bump it up. But again, it's only a 2mph difference.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4173 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:52 pm

I think there's a decent chance it gets upgraded too. The satellite presentation easily supported a cat 5, the elevated winds measured by radar were strong enough, the damage is remarkable, and the pressure generally supports a cat 5. Plus the last couple hours only had two eyewall passes with the last one catching a 152kt FL wind and there was no dropsonde in the 60 to 90 minutes before landfall.

The more I look at the big picture, I think 140 kts is very justifiable.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4174 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:04 pm

Yeah some of that damage really seems like Michael may have reached five. If that's true that'll be the 3rd straight year of a category 5 as well as the 3rd straight M name. I guess M is the new I now. Talk about smashing that major hurricane drought very dramatically!

Death toll is starting to climb now that the damage is being checked. Up to 6 now.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4175 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:12 pm

At least there's a front moving through the area right now which will give those without power a few days of lower humidities and pleasant morning temperatures. Not quite the post-Wilma cold blast but better than an early September hurricane.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4176 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:15 pm

Looking at these damage photos. The degree of wind damage Michael had caused is definitely among top tier landfalling tropical cyclones worldwide.

Few of them that came to my mind include: Irma in Virgin Islands, Andrew in SFL, Camille in MS coast.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... a-carolina
Last edited by supercane4867 on Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4177 Postby StruThiO » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:25 pm

The consensus does seem to be the intensity should be bumped up. We'll see. The damage seems consistent with a category 5.

By the way, thank you to the mods and staff of s2k. This site has had much less tomfoolery than other forums, from my experience. Thank you for your work in maintaining it.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4178 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:30 pm

I have a hypothesis I'd like to throw out there:

I think Michael's ability to strengthen up until landfall, instead of weakening like so many hurricanes do, had to do with its angle of approach with respect to the trough. Michael was already moving north in advance of the approaching trough, instead of being forced to recurve almost directly against their initial motion, as so many major hurricanes often are when they approach from the east. I think the lack of a need for Michael to fight its own inertia against the impending trough to turn north, as opposed to a Katrina or Rita type scenario might have been why its structure was so much better able hold strong up until landfall. I don't know how much credence this idea has, but I think its interesting that Camille and Harvey, both strengthening major hurricanes, had similar tracks and angles of approach on their ultimate landfall location to Michael.
Any thoughts?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4179 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:35 pm

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4180 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:38 pm

Destruction of the WeatherFlow station at Tyndall Air Force Base that measured 920 mb before failure:

 https://twitter.com/WeatherFlowCHAS/status/1050206048244645888




Andrew- and Hugo-like wind damage to sturdy, mature pine trees in the western eyewall, Panama City:

 https://twitter.com/Basehunters/status/1050419463428947968




More extreme wind damage, including debarking of mature trees, near the railroad tracks in Panama City:

 https://twitter.com/Sean_Breslin/status/1050204142352982016


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