ATL: MICHAEL - Models

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ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:23 pm

Models here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:30 pm

Image Euro has a depression or storm by Monday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:30 pm

12z Euro landfall at 144hrs

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#4 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:42 pm

12Z Euro has it stalling/turning SE in N FL.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#5 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:43 pm

SHIPS is not aggressive with strengthening 91L much.

Code: Select all

* ATLANTIC     2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL912018  10/05/18  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    28    29    29    29    30    33    40    44    49    50    54
V (KT) LAND       25    26    28    29    29    29    30    33    40    44    49    50    42
V (KT) LGEM       25    27    27    28    27    26    26    26    27    28    29    30    28
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        21    23    22    23    21    22    25    25    16    20    16    20    20
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     1     1     1     2     2     0    -4    -1     0     0     1    -2
SHEAR DIR        265   263   268   272   277   283   265   282   298   291   307   279   233
SST (C)         28.9  29.0  28.9  29.1  29.2  29.3  29.4  29.6  29.4  29.1  28.6  28.5  28.6
POT. INT. (KT)   148   149   147   150   151   154   156   160   158   155   147   145   147
ADJ. POT. INT.   137   137   135   137   137   139   141   146   147   145   136   131   129
200 MB T (C)   -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8
200 MB VXT (C)   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.5   0.5   0.5   0.2   0.7   0.6   0.8   0.8
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     6     5     7     6     8     7     9     8     8     7     8
700-500 MB RH     74    77    78    77    75    77    72    71    68    67    68    66    71
MODEL VTX (KT)    10    11    12    12    12    12    14    15    19    21    22    21    22
850 MB ENV VOR    79    91    85    75    71    75    68    84    69    56    56    -3    32
200 MB DIV        72    66    53    36    62    72    37    44    58    25    36    54    64
700-850 TADV      -3    -3    -4    -4    -5    -3     0     6     8    21    17    23    11
LAND (KM)         21    48    78   114   138   187   158   144   127   112   328   160   -78
LAT (DEG N)     16.0  16.3  16.6  16.9  17.1  17.5  18.3  19.2  20.7  22.8  25.6  28.4  31.2
LONG(DEG W)     84.3  84.7  85.0  85.3  85.5  85.9  86.1  86.1  85.7  85.3  85.4  86.1  86.4
STM SPEED (KT)     5     4     4     3     3     3     4     6     9    13    15    14    14
HEAT CONTENT      31    36    41    44    46    47    54    60    82    49    32    29     4

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/  5      CX,CY:  -2/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  650  (MEAN=619)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  13.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  28.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            1.6
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#6 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:45 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro has it stalling/turning SE in N FL.


Looks like Destin FL landfall, into Albany GA, then SE to just around Jacksonville/Amelia Island
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#7 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:45 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro has it stalling/turning SE in N FL.


Because it shows getting left behind by the trough, makes sense because of persistent ridging across the eastern US due to the persistent +NAO pattern.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#8 Postby shiny-pebble » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:46 pm

GFS has this regenerating over the subtropics after it forms.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#9 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:58 pm

euro does a loop e loop and gets it back in gulf

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=240
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#10 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:29 pm

The reason why the 12z GFS strengthens 91L so much as it tracks over the northern GOM, basically no windshear over it. Lets see what wxman57 has to say about its trusty gfs windshear forecast :wink:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#11 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:53 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#12 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:02 pm

Please stay on the topic of 91L model runs and discussion about those runs. Other posts and one liners subject to deletion.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#13 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:08 pm

look at all the Euro members showing a small loop or stalling and heading wnw with a few now into texas..

still many many factors.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#14 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:46 pm

18z gfs running lets see what, if any, changes there will be now there is an invest location and info in the models.

probably not much but we will find out..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#15 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:52 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:18z gfs running lets see what, if any, changes there will be now there is an invest location and info in the models.

probably not much but we will find out..

It’s a bit stronger at 72 and a bit farther east
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#16 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:53 pm

So far a little stronger and little farther north but with less shear and a small anticyclone building over it. through 72 hours
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#17 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:53 pm

18z GFS slightly stronger through 72 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#18 Postby HurricaneBelle » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:54 pm

Models seem to think it's Destin-ed to hit the panhandle.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#19 Postby Buck » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:59 pm

Im in Atlanta and this might end up being good for us rain-wise and to bring some cooler air down... still swelteringly hot here.

But hopefully not a monster in the making!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#20 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:01 pm

nice upper high built in over it... deepening faster now..

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