ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4181 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:56 pm

Kazmit wrote:
StruThiO wrote::uarrow:

didnt happen with maria pr landfall
didnt happen with jose

going to say it stays at 135 kts..

I think if this was out at sea when it peaked it wouldn't get upgraded. Jose, Joaquin, and Igor were all held right at the top of cat 4, but were not making landfall. So maybe the extent of the damage and observations right as Michael was making landfall will be enough to convince the NHC to bump it up. But again, it's only a 2mph difference.


Actually, if it were out at sea, I would argue that there would be a chance it would be upgraded. With ADT numbers meeting or exceeding 7.0 in the final hour or two before landfall, there might be a case for upgrade if recon wasn't in the storm already, as some pro-mets pointed out near the time of landfall.

As for why it didn't happen in Maria or Jose, neither Maria's satellite presentation nor recon data supported an intensity above 155mph. I happen to think that since it had just completed in ERC and was showing since of strengthening, that if it had an extra hour or two before landfall, that it could have pulled it out. But that's simply not what happened.

As for Jose, this quote from its Post Storm Analysis sums it up well:
Jose’s estimated peak intensity of 135 kt from 1800 UTC 8 September to 0000 UTC 9
September is based on a blend of SFMR and flight-level aircraft data from two consecutive Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter missions. During the first mission, the aircraft measured peak
700-mb flight-level winds of 146 kt and 142 kt at 1208 UTC and 1356 UTC 8 September,
respectively, which equate to an intensity of about 130 kt. The highest “unflagged” SFMR
measurement during the same flight was 125 kt. On the next flight, the plane measured a slightly
lower peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 135 kt at 0026 UTC 9 September. The highest SFMR
measurement was 142 kt a few minutes later, however this observation was surrounded by
multiple flagged values and data dropouts, making the measurement somewhat questionable.
Without entirely discounting this measurement, Jose’s maximum intensity is estimated to be 135
kt, which is a blend of the SFMR data and the highest flight-level-adjusted winds.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4182 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:57 pm

Shell Mound wrote:Destruction of the WeatherFlow station at Tyndall Air Force Base that measured 920 mb before failure:
https://twitter.com/WeatherFlowCHAS/sta ... 8244645888

Given the fact that it was destoryed, most likely by wind, before winds calm down in the eye, It likey missed the lowest pressure. Since there was no dropsonde released during landfall and the last one before that recorded 919mb, the pressure at landfall could be as low as 916mb
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4183 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:08 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:I have a hypothesis I'd like to throw out there:

I think Michael's ability to strengthen up until landfall, instead of weakening like so many hurricanes do, had to do with its angle of approach with respect to the trough. Michael was already moving north in advance of the approaching trough, instead of being forced to recurve almost directly against their initial motion, as so many major hurricanes often are when they approach from the east. I think the lack of a need for Michael to fight its own inertia against the impending trough to turn north, as opposed to a Katrina or Rita type scenario might have been why its structure was so much better able hold strong up until landfall. I don't know how much credence this idea has, but I think its interesting that Camille and Harvey, both strengthening major hurricanes, had similar tracks and angles of approach on their ultimate landfall location to Michael.
Any thoughts?



It could be a combination of being under the control of the ridge and not the front and coming along "west" under the ridge still...Plus the 4-6 degrees above average Sea Surface Temperature...
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4184 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:13 pm

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4185 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:14 pm

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4186 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:22 pm

Shell Mound wrote:Destruction of the WeatherFlow station at Tyndall Air Force Base that measured 920 mb before failure:

https://twitter.com/WeatherFlowCHAS/status/1050206048244645888


I believe the pressure sensor made it through to the eye edge, but was destroyed in the back eyewall. However, from what I can tell, that was not in the center of the eye - it was likely a few millibars lower given the sharp gradient.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4187 Postby Abdullah » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:23 pm

I found a very good website, in my opinion.
https://www.poweroutage.usa
These are the current stats they give.
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Does anyone know why California has a Power Outage. Also, North Carolina has more than Florida and Georgia?
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Oof. Gadsden County is dead. Also, look at that bright spot! Calhoun is doing relatively well.
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Alabama was affected as well.
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SouthWest Georgia is dead. You'd think this state has the most.
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South Carolina is doing surprisingly well. Anyone know why?
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North Carolina is like a renewal of the storm. Anyone know why?
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The storm is in Virginia. As you can tell by my flawed artistic skills.
Last edited by Abdullah on Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4188 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:23 pm

^
Curious to see the severe thunderstorm warnings posted along with the tropical storm warnings...the warnings are all around the circulation as it's pushing toward the coast. I guess we see why.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4189 Postby longhorn2004 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:24 pm

Any idea of the beach erosion at Mexico Beach.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4190 Postby Agua » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:28 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:Guy who works for my family's painting company genuinely believes "the government is making the hurricanes stronger" More BS than flat earthers.

Let me say I agree, but my mind has wandered back to the time of Katrina.

This was when it was TD 10 - it may have even been *before* it dissapated, then reorganized as TD 10.

There was some poster on here that kept repeating something about it was going to destroy New Orleans and would bring complete destruction. Seems like, and I could be conflating something here, but seems like the poster was suggesting he/she was Russian and that it was being directed by Russia(?). Whoever it was was not offering any meteorological rationale whatsoever. I know that is all nuts, and the poster was banned pretty quickly, but does any one else remember this incident? After the storm, I obviously had many other things to be concerned with, but every once in a while, my mind will go back to that eerie and strangely accurate prediction.
Last edited by Agua on Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4191 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:28 pm

And I just lost power from the blob of winds.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4192 Postby psyclone » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:38 pm

Why does the NWS issue a severe thunderstorm warning for winds up to 60mph when said area is already under a TS warning which technically covers winds up to 64kt?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4193 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:44 pm

StruThiO wrote:The consensus does seem to be the intensity should be bumped up. We'll see. The damage seems consistent with a category 5.




Is there much of a difference damage-wise between a very strong Cat 4 and a low-end (can't really say weak) 5? How do they tell?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4194 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:46 pm

psyclone wrote:Why does the NWS issue a severe thunderstorm warning for winds up to 60mph when said area is already under a TS warning which technically covers winds up to 64kt?


I think it's a combo of these winds relating more to mixing of cold and dry air downward instead of from the pressure gradient of the TS. Plus it's impacting a major population center during rush hour so the extra warning was probably good. Radio and TV would break in for the new thunderstorm warning but not for the continuing tropical storm warning. Also I just lost power and I was only on the edge with 30 to 40 mph gusts.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4195 Postby syfr » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:50 pm

Hard to believe anyone thought that tower wounds stay vertical through the expected winds....
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4196 Postby psyclone » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:53 pm

RL3AO wrote:
psyclone wrote:Why does the NWS issue a severe thunderstorm warning for winds up to 60mph when said area is already under a TS warning which technically covers winds up to 64kt?


I think it's a combo of these winds relating more to mixing of cold and dry air downward instead of from the pressure gradient of the TS. Plus it's impacting a major population center during rush hour so the extra warning was probably good. Radio and TV would break in for the new thunderstorm warning but not for the continuing tropical storm warning. Also I just lost power and I was only on the edge with 30 to 40 mph gusts.


I think they should pick one and go with it. It's redundant. They could have easily have issued a special weather statement about the incoming winds (which have already been warned for with a TS warning) or they could have dumped the tropical headlines in favor of a high wind warning...which could have been more time specific wrt timing
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4197 Postby bob rulz » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:55 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
StruThiO wrote:The consensus does seem to be the intensity should be bumped up. We'll see. The damage seems consistent with a category 5.




Is there much of a difference damage-wise between a very strong Cat 4 and a low-end (can't really say weak) 5? How do they tell?


We can tell that the damage seems more consistent with that of Andrew and Maria (on Dominica landfall) than with, say, Charley or Hugo (although still weaker than Irma in the Caribbean). So in other words, yes, it is possible to tell. Consistent with a 160mph landfall imo. Also there were enough meteorological measurements (flight-level winds) and just enough of a gap in surface wind data right before landfall that it's believable it made it to 140kts prior to landfall. Of course, the NHC are the experts, and we'll have to wait a few months to see what they find in post-analysis.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4198 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:48 pm

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4199 Postby PandaCitrus » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:10 pm

Wow, the shopping center in Panama City at the end of the drone video looks just like the Cutler Ridge Mall did during Hurricane Andrew. Demolished. There were clearly some metovortices and microbursts all over Micheal's eyewall. These "streaks" of probably 175mph+ wind gusts look very similar to tornado damage. One structure demolished and surrounding structures untouched or with moderate damage.

 https://twitter.com/BN9/status/1050467815633883140


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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4200 Postby StruThiO » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:14 pm

Incredible the areal extent of severe weather associated with this thing. A beast even this far inland. Hope not too many were caught off guard
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